Core Viewpoint - The planting industry sector experienced a rise of 2.94% on January 29, with Hainan Rubber leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hainan Rubber (601118) closed at 7.84, up 9.96%, with a trading volume of 2.3481 million shares and a transaction value of 1.772 billion [1]. - Shennong Seed Industry (300189) closed at 7.67, up 8.33%, with a trading volume of 3.3919 million shares and a transaction value of 2.561 billion [1]. - Qiule Seed Industry (920087) closed at 19.08, up 7.31%, with a trading volume of 189,600 shares and a transaction value of 354 million [1]. - Other notable stocks include Nongfa Seed Industry (600313) at 8.03, up 6.36%, and Kangnong Seed Industry (920403) at 27.14, up 3.39% [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The planting industry sector saw a net outflow of 229 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 97.6117 million [2]. - Major stocks like Hainan Rubber had a net inflow of 1.62 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 214.089 million from speculative funds [3]. - Shennong Seed Industry experienced a net inflow of 14.4615 million from institutional investors, while facing a net outflow of 1.80467 million from speculative funds [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the global major production areas of natural rubber will enter a cessation of tapping in Q1, while the domestic tire industry is entering a critical operational season post-Spring Festival, suggesting that short-term price trends will be dominated by industrial attributes and heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream operational performance after the Spring Festival and the catalytic effect of the petrochemical chain's prosperity [1] - Long-term, natural rubber prices have confirmed a long-term turning point since the new tapping season began in May 2023, with the downstream sector poised for a new cycle driven by the impending AI technology revolution [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by 2026, short-term synthetic rubber price increases will elevate valuations, while long-term capacity bottlenecks will become apparent, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall [1] - The company recommends Hainan Rubber (601118.SH) as a core investment opportunity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global natural rubber market is entering a critical phase with the onset of the production halt in major regions, while the domestic tire industry is gearing up for a key operational season post-Spring Festival, leading to a short-term price influence driven by industrial attributes and macroeconomic factors [1][2] - In the short term, the natural rubber market is expected to be influenced by industrial attributes due to the seasonal production halt in Q1, with a significant focus on downstream operational performance and the petrochemical chain's economic conditions after the Spring Festival [2] - Long-term trends indicate that natural rubber prices have confirmed a long-term turning point since the new production season began in May 2023, with the market poised for a new cycle driven by the impending AI technology revolution [2][3] Group 2 - The 2026 market outlook suggests that short-term price increases in synthetic rubber will elevate valuations, while long-term supply bottlenecks are expected to emerge, making prices more likely to rise than fall [3] - The petrochemical chain's price increases are anticipated to catalyze valuation improvements, with tight supply conditions expected to support synthetic rubber prices, thereby boosting natural rubber demand [3] - The long-term supply constraints are becoming evident, with expectations that global natural rubber supply will enter a reduction cycle over the next decade due to production limitations [3]

2026年行情展望：短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌 逻辑一：石化链涨价提供估值催化。短期丁二烯产能停车降负，供应偏紧，中期石化链景气有地缘冲突 和反内卷政策支撑，年内合成橡胶价格有望筑底回升，进而提振天然橡胶需求。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，天然橡胶Q1全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是 国内轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响大，核心关注春节后的 下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。长期看，天然橡胶价格自2023年5月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期 拐点，同时下游正处AI技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。2026年短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产 能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌。该行核心推荐海南橡胶(601118.SH)。 国信证券主要观点如下： 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导 天然橡胶产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽车工业高度绑定。 另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天然橡胶估值。综合来看，三重属性决定了天然 橡胶框架和行情的复杂性，长短期驱动因素、跟踪指标均有差异。 (1)一年维度来看 ...

