中国海油（600938.SH）2024 年一季报点评 产量业绩超预期，成本压降空间持续挖潜 2024 年 04 月 26 日 8/18 ➢ 事件：2024 年 4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年第一季度报告。2024 年一季 度，公司实现营业收入 1114.68 亿元，同比增长 14.1%；实现归母净利润 397.19 亿元，同比增长 23.7%；实现扣非归母净利润 394.75 亿元，同比增长 25.5%。 ➢ 产量超预期增长，海外产量增速高达 17%。24Q1，公司实现油气产量 180.1 百万桶油当量，同比增长 9.9%。分区域来看，国内得益于新油气田投产实现产 量 123.2 百万桶油当量，同比增长 6.9%，占总净产量的 68.4%；国外产量为 56.9 百万桶油当量，同比增长 17.1%，占总净产量的 31.6%，高增长主要得益于圭亚 那和加拿大的产量贡献。分品种来看，石油液体产量为 140.7 百万桶，同比增长 9.6%；天然气产量为 2295 亿立方英尺，同比增长 10.6%。 ➢ 油价同比增长，天然气以量补价。据 wind 数据，24Q1，布伦特原油期货价 格同比下滑 0.4%至 81 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------|-------------------------------|--------|--------|-------|-----------------------------------------|-------| | | | [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业总收入 | ( 百万元 ) | | | | 422,230 416,609 475,724 509,805 530,407 | | | | 增长率 | YoY% | 71.6% | -1.3% | 14.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | | | ( 百万元 ) | 归属母公司净利润 | | | | 141,700 123,843 165,035 178,322 187,142 | | | | 增长率 | YoY% | 101.5% | -12.6% | 33.3% | 8.1% | 4.9% | | ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has significantly increased its oil and gas exploration and development efforts, leading to steady growth in net oil and gas production In Q1 2024, the company achieved a total net production of 180 1 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), a year-on-year increase of 9 9% [5] - Domestic net production reached 123 2 million BOE, up 6 9% YoY, driven by new project contributions Overseas net production was 56 9 million BOE, up 16 9% YoY, primarily due to increased output from Guyana and Canada [5] - The company made 2 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 4 oil and gas structures in Q1 2024 Notably, the evaluation of the Bozhong 8-3 South structure in China opened a new frontier for ultra-deepwater oil and gas exploration [5] - The company's average realized oil price in Q1 2024 was $78 75 per barrel, up 6 2% YoY, while the average realized gas price was $7 69 per thousand cubic feet, down 7 7% YoY The company's cost per barrel decreased by 2 2% to $27 59, enhancing profitability [6] - Capital expenditure in Q1 2024 was approximately RMB 29 01 billion, up 17 3% YoY, driven by increased construction projects and adjustment well activities [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 111 468 billion, up 14 1% YoY Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 39 719 billion, up 23 7% YoY and 51 6% quarter-on-quarter [16] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are RMB 444 8 billion, RMB 480 64 billion, and RMB 500 42 billion, respectively EPS is projected to be RMB 3 05, RMB 3 26, and RMB 3 53, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 5x, 8 9x, and 8 2x [8][9] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, with forecasts of 20 0%, 19 7%, and 19 6% for 2024-2026 [9] Production and Exploration - The company is on track to achieve its 2024 oil and gas production target of 700-720 million BOE, supported by the successful commissioning of the Suizhong 36-1/Lvda 5-2 oilfield secondary adjustment project and other ongoing projects [5] - The new discovery of the Bluefin structure in Guyana's Stabroek block has further expanded the block's reserves in the southeastern region [5] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditure, with 2024 guidance of RMB 125-135 billion Q1 2024 capital expenditure accounted for only 21 5%-23% of the annual target, indicating significant spending in the remaining quarters [37] - The company's capital expenditure and production levels are expected to remain high, with a growth rate in oil and gas extraction plans exceeding that of other major industry players over the next three years [37] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of the report date was RMB 28 85, with a 52-week range of RMB 17 55-30 58 [14] - The company's market capitalization was RMB 1,372 3 billion, with a circulating share capital of 2,842 million shares and an average daily trading volume of RMB 8 3555 billion [2]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/石油天然气 证券研究报告 中国海油（600938）公司季报点评 2024 年 04 月 26 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 股票数据 | | | 04 [ Table_StockInfo 月 25 日收盘价（元） ] | 28.85 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 17.39-31.10 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 47567/2842 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 