Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.56% on January 27, with *ST Rock leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% [1]. Group 1: Liquor Sector Performance - The closing prices and performance of key liquor stocks showed mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai slightly up by 0.08% at 1343.01, while several others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao saw declines of 1.29% and 0.06% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume for Kweichow Moutai was 48,400 hands, with a transaction value of 6.515 billion yuan, while Wuliangye had a trading volume of 225,300 hands and a transaction value of 2.284 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 386 million yuan from institutional investors and 289 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 675 million yuan [2]. - Specific stocks like Kweichow Moutai experienced a net inflow of 39.8 million yuan from institutional investors, while *ST Rock had a net outflow of 68,400 yuan [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (product code: 515170) tracked the sub-index of the food and beverage industry, showing a decline of 2.01% over the past five days, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.31 times [5]. - The Consumer ETF (product code: 510630) tracked the main consumer industry index, with a decline of 1.52% over the past five days and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.22 times [6].

记者丨肖夏 编辑丨高梦阳 又一家白酒品牌牵手明星。 1月26日，沱牌酒官方账号宣布，刘晓庆和喜剧达人杨雨光担任"沱牌特级嘴替"，刘晓庆还将在1月31日 晚做客沱牌官方旗舰店的抖音直播。 沱牌酒是舍得酒业旗下品牌，也是舍得酒业的品牌基点，在第五届全国评酒会上获评全国名酒，近年其 主推的是沱牌特级T68高线光瓶酒以及主打复古情怀的沱牌曲酒。 随着马年春节渐近，白酒消费即将进入旺季。最近一个多月来，官宣明星代言的白酒品牌越来越多。 前些年白酒不愁卖，明星代言并不多见。但最近一两年，白酒的经营主线转向促进动销，更接近大众消 费品的营销逻辑，越来越需要借助明星的影响力。 于是包括邓紫棋、刘涛乃至已经出道40年梁朝伟，都第一次代言了白酒产品。 去年12月中旬，水井坊宣布梁朝伟成为"水井坊·第一坊"品牌代言人。今年1月，谷小酒宣布罗永浩成为 谷小酒品牌推荐官，牛栏山则找来岳云鹏成为品牌代言人，古井贡酒官宣刘涛成为品牌的"新春派福 官"。 外界感到意外之余，仔细观察又觉得合情合理。去年以来，白酒品牌邀请明星代言，基本上就是两个诉 求。 一是立品牌、树形象。 五粮液的29度一见倾心邀请邓紫棋代言，茅台文旅邀请张艺兴代言，目的都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of liquor brands, particularly in the baijiu sector, engaging celebrities for endorsements to enhance brand image and drive sales as the consumption season approaches [3][5]. Group 1: Celebrity Endorsements in Baijiu - Tuo Pai Jiu has appointed Liu Xiaoqing and comedian Yang Yuguang as brand ambassadors, with Liu set to host a live stream on Douyin [1]. - The trend of celebrity endorsements in the baijiu industry has surged recently, with brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu also announcing high-profile endorsements [3][5]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies - The primary goals of these endorsements are to establish brand identity and enhance sales. Brands like Wuliangye and Moutai are targeting younger consumers by collaborating with popular figures [6]. - Tuo Pai Jiu and Gu Xiao Jiu are focusing on more relatable and accessible celebrities to resonate with their target demographic, which is primarily middle-market consumers [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Dynamics - The appeal of celebrities does not strictly correlate with age; for instance, Liu Xiaoqing has gained popularity among younger audiences through her candid appearances on variety shows [8]. - Brands are also adopting cost-effective marketing strategies, such as leveraging events like the Australian Open to boost visibility during peak consumption periods [8].

Group 1: Brand Collaborations and Marketing Strategies - Tuo Pai Jiu has announced celebrity endorsements with Liu Xiaoqing and Yang Yuguang, aiming to enhance brand visibility through live streaming on Douyin [1] - The trend of celebrity endorsements in the liquor industry is increasing, with brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu also engaging well-known figures to boost sales and brand image [3][5] - The shift in marketing strategy reflects a move towards more consumer-friendly approaches, with brands seeking to connect with younger audiences through relatable celebrities [6][8] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The white liquor production in China has seen a significant decline, with a 19% drop in December 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline [9][11] - The total production for 2025 was reported at 354.9 million liters, a cumulative decrease of 12.1% [9][11] - The changing landscape of the liquor market is evident, with a notable increase in the import of white spirits, particularly vodka and tequila, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Yanghe Co. has projected a significant decline in profits for 2025, estimating earnings between 2.116 billion to 2.524 billion yuan, a decrease of 62% to 68% year-on-year [28] - The company attributes this downturn to intensified competition and reduced market demand, particularly affecting mid-range and high-end products [28] - Yanghe has also announced a new cash dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 100% of the net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [29]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Distillery falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujinggongjiu and Shuiwangfang dropping over 2% [1][2] - The recent performance reflects broader market trends, indicating a challenging environment for the food and beverage industry [1][3] Group 2 - The addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "i Moutai" is a strategic response to increased order volumes and winter logistics challenges, enhancing customer experience [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.39, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [3][4] - Analysts predict a market trend where sectors like snacks and dairy are favored due to clear growth prospects, while the liquor sector is expected to stabilize as demand increases with the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) is heavily invested in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai and Yili [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on high-quality stocks [4][5] - Recent reports suggest that the liquor industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with potential for valuation improvement as economic conditions gradually enhance [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.

