4月19日，油气开采板块领涨全市场，石化ETF（159731）持续拉升，截至10:09，涨幅1.93%，在全市 场ETF中涨幅靠前。持仓股兴发集团、鲁西化工涨超6%，盐湖股份、藏格矿业、亚钾国际涨超4%，“三 桶油”集体拉升。 浙商证券表示，油气开采，全球石化行业资本开支不足，叠加OPEC+依然存在减产意愿，预计未来原 油供给端增长有限，即便需求下调，原油生产国仍有能力将原油维持在供需紧平衡的状态，受益于油价 维持在较高水平区间内，预计上游原油龙头具备稳定的盈利能力，建议关注低估值高分红油气龙头。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）：跟踪中证石化产业指数（H11057.CSI），由中 证800指数样本股中的石化产业股票组成，以反映该产业公司股票的整体表现。从申万一级行业分布来 看，指数以基础化工和石油石化行业为主，权重占比合计93%，前十大重仓股中涵盖了“三桶油”——中 国石油、中国石化、中国海油，权重占比合计超25%。 ...

Company Overview - The report focuses on **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)** (600938 SH), a Hong Kong-based investment holding company established on August 20, 1999, primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and trade [5] - CNOOC operates in markets including China, Canada, the UK, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Brazil, with its business segments covering conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas activities [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, CNOOC achieved **RMB 4160 09 billion** in revenue, a **1 33% YoY decline**, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **RMB 1238 43 billion**, down **12 60% YoY** [5] - Despite a **19 29% YoY decline** in Brent crude oil prices to **USD 82 56 per barrel**, CNOOC's cost control was strong, with its main oil cost per barrel decreasing by **5 13%** to **USD 28 83** [5] - The company's oil and gas production reached a **5-year high** at **678 0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)**, exceeding its initial target of **650-660 million BOE** and marking an **8 65% YoY increase** [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to increase its oil and gas production to **700-720**, **780-800**, and **810-830 million BOE** in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of **4 72%**, **11 27%**, and **3 80%**, respectively [5] - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 rose **27 46% YoY** to **RMB 1279 13 billion**, with a projected range of **RMB 1250-1350 billion** for 2024 to support further production growth [5] - CNOOC expects to launch several new projects in 2024, including the **Bozhong 19-2 oilfield development project**, **Deep Sea No 1 Phase II project**, and **Brazil's Mero3 project**, enhancing its growth potential [5] Dividend Policy - In 2023, CNOOC distributed **RMB 53 934 billion** in cash dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of **44%** [5] - The company's A-share dividend yield was **5 44%**, while its H-share dividend yield reached **9 62%** [5] - Since its listing in April 2022, CNOOC has paid cash dividends **3 times**, totaling **RMB 80 745 billion**, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of **32 78%** and a total return ratio (including share repurchases) of **80 44%** [5] Valuation and Investment Rating - The report forecasts CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 to be **RMB 4349 88 billion**, **RMB 4612 20 billion**, and **RMB 4876 00 billion**, respectively, with net profits of **RMB 1312 10 billion**, **RMB 1478 85 billion**, and **RMB 1554 54 billion** [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 2 76**, **RMB 3 11**, and **RMB 3 27**, with corresponding PE ratios of **10 85x**, **9 62x**, and **9 16x** [12] - The report upgrades CNOOC's rating to **"Strongly Recommend"** based on its strong cost control, stable earnings, and growth potential [20] Industry Context - The oil and gas industry is influenced by global economic trends, with **Brent crude oil prices** averaging **USD 82 56 per barrel** in 2023, down **19 29% YoY** [5] - CNOOC's performance in 2023 was resilient, with its profit decline being less severe than the drop in oil prices, highlighting its operational efficiency and cost management [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Insights - The exploration potential for offshore oil and gas, particularly in deep water, is significant due to low discovery rates compared to onshore resources. As of 2017, the proven reserves for onshore oil and gas were 36.72% and 47.01%, respectively, while offshore oil and gas were only 23.70% and 30.55% [1][3]. - The company has made several significant discoveries in offshore oil and gas resources recently, including the Bozhong 26-6 oil field with over 40 million cubic meters of geological reserves and the largest deep-water oil field discovered in the South China Sea [11][24]. Summary by Sections Exploration Potential - Offshore oil and gas exploration is still in its early stages, with substantial potential for discovery. The proven rates decrease significantly with water depth, with shallow water (less than 400 meters) having a discovery rate of 28.05%, deep water (400-2000 meters) at 13.84%, and ultra-deep water (greater than 2000 meters) at 7.69% for oil [3][12]. - Investment in offshore oil and gas exploration has been increasing, with expenditures surpassing $100 billion in 2022, indicating a high level of industry activity and potential for future discoveries [5][12]. Company Performance - The company has a robust resource base, with confirmed net reserves of approximately 6.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of the end of 2023, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth. Domestic net reserves account for 4.05 billion barrels, up 12.6% year-on-year [34]. - The company achieved a net production of 6.78 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, marking an 8.7% increase compared to the previous year [34]. Regional Insights - The Bohai Sea is the company's primary oil production area, with confirmed reserves of 196.84 million barrels and a production rate of 599,847 barrels per day in 2023, representing a 7.55% increase year-on-year [47]. - The South China Sea's western oil fields have a reserve of 861.9 million barrels, while the eastern oil fields have reserves of 892.6 million barrels, with production rates increasing by 5.14% and 5.50%, respectively [55][56].

