特朗普2.0确实带来不确定性，但外部因素是次要矛盾，其影响节奏，不影响趋势。 从金融市场看，特朗普交易演绎至今，美债利率已达高位且较充分反馈再通胀及乐观基本面预期；本周 港股及中概股整体稳定，近期并无从基本面出发的充分理由促使A股持续调整。 且国内政策依然值得期待，央行四季度例会释放择机降息降准信号，"两重两新"加码，后续若政策实质 性落地，市场有望随之企稳并展开进攻行情，回调是布局机会。 关注行业：电子、通信、有色、非银、银行、建筑、食品等。 证券时报e公司讯，中信建投研报表示，或受微观流动性，汇率调整，政策真空、业绩预告及特朗普带 来的不确定性等预期综合扰动，短期市场弱于预期。 中信建投认为，牛市底层逻辑未被破坏，扭转通缩目标依旧明确。 ...

2024年，我国经济发展的质量，进一步突破升级。一是发展新质生产力，科技创新和产业创新深度融 合、成效显著，培育人工智能、航空航天、新材料、新储能、人形机器人、分子药物、微纳制造、物联 网等重点产业，年内推进建设33家国家和国地共建制造业创新中心，累计突破关键共性技术672项、申 请发明专利7077项、孵化企业182家、实现技术成果转化690项。二是提升经济的效率和可持续性，可持 续、绿色发展，经济的资源利用效率持续提升，制造业国家级绿色工厂占比提升2个百分点至近20%， 全国工业增加值单位用水量同比节约2.7%，单位能耗和污染物排放等指标持续优化。三是改革开放持 续深化，各项政策部署纲举目张，从新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化到共建"一带一路"，经 济各个领域的积极因素不断培育、潜力后劲持续增强、发展实绩逐步显现。 2024年，中国经济交出了一份高质量发展成绩单，2025年，有利中国经济运行的积极因素正在集聚。中 信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛预计，我国经济将乘风破浪，继续前进。 黄文涛指出，2024年，我国经济发展的基础，进一步扎实巩固。一是总的增长，预计全年国内生产总值 增长5%左右，继续在全球主要 ...

美债利率（黄金传统持有成本）对金价仍产生影响，但或延续2023—2024年"跟涨不跟跌，涨多跌少"的 交易新规律。 证券时报e公司讯，中信建投研报指出，2025年黄金交易节奏上，考虑实际利率的"非对称影响"。 美联储货币宽松的节奏以及通胀路径的演绎，仍将牵引黄金的交易节奏。 过去三年，美元和美国基本面持续强劲的核心原因是，通过大财政和资金回流提振美国资产，但也相应 加剧了美国和非美市场的割裂，形成了美元与非美资产之间反差。 特朗普的诸多政策主张有可能固化或进一步强化大财政、科技创新和全球资金再平衡，演绎 MAGA2.0。 MAGA2.0的脆弱性在于，美国债务负担偏高以及，全球贸易体系脆弱性。 中长期视角下，金价中枢仍将受益于以央行购金为代表的避险买盘的支撑。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，中信建投研报称，以提振消费为重点扩大国内有效需求，食品饮料行业有望迎来景 气拐点，业绩及估值均有望得以继续提升。 白酒板块有望随着国内经济提振及居民消费激活，商务场景及大众消费景气度回升，重回消费升级通 道，龙头酒企盈利能力有望加速修复。 当前白酒板块估值整体仍处于低位，长期投资价值凸显。 此外，随着政策刺激力度加码，顺周期餐饮链有望率先受益于预期改善。 持续看好：1）休闲零食、饮料行业保持高景气度，微信小店新渠道为行业内公司带来重要增量机会； 2）结合持续复苏的餐饮渠道，建议关注具有拓新品、管理层换届或改革预期的调味品、啤酒及餐饮链 标的，同时当前糖蜜市场价格环比进一步下降，对于酵母企业提升利润弹性有较大帮助。 3）原奶周期拐点渐近，礼赠场景有望修复，乳制品继续结构升级，叠加高股息，性价比凸显。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the extreme high interest rate environment and risks in the U.S. commercial real estate sector have previously depressed market risk appetite and valuation for small and medium-sized banks, but these factors have now reversed or improved, yet some quality small and medium-sized banks still lag in valuation compared to expected ROE improvements [1] - The current upward operating cycle in the U.S. banking industry focuses on banks whose valuations lag behind fundamental improvements, with the ongoing preventive interest rate cuts being most beneficial for both bank performance and valuation [2] - Selection criteria for banks include those with advantages in deposits during the interest rate cut cycle, minimal drag from investment income, potential for increased non-interest income, low commercial real estate risks, and light burdens from other asset risks, targeting small and regional banks with the greatest expected discrepancies [3]

