t 31 - 11 - 1 Friday of Special A JUDD 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 马年初八将迎来A股首个交易日，A股市场将如何运行？招商证券首席策略分析师张夏接受记者采访时表示，马年A股慢牛行情有望延续。"2026年上市公司 盈利增速有望进一步回升，预测非金融及两油A股上市公司2026年有望实现5%至10%的温和增长，盈利增速将会对A股市场上行产生关键动力。"他分析指 出，2026年A股整体仍处在盈利增速回升和估值温和扩张的阶段，预计上证指数上涨幅度介于10%至15%之间。 "A股本轮上行周期正从流动性驱动、赛道股占优的'牛市第二阶段'，向以盈利改善为驱动力的'牛市第三阶段'过渡。关键观察变量是PPI的触底回升，这通常 标志着企业盈利实质性改善"。张夏表示，在此过渡期内，市场风格将趋于均衡。 2026年以来，A股日均成交额保持在2万亿元上方。张夏认为，在A股过去两年有较好赚钱效应以及整体中高回报率资产荒的背景下，2026年A股资金供需有 望延续较大规模净流入，或达1.56万亿元，为实现慢牛带来流动性支持。 具体来看，资金供给端，公募基金将延续发行回暖趋势，如果能够有效突破扭亏阻力 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a new round of upward momentum after the Spring Festival, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and positive market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Data - Historical data from 2006 to 2025 shows a significant "Spring Festival effect," with the Shanghai Composite Index having an 80% probability of rising in the first five days and a 75% probability in the following five days after the festival [2]. - Research from multiple brokerages indicates that the market typically sees a surge in risk appetite and a transition from emotional-driven rallies to trend continuation in the weeks following the Spring Festival [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Brokerages recommend focusing on high-quality blue-chip stocks and low-volatility sectors before the festival, while suggesting a shift towards technology growth, small-cap stocks, and policy beneficiaries (such as TMT and consumer sectors) after the festival [6][7]. - The semiconductor and AI-related sectors are highlighted as key areas of interest, with expectations of continued performance due to favorable industry trends [4][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Impact - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to catalyze policy changes that will positively impact market performance post-festival [4]. - The first two months of the year are typically a data vacuum period, but current trends indicate a positive outlook for performance improvements in various industries [4][5]. Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - While there are short-term risks such as overseas market fluctuations and sector rotation, these are viewed as temporary disturbances that are unlikely to alter the overall positive trend for February [5][6]. - The white liquor sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as consumer demand rebounds, supported by favorable policies and improving fundamentals [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The January CPI in the U.S. is 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, primarily driven by declines in energy prices and used car prices. The core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3% meets expectations, with moderate trends in rent and persistent price increases in some services. Despite the cooling inflation, overseas markets still anticipate two rate cuts in June as a high-probability scenario due to stable non-farm employment and statements from Federal Reserve officials [2][4]. Inflation Data Summary - January CPI month-on-month is 0.2% (previous value 0.3%), and year-on-year is 2.4% (previous value 2.7%). Core CPI month-on-month is 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), and year-on-year is 2.5% (previous value 2.6%) [1][2]. - Energy prices in January decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.3%), significantly contributing to the cooling inflation. Energy commodities fell by 3.3% month-on-month (previous value -0.3%), with gasoline down 3.2% (previous value -0.3%) and fuel oil down 5.7% (previous value -0.8%) [2][3]. Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices increased moderately in January, with an overall month-on-month increase of 0.2% (previous value 0.7%). Household food prices rose by 0.2% (previous value 0.6%), while non-household food prices increased by 0.1% (previous value 0.7%). Beef prices fell by 0.4% (previous value 1.1%) due to tariff reductions [3][4]. - The core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3% (previous value 0.2%) shows a slowdown in rent prices, with rent items rising by 0.2% (previous value 0.4%). Some service prices continue to rise, with overall service CPI increasing by 0.4% (previous value 0.3%) [3][4]. Vehicle Prices and Market Reactions - Prices for new and used vehicles are under pressure from demand-side cooling, with the CPI for used cars and trucks down 1.8% month-on-month (previous value -0.9%). The CPI for new transportation tools rose by 0.1% (previous value 0.0%) [4]. - Following the data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.4 basis points to around 3.41%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to approximately 4.06%. The dollar index remained stable around 96.9 [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese securities firms are increasingly expanding their overseas operations, with multiple major and mid-sized firms announcing initiatives for international capital operations at the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - On February 13, major firms including CITIC Securities, CICC, and Zhongtai Securities announced guarantees for their overseas subsidiaries [2]. - GF Securities reported