证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Range] 52 周内价格范围 16.47-30.58 市值（百万元） 1,334,248 22% 28% 35% 42% 49% 55% 237512 257598 277685 297772 317859 337945 22A 23A 24E 25E 26E 净资产(现金)/净负债 净负债(现金)(百万) 净负债/净资产(%) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------|--------|-------------|-----------|------------|------------|----------|-------------------| | 表 1 \n日期 \n代码 | 可比公司估值对比 \n3/27/2024 \n简称 | 收盘价 | 单位 | 市值 | 单位 | 每股净资产 | 单位 | 市净率（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [26][27]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 416.609 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 123.843 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][6][24]. - The company achieved record high oil and gas net production, with an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, exceeding its annual production target [24]. - The average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 was $82.17 per barrel, a decrease of 17.07% year-on-year, but the company's performance decline was less than the drop in oil prices [24][25]. - The company emphasizes cost control and efficiency improvements, with major cost advantages highlighted, as the average cost per barrel was $28.83, down 5.13% year-on-year [6][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 416.609 billion yuan, with a net profit of 123.843 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.6% [4][6]. - The company paid a total dividend of 1.25 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 44% [4][7]. Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures throughout exploration, development, and production, establishing a competitive cost advantage in the industry [6][24]. - The main operational cost was $28.83 per barrel, with significant reductions in various cost components, including operating expenses and depreciation [6][24]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that oil prices will stabilize between $80 and $100 per barrel, with potential for further increases depending on geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production agreements [25]. - Projected net production targets for 2024-2026 are set at 700-720 million, 780-800 million, and 810-830 million barrels of oil equivalent, indicating steady growth [25]. Valuation - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.83 yuan, 3.12 yuan, and 3.26 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.68X, 8.75X, and 8.38X [26].

公司研究 [Table_Title] 持续夯实增储上产，高盈利+高分红价值凸显 ——中国海油（600938）点评报告 事件: 2023Q4 单季度，公司实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比-1.2%，环比 -4.3%；实现归母净利润为 262 亿元，同比-20.4%，环比-22.7%；扣非 后归母净利润 294.8 亿元；经营活动现金流净额为 507 亿元。销售毛利 率为 50.7%，同比+1.6pct，环比+3.9pct；销售净利率为 24.1%，同比降 低 5.6pct，环比降低 2.5pct。 克服油价震荡业绩维持稳健，桶油主要成本同比下降 5.1% 桶油作业成本方面，2023 年公司桶油主要成本为 28.83 美元/桶油当量， 同比-5.1%，其中作业费用同比下降 2.6%，主要是汇率变动和产量增长 的综合影响，折旧、折耗和摊销同比下降 4.1%，主要是产量结构变化及 相关报告 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 汇率变动的综合影响；除所得税以外的其他税项同比下降 10.7%，主要 是油价下降的影响。公司坚持实施提质降本增效，桶油作业费用处于国 际同业前列，进一步夯实成本竞争优势。 20 ...