1372301/1368027 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《油气产量十年复合增长率 | 5% 以上》 | | 2024.03.22 《油气产量增长，调高全年资本支出预算》 2023.10.25 | | | 《油气产量稳步增长》 市场表现 | 2023.08.19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------ ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化 2024 年 4 月 25 日 中国海油 (600938) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 现 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 25 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 28.85 | | 一年内最高/ 最低（元） | 31.1/17.39 | | 市净率 息率（分红 / 股价） | 1.9 1.88 | | 流 通 A 股市值（百万 | 81987 | | 元） | | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 3052.90/9264.48 | | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 03 月 31 日 | | 每股净资产（元） ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|---------|---------|--------------------------|--------|--------| | 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | | | 营业收入（亿元） | 4,222 | 4,166 | 4,312 | 4,616 | 4,746 | | 营业收入增长率 | 71.56% | -1.33% | 3.50% | 7.06% | 2.80% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | 1,417 | 1,238 | 1,457 | 1,582 | 1,639 | | 归母净利润增长率 | 101.51% | -12.60% | 17.68% | 8.53% | 3.63% | | EPS （元） | 2.98 | 2.60 | 3.06 | 3.33 | 3.45 | | ROE （归属母公司 ) （摊薄） | 23.73% | 18.58% | 18.66% | 17.50% | 15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in oil and gas production, with total production reaching 180 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.88% [2][14]. - The company has increased its capital expenditure to 28.72 billion RMB in Q1 2024, up 16.81% year-on-year, supporting its oil and gas production efforts [2][14]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 78.75 USD per barrel, despite a slight decline in Brent crude oil prices [3][9]. - The company has successfully managed its oil production costs, which decreased by 2.23% year-on-year to 27.59 USD per barrel [3][13]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1114.68 billion RMB, a 14.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397.19 billion RMB, up 23.70% year-on-year [8][24]. Production and Capital Expenditure - The company is responding to calls for increased reserves and production, maintaining high levels of capital expenditure, which is expected to support ongoing production growth [2][14]. - New projects, including the Suizhong 26-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields, are progressing ahead of schedule, with peak production expected in 2025 [2][14]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 15%, 14%, and 14% respectively, with projected net profits of 155 billion RMB, 160 billion RMB, and 165 billion RMB for those years [2][24]. - The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are expected to be 3.26 RMB, 3.36 RMB, and 3.47 RMB, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.85X, 8.58X, and 8.31X [2][24].

中国海油（600938.SH） 买入 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|----------|------------|------------|----------------------------------|------------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 422,230 | 416,609 | 454,615 | 482,283 | 497,484 | | (+/-%) | 71.6% | -1.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 141700 | 123843 | 149798 | 156357 | 163329 | | (+/-%) | 101.5% | -12.6% | 21.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.88 | 2.60 | 3.15 | 3.29 | 3.43 | | EBIT ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告(AH)·油气开采Ⅱ 中国海油（ 600938.SH ） / 中国海洋石油 （00883.HK） 2024 年一季报点评：经营情况大超预期！ 2024 年 04 月 26 日 买入(维持)-A /买入(维持)-H | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 422,230 | 416,609 | 458,447 | 491,953 | 513,749 | | 同比（ % ） | 71.56 | (1.33) | 10.04 | 7.31 | 4.43 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 141,700 | 123,843 | 150,015 | 163,547 | 172,914 | | 同比（ % ） | 101.51 | (12.6 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：600938 证券简称：中国海油 公告编号：2024-009 重要内容提示 公司首席执行官及总裁周心怀先生、首席财务官及会计机构负责人王欣女士声明：保证季度报告中财 务信息的真实、准确、完整。 1.1 按照中国企业会计准则编制的主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：百万元 币种：人民币 1 / 10 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-----------|-----------|-------| | | | | | | 总资产 | 1,055,179 | 1,005,598 | 4.9 | | 归属于母公司股东的所有 | | | | | 者权益 | 706,483 | 666,586 | 6.0 | 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第 1 号——非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为的 非经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第 1 号——非经常 ...