2026年的A股市场，指数在震荡中缓慢上行，但个股行情却冰火两重天。 很多散户朋友每天追逐涨停板、跟风热门题材，结果往往是高位被套、来回亏损。 然而，就在市场喧嚣的背后，一股"聪明钱"正在悄然行动。 以社保、公募、外资为代表的主力资金，正避开人声鼎沸的热门股，默默建仓一批看似低调、 实则内核强大的公司。 这些公司不是靠故事和概念炒作，它们普遍拥有五大特征：身处国家重点支持的高景气赛道、近三年业绩持续增长、当前估值处于 历史低位、拥有难以替代的技术壁垒、并且获得了中长期机构的持续加仓。 它们就像武侠小说里的"扫地僧"，平时不显山露水，却身怀绝技。 本文将为你 揭开这10只被主力悄悄看中的"隐形冠军"面纱，看看它们究竟凭什么能成为穿越市场周期的底气。 厦门钨业是一家拥有钨、稀土、锂电材料三大主业的资源巨头。 市场通常把它看作传统的周期品公司，忽视了其在新材料领域的成长性。 2025年，公司实 现营业收入464.69亿元，同比增长31.37%；归母净利润23.11亿元，同比增长35.08%。 在钨业务上，它是全球APT产能第一的企业，光伏切割用的钨丝全球 市占率超过80%。 在新能源材料领域，它的子公司厦钨新能是宁 ...

中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 中国人民银行联合国家金融监督管理总局近日发布我国系统重要性银行名单。据公示，为构建覆盖全面 的宏观审慎管理体系，强化系统重要性金融机构监管，监管开展了2025年度我国系统重要性银行评估， 认定21家国内系统重要性银行。 值得注意的是，此次共有5家城商行入围。《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，入围的中小银行将通过满 足更高的监管标准，全面提升自身稳健经营水平和市场竞争力，未来或会有更多符合条件的头部中小银 行进入名单。 目前，我国金融系统性监管框架已基本建立。系统重要性银行评估是宏观审慎管理的重要支柱，但其效 力的充分发挥，有赖于一个涵盖识别、监测、处置的全链条、多维度监管体系的持续建设与优化。 面临更高监管要求 长三角科技产业金融研究联盟秘书长陆岷峰指出，入围银行也将面临更严格的恢复与处置计划（RRP） 要求，包括制定详尽的"生前遗嘱"，这对于其公司治理、风险管理和数据治理能力提出更高的要求。 为把控风险，入围银行的经营行为将受到更严密的审视。陆岷峰告诉记者，作为金融体系的"关键节 点"，其业务规模、复杂性、关联性和可替代性均被置于放大镜下。监管机构会对其大额风险暴露、同 业业务、交叉 ...

不过，部分地区银行业金融机构的风险指标出现波动。河北银行业金融机构不良贷款余额从2025年三季 度末的1672.5亿元增至四季度末的2143.6亿元，不良贷款率上升0.45个百分点，至2.09%。 ● 本报记者吴杨 近日，北京、江西、江苏、陕西等地金融监管局陆续披露2025年四季度及全年银行业监管统计指标，区 域性银行经营"家底"相继浮出水面。在这份年度"成绩单"中，各地银行业在资产规模、资产质量等方面 表现不尽相同，既折射出区域经济发展的成色，也预示着在息差收窄与竞争加剧的背景下，行业正站在 从规模扩张向质量优先转型的关键节点。 区域分化显著 从最能体现行业"家底"的总资产指标来看，北京、江苏、浙江等地银行业作为第一梯队，其规模优势显 著。数据显示，截至2025年末，北京银行业金融机构总资产38.11万亿元。江苏与浙江两个经济强省也 不逊色，江苏银行（600919）业金融机构总资产36.72万亿元，较年初增长10.35%，展现出强劲的增长 韧性；浙江银行业金融机构总资产33.45万亿元。 与此同时，部分地区银行业追赶势头迅猛。在西部地区，陕西、重庆等地银行业金融机构总资产稳步提 升。例如，2025年末，陕西 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry has shown a recovery in profit growth, with net profit for commercial banks increasing by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.35 percentage points [13][14] - The overall asset growth of commercial banks continued, with total assets increasing by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, while loan growth slightly decreased to 7.26% year-on-year [29][30] - Net interest margin stabilized for two consecutive quarters at 1.42%, with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026 [54] Summary by Sections Performance - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.25%, -2.84%, 12.87%, and 4.57% respectively [13][14] - The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.33 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points respectively [13] Scale - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, with state-owned banks showing a growth rate of 10.78% [29][30] - Loan growth for commercial banks was 7.26% year-on-year, with city commercial banks experiencing a counter-cyclical increase in loan growth [29][30] Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.50 basis points [54] - Expectations for 2026 indicate potential downward pressure on net interest margins in Q1, but a gradual recovery is anticipated thereafter [54] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.50%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.00 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio was 205.21% [54] Capital - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 10.92%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05 percentage points [54]

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Lunar New Year misalignment has disrupted the deposit growth rhythm, with a continued trend of personal fixed deposits migrating from small to large banks [2][4]. - On the asset side, credit growth continues to slow down, with a significant increase in short-term loans, particularly among large banks [4]. Summary by Sections Liabilities - The Lunar New Year misalignment has caused disturbances in deposit growth [3]. - Total deposits increased by CNY 3.5 trillion year-on-year, with demand deposits and fixed deposits increasing by CNY 2.5 trillion and decreasing by CNY 912 billion, respectively [5]. Assets - Total loans decreased by CNY 489.3 billion year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing decreases of CNY 213 billion and CNY 276.3 billion, respectively [4]. - Short-term loans increased by CNY 347.8 billion year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by CNY 377.2 billion [4]. - Large banks saw a year-on-year increase of CNY 419.7 billion in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a decrease of CNY 718 million [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment in the banking sector: 1. Identifying targets with expected performance growth, recommending banks like Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [6]. 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank [6]. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending banks such as Bank of Communications and Jiangsu Bank [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].