Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 2.28% on January 23, with Sichuan Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] - Sichuan Gold's stock price rose by 10.01% to 50.23, with a trading volume of 513,900 shares and a transaction value of 2.516 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 1.254 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 749 million yuan [1] - Among individual stocks, Zhongjin Gold had a main fund net inflow of 126 million yuan, while Hunan Silver experienced a 9.60% increase in stock price [2] - Shandong Gold saw a significant net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan from main funds, despite a retail net inflow of 19.1 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,749.51 points, up 0.45%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,798.01 points, up 0.62% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Gold stocks led the gains, with Zijin Mining International rising over 8% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining increasing over 7% [1] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks were active, with Junda Co., Ltd. surging over 51% and Asia-Pacific Satellite rising over 14% [1] - Most technology stocks saw increases, with Xiaomi Group up 2.84%, Alibaba up 2.25%, and JD Group up 0.79% [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector is experiencing a strong performance, with notable increases in stocks such as Sichuan Gold rising by 6.66%, and others like Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, and China Gold rising over 4% [1] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has heavily invested in gold-related companies, achieving a one-year increase of 124.08% and a cumulative increase of 132.01% since inception [1] - International gold prices have reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $4950 per ounce, leading to a significant rise in domestic gold jewelry prices, now exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - Factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, instability of the US dollar, and political uncertainties are expected to drive gold prices higher in 2026 [2] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund focuses on investments in gold stocks, allowing for reflection of gold price increases on company profits while mitigating risks associated with holding single gold stocks [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing increasing demand from private investors and central banks [1]

Market Overview - As of January 23, the A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4133.58, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.24% to 14360.98, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.17% to 3322.96 [1][2]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector experienced significant gains, with stocks such as Ruihua Tai, Feiwo Technology, and others hitting the 20% daily limit up [3][4]. - The first batch of tourists for China's commercial spacecraft has been revealed, with tickets priced at 3 million yuan, and over 20 individuals, including notable figures, have already signed up [5][7]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry saw a surge, with multiple stocks reaching the 20% daily limit up, including Dongfang Risheng and Maiwei Shares [9][10]. - The demand for photovoltaic cells is expected to increase significantly due to the planned launch of 200,000 satellites, which will drive both quantity and quality improvements in solar energy technology [10]. Gold Market - Gold stocks continued to rise, with Sichuan Gold increasing by over 8% and other companies like Chifeng Gold and Zhongjin Gold also seeing gains [11][12]. - The price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1500 yuan per gram, with major brands exceeding 1540 yuan per gram [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of gold stocks as a "lever" for gold prices, highlighting that gold stock ETFs have outperformed physical gold since early 2025, with a 137% increase in market price [1] - It questions the reliability of gold stocks as a lever and seeks to identify optimal buying conditions for these stocks [1] Group 1: Definition and Examples of Gold Stocks - Gold stocks include companies involved in gold mining and refining, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, as well as jewelry companies like Chow Tai Fook [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics of Gold Stocks - The China Securities Index for gold stocks showed annual performance from 2021 to 2025 as follows: -5.12%, 2.43%, 9.62%, 7.48%, and 90.30% [1] - Major gold mining companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold have seen significant profit increases, with Zijin Mining's net profit rising by 50% in 2024 and 55% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Group 3: Impact of Gold Prices on Gold Stocks - The relationship between gold prices and gold stock performance is complex; while rising gold prices generally benefit mining companies, the impact on jewelry companies is mixed due to price sensitivity among consumers [7] - The article notes that gold stocks have experienced periods of divergence from gold prices, often correcting after gold price fluctuations [8][10] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Considerations - The article suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong due to global uncertainties, making gold stock ETFs a valuable asset allocation option [10]

Group 1 - Gold concept stocks showed strong performance in the morning, with Chifeng Gold rising over 5%, Zhongjin Gold increasing over 4%, and Shandong Gold up over 3% [1] - Related gold ETFs also experienced gains, rising over 3% [1] Group 2 - Specific gold stock ETFs reported the following price changes: - ETF code 159562 increased by 0.103 to 2.874, a rise of 3.72% - ETF code 159315 rose by 0.074 to 2.153, a gain of 3.56% - ETF code 159321 went up by 0.067 to 2.017, an increase of 3.44% - ETF code 517520 increased by 0.087 to 2.641, a rise of 3.41% - ETF code 517400 rose by 0.064 to 2.076, a gain of 3.18% - ETF code 159322 increased by 0.063 to 2.119, a rise of 3.06% [2] - The rise in gold prices was catalyzed by Trump's warning that Europe would face retaliation if it sold U.S. assets, leading to renewed risk aversion and pushing both spot and futures gold prices above $4,900 [2]