a change in registered capital from 7.606 billion RMB to 7.825 billion RMB due to a completed H-share placement, with funds aimed at enhancing overseas subsidiary capital [2]. - GF Securities plans to list its zero-interest convertible bonds on the Vienna MTF [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - GF Securities is not the first to pursue overseas financing; Huatai Securities recently issued 10 billion HKD in zero-interest convertible bonds for international business support [5]. - Since 2025, over ten securities firms have made significant strides in international business, with firms like Western Securities and Dongwu Securities establishing wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong [6]. - The push into overseas markets represents a shift for Chinese securities firms from local intermediaries to global traders, driven by the need for risk hedging and capital flow [6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of mid-2025, 13 out of 16 comparable A-share listed securities firms reported over 10% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue [7]. - Notable revenue figures include CITIC Securities at 6.912 billion RMB (up 13.57%), CICC at 4.024 billion RMB (up 75.66%), and Haitong Securities at 2.459 billion RMB (up 76.21%) [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that a significant number of quality domestic enterprises will connect with global markets through Hong Kong, creating opportunities for IPOs and cross-border capital services [9]. - The competitive edge in overseas business will increasingly focus on cross-border derivatives and FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity) operations [10]. - Chinese securities firms are expanding beyond Hong Kong to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, establishing a comprehensive international business landscape [10]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The future growth potential for Chinese securities firms lies in cross-border wealth management, offshore RMB-related businesses, and investment banking in emerging markets [11]. - Firms are advised to build a composite team that understands both international rules and Chinese industries, while also enhancing cross-cultural integration [12].

Group 1 - The company Zhongmi Holdings announced that it will accept investor research on February 13, 2026, with Liang Yutao, the director of the board office and securities affairs representative, participating in the reception and answering investor questions [1] Group 2 - The article highlights a significant investment success by Xu Xin, known as the "Queen of Venture Capital," who achieved an 18-fold return on a single investment, contributing to her wealth exceeding 10 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of risk management in all its business activities, adhering to regulatory requirements and internal risk control standards [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The company places risk management at the core of its business operations [1] - All investment activities are conducted in strict compliance with regulatory requirements and internal risk control standards [1] - The company employs diversified asset allocation and dynamic management to effectively mitigate potential market volatility [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company aims to balance returns and risks in its future operations [1] - The commitment to creating sustainable value for investors remains a priority [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges investor concerns regarding short-term stock performance and emphasizes its commitment to enhancing long-term value through core business strengthening and optimizing shareholder returns [1] Financial Reporting - The company announced that the 2025 performance report will be disclosed on January 27, 2026, and the annual report will be officially released on March 28, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that its stock price is influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, policy environment, industry development, market supply and demand, market sentiment, and company performance [1] Group 1: Shareholder Value and Management - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder value through a strict market value management system, which includes cash dividends, information disclosure, investor relations management, and ESG governance [1] - Since its listing in 2009, the company has distributed a total of 37.7 billion yuan in cash dividends and repurchased shares worth 664 million yuan [1] - The mid-2025 dividend is projected to reach 1.035 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.82% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company aims to continuously enhance its business competitiveness and strives for synchronized growth in market value and performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Securities emphasizes a prudent and steady investment philosophy, indicating that its investment direction will be dynamically adjusted based on market conditions and strategic planning [1] Group 1 - The company adheres to strict information disclosure rules and encourages investors to pay attention to official announcements for detailed information [1]