Group 1 - The overall market is expected to remain volatile, with positive policy direction but a need for time to reverse the macroeconomic situation. The anticipated implementation of sanctions related to Trump's administration in January may directly impact China's export performance [1] - The proportion of high-growth industries is still relatively low, with notable highlights in specific sectors such as technology. The market style is expected to gradually shift back to large-cap stocks, while small-cap stocks may face adjustment risks in January due to the upcoming annual report disclosures and the implementation of new ST rules [2] - Based on the macro environment, policy direction, and industry tracking, a barbell strategy is maintained, recommending defensive sectors like banking, home appliances, and electricity, alongside offensive sectors such as domestic computing power and AI chips [3]

Group 1 - CES 2025 will serve as a global benchmark for technology innovation and consumer electronics, showcasing cutting-edge technologies and outstanding products from leading tech players worldwide [1] - The event is expected to highlight the latest innovations in consumer electronics, with a focus on significant breakthroughs in AI applications and chip technology, acting as a key catalyst for the consumer electronics industry in early 2025 [2] - The CES 2025 will take place from January 7 to 10, 2025, in Las Vegas, USA, as reported by CITIC Securities [3] Group 2 - The enthusiasm for AI technology is anticipated to further escalate at this year's CES, with an expectation of more AI application examples being showcased [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that a potential reduction in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in the first quarter of next year may enhance stock valuation attractiveness, leading to an upward trend in the A-share market [1] - The A-share market has shown a consistent upward movement in its bottom over the past few months, with seasonal patterns suggesting a temporary decline in trading activity towards the end of the year, followed by increased activity at the beginning of the new year [3] - Post-Chinese New Year, liquidity is expected to improve further, which may support market performance [3] Group 2 - Key themes to focus on include AI+, low-altitude economy, and initial public offerings [2] - Industries of interest include non-bank financials, electronics, military industry, media, machinery, real estate chain, construction, and leisure services [4] - The report suggests continued attention to potential policy-driven beneficiaries, with AI+ identified as a mid-term industry focus [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the medical device industry has significant advantages in going global, with China's innovation and cost-effectiveness expected to establish global leaders [1] - The industry is anticipated to continue its recovery from a low base, with the impact of medical compliance requirements and centralized procurement gradually clearing, leading to high growth for companies launching new products or expanding internationally [2] - The report from CITIC Securities expresses optimism about investment opportunities in the medical device sector by 2025 [3] Group 2 - Recent approvals of multiple innovative devices are expected to create new opportunities for commercial insurance to facilitate the growth of innovative products, while the rapid development of AI in healthcare and advancements in brain-computer interface technology are likely to continue catalyzing the industry [4] - Regulatory encouragement for mergers and acquisitions has led to increased activity in the medical device sector [5]

Group 1 - Xiaomi is building its own GPU cluster and is making significant investments in AI large models [1] - The Xiaomi large model team initially had 6,500 GPU resources, indicating a strong focus on AI large models [2] - The demand for data centers is expected to increase due to rising AI computing power needs, particularly for high-power super-large data centers [3] Group 2 - The recent power outage at Microsoft's data center affected OpenAI's AI services, highlighting the importance of reliable power supply for AI operations [2] - There is a growing need for advanced infrastructure in the IDC industry, including power equipment and liquid cooling systems, to meet the demands of high-performance computing [3]