一宗易主传言，牵出一家低调酒业巨头。 1月20日，水井坊预告2025年业绩，净利大幅下滑超七成。此前，市场上已有大股东帝亚吉欧将其出售 的猜测。 川酒集团，成为"绯闻"买家之一。 1月中旬，川酒董事长曹勇刚刚率队上门考察。曹称，水井坊"为川酒集团建设'中国白酒梦工厂'提供了 经验"。 这家成立仅8年的酒企，志在跻身"中国白酒第一方阵"。2025年末，曹勇抛出蓝图，到2030年，营收突 破450亿元、利税达到30亿元。 若拿下水井坊，其兑现愿景可跨出一大步。 百亿巨头 在大多数酒企艰难过冬的时刻，曹勇高调展露野心。 他的底气来自业绩，2024年，川酒的营收规模达380亿元，资产规模较成立以来增长了26倍。 "过去8年，川酒集团累计营收近2000亿元，已经发展成在全国有一定影响力的酒业大集团。" 曹勇在2025年末放话。 以2024年的380亿营收来看，这一体量超过当年的"行业老三"山西汾酒（360.11亿元），跻身前三。 只是，川酒集团的定位，更像是一家白酒产业整合和服务平台。 其业务收入中，有相当一部分是为其他酒企供应原酒，属于B端业务。官网介绍，川酒是中国最大的原 酒生产商和供应商。 "实现了产能60万吨、 ...

作者︱懂酒哥 白酒行业的回调期仍在持续，水井坊的业绩崩塌与股权传闻，成为次高端赛道困局与川酒资源整合的典型观察样本。 日前，水井坊披露2025年度业绩预告，公司全年营收同比锐减42%至30.38亿元，归母净利润暴跌71%至3.92亿元，扣非归母净利润也同比下降71%至3.81亿 元。以此数据回看此前的业绩，水井坊将创下2018年以来的净利润最低值。 而比业绩崩塌更牵动行业神经的，是水井坊即将被出售的持续传闻。在白酒行业并购重组的政策东风下，水井坊的股权变局不仅关乎企业自身命运，更成为 川酒资源整合的重要试金石，其背后是次高端赛道的残酷竞争，更是本土白酒产业与外资资本的博弈与抉择。 二十年外资联姻或将陌路 根据业绩预告，水井坊方面表示，2025年白酒行业受宏观经济周期、产业调整周期及政策调整等多重因素影响，进入深度调整阶段，传统商务宴请等消费场 景恢复较缓，行业库存整体处于高位。面对外部环境变化，公司坚持稳中求进的经营方针，围绕"平衡基础、深化调整、夯实发展"三个方向开展主动管理。 主动调整的背后，水井坊早已深陷经营困局。首当其冲的便是现金流与资金链全面承压，2025年前三季度，公司经营活动现金流净额为-8.6 ...

方正证券研报指出，水井坊2025年预计实现营业收入30.38亿元，同比下降42%；实现归母净利润3.92亿 元，同比下降71%，其中25Q4预计实现归母净利润0.66亿元，同比下降69.52%。在行业整体承压的背景 下，水井坊坚持长期主义，通过稳健的经营举措稳固公司基本盘、提振渠道信心，持续推动既定战略的 有序落地，以实现品牌的健康发展。预计公司25-27年实现营业收入30.17/31.76/35.52亿元，实现归母净 利润3.92/3.95/4.45亿元，PE分别为48.42/47.99/42.61x，给予"推荐"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, attributed to deep industry adjustments and a strategic contraction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 42% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 381 million yuan, also down 71% [1] - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase in 2025 due to macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional consumption scenarios recovering slowly [1] - Overall industry inventory levels are high, impacting performance [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company prioritizes maintaining channel health by controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel fund safety to lay a healthy foundation for future growth [2] - Measures include product suspension, optimizing promotional policies, and enhancing market order management to stabilize channel confidence and pricing [2] - The company has integrated channel inventory management into core KPIs to maintain channel profitability and healthy sales [2] Group 4: Long-term Development - Despite short-term performance pressure, the company aims to improve channel inventory quality, pricing stability, and distribution structure for future growth [2] - The company continues to invest long-term, optimizing expense efficiency and improving productivity measures [2] - New product "Shuijingfang·Jing 18" was launched, with a dual limit strategy on annual volume and partner numbers to create product scarcity [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company maintains a long-term perspective, expecting revenues of 3.017 billion yuan, 3.176 billion yuan, and 3.552 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 392 million yuan, 395 million yuan, and 445 million yuan respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are 48.42, 47.99, and 42.61 for the same period [3]