Group 1 - The planting industry sector increased by 1.23% on January 26, with Nongfa Seed Industry leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the planting industry and their performance included Nongfa Seed Industry (up 3.98% to 7.05), Yasheng Group (up 3.55% to 3.79), and Honglian Huanxu (up 3.40% to 9.72) [1] Group 2 - The planting industry sector saw a net inflow of 499.19 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2272.04 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant fund flows included Yasheng Group with a net inflow of 429.85 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 106.49 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - North China Agricultural University also experienced a net inflow of 425.21 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 179.78 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Hainan Rubber's trading volume reached 1.467 billion yuan, marking a new high since February 26, 2021 [2] - The latest stock price of Hainan Rubber increased by 1.33%, with a turnover rate of 5.00% [2] - The previous trading day's total transaction volume for the stock was 787 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd. was established on March 29, 2005, with a registered capital of 4.279 billion yuan [2]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 天然橡胶专题二 优于大市 （1）一年维度来看，Q1 全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是国内 轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响 大，核心关注春节后的下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。 （2）长期维度来看，天然橡胶价格每轮周期 20 年左右，主要受胶树 10 年 龄左右进入旺产期决定。从具体走势来看，天然橡胶是强顺周期品种，产能 限制作为慢变量更多决定中枢和牛市持续时间，而行情的爆发力需要与大时 代背景下的宏观叙事结合，大周期往往发生于全球或主要经济体的景气上行 阶段。当前全球供应受前期缩种和当下树龄老化影响，天花板已经开始显现， 天然橡胶价格自 2023 年 5 月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期拐点，同时下 游正处 AI 技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。 石化链涨价带动，产能瓶颈明确，2026 年价格预计易涨难跌 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导。天然橡胶 产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽 车工业高度绑定。另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天 然橡胶估值。综合来看 ...

Group 1 - Hainan Rubber (601118) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 2.73% and a transaction amount of 787 million yuan, showing a price fluctuation of 6.60% [2] - Institutional investors net bought 17.55 million yuan, while the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net purchase of 44.81 million yuan, with a total net selling by brokerage seats amounting to 17.99 million yuan [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 9.74%, with significant net purchases from institutional and foreign investors [2][3] Group 2 - The latest margin financing and securities lending data shows a total balance of 934 million yuan, with a financing balance of 932 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 1.32 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance decreased by 27.72 million yuan, representing a decline of 2.89%, while the securities lending balance dropped by 24.41 thousand yuan, a decrease of 15.62% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 33.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23%, but recorded a net loss of 2.75 million yuan [3]

证券之星消息，1月23日种植业板块较上一交易日上涨1.37%，海南橡胶领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。种植业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603336 | 宏辉美疏 | 9.40 | -2.08% | 16.48万 | 1.56亿 | | 002772 | 众兴菌业 | 15.65 | -2.00% | 14.98万 | 2.34亿 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | 15.52 | -1.52% | 29.08万 | 4.53亿 | | 920403 | 康农种业 | 25.33 | -1.36% | - 3.51万 | 8862.77万 | | 002041 | 登海神』 | 9.89 | -0.50% | 11.86万 | 1.17亿 | | 600354 | 敦煌种业 | 6.82 | -0.44% | 23.03万 | 1.57亿 | | 920087 | 秋乐种业 | ...

证券之星消息，1月22日种植业板块较上一交易日上涨1.67%，宏辉果蔬领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4122.58，上涨0.14%。深证成指报收于14327.05，上涨0.5%。种植业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603336 | 宏辉果蔬 | 9.60 | 5.61% | 28.88万 | | 2.75亿 | | 002772 | 众兴菌业 | 15.97 | 5.27% | 16.70万 | | 2.62亿 | | 920403 | 康农种业 | 25.68 | 3.42% | 4.24万 | | 1.08亿 | | 300189 | 神农种业 | 6.78 | 3.20% | 117.08万 | | 7.85亿 | | 300087 | 茎银高科 | 9.59 | 2.13% | 21.64万 | | 2.06亿 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | 15.76 | 1.87% | 28.03万 | | 4.39亿 | | 601118 ...