2024 年 03 月 25 日 证券研究报告 中国海油(600938) CAPEX 适配产量增长，降本增效成果显著 ➢ 油气净产量及净证实储量连续 6 年稳步提升 ➢ 资本开支适配产量增长，新增项目稳步推进 考虑到国际油价中枢有望维持在中高位，公司增储上产稳步推进，我们预 计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 4375.41/4580.54/4658.63 亿元，同 比+5.02%/+4.69%/+1.70%,归母净利润分别为 1377.52/1486.58/1553.04 亿元，EPS 分别为 2.90/3.13/3.26 元/股，建议持续关注。 风险提示：中东地缘政治事件风险；石油和天然气价格波动风险；石油和 天然气需求恢复不及预期风险。 作者 行 业： 石油石化/油气开采Ⅱ 投资评级： 当前价格： 27.31 元 目标价格： 公司发布 2023 年年报，全年实现营业收入 4166 亿元（同比-1%），归母净 利润 1238 亿元（同比-13%）。其中 2023Q4 单季实现营业收入 1098 亿元（同 比-1%，环比-4%），归母净利润 262 亿元（同比-20%，环比-23%）。 ➢ 技术助 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 416.609 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123.843 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling oil prices [1][6]. - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction and production increase strategies, achieving a net oil and gas production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, marking a historical high for five consecutive years [1][6]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio, proposing a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.25 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 43.6%, higher than the previous year's 42.7% [1][6]. - The company has intensified exploration efforts, discovering nine new fields and successfully evaluating 22 oil and gas structures, achieving a reserve replacement ratio of 180% [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A: 422,230, 2023A: 416,609, 2024E: 449,172, 2025E: 475,714, 2026E: 503,922 [7]. - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A: 141,700, 2023A: 123,843, 2024E: 135,154, 2025E: 143,385, 2026E: 151,920 [7]. - Earnings per share (yuan): 2022A: 2.98, 2023A: 2.60, 2024E: 2.84, 2025E: 3.01, 2026E: 3.19 [7]. - The target price has been adjusted to 28.40 yuan, up from the previous target of 20.65 yuan [2].

桶油成本持续下降，积极推动增储上产 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证 研 告 总市值（亿元） 12990 报 总股本（百万股） 47567 52 周价格范围（元） 16.47-30.58 日均成交额（百万元） 821.82 司 究 储量产量再创新高，降本增效助力长期发展 中国海油发布 2023 年年度报告：公司实现营业收入 4166.09 亿元，同比-1%；实现归母净利润 1238.43 亿元，同比-13%。 2023 年 Q4 实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比-1.2%，环比4.3%，实现归母净利润 261.98 亿元，同比-20.4%，环比22.7%。公司全年资产减值及跌价准备为 35.23 亿元，同比增 加 28.46 亿元，主要受到北美地区油气资产计提减值准备的 影响；除所得税外其他税金为 243.31 亿元，同比增加 55.53 亿元，主要受确认矿业权出让收益的影响。剔除补缴矿产特 别收益和一次性北美地区减值等影响，公司业绩符合预期。 ▌ 油气产销量新高，油价下跌背景维持优秀业绩 2023 年全球油价下滑，公司平均实现油价 77.96 美元/桶， 同比-19.3%，平均实现气价 7.98 美元/千立方英尺，同比7%。2023 年公司净产量达 678 百万桶 ...