Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed lower, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, nickel, tin, copper, aluminum, international copper, stainless steel, crude oil, fuel oil, aluminum alloy, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Zinc fell over 6%, while fuel oil and pure benzene dropped more than 5%, and ethylene glycol and liquefied gas declined over 4% [1] - A few commodities like caustic soda and logs saw slight increases [1] Group 2 - The three major indices in the A-share market fell over 2%, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index dropping more than 3% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.58 trillion, a decrease of 250.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 4,600 stocks in the market declined, with 123 stocks hitting the limit down [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rise followed by a sharp decline due to market sentiment and external factors, but the nomination of Waller is not seen as a turning point for the market [2][12] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, supported by strong fundamentals and low inventory levels, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy for copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium prices have been declining, but demand is expected to increase due to new policies and seasonal factors, indicating potential for future price support [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold: After a rapid increase, gold prices faced a sharp drop, but the overall upward trend remains intact for long-term investors [2][12] - Copper: The extreme market sentiment has subsided, and the fundamentals for copper remain strong, suggesting a hold on copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium: Inventory levels are decreasing, and new demand drivers are emerging, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4][14] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.70%, outperforming the market by 4.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [16] - Top performers in the non-ferrous metals sector included gold, copper, and lead-zinc, with individual stocks like Hunan Gold showing significant gains [16][22] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - New energy metals: Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices decreased significantly [23][24] - Base metals: Domestic prices for copper, aluminum, and zinc rose, while lead prices slightly declined [33][35] - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gold down 4.7% and silver down 22.5% [47][48]

Market Overview - The lithium mining sector experienced a collective adjustment on January 30, with the sector dropping over 6%, and companies like Jinyuan Co., Weiling Co., Western Mining, and Tibet Mining seeing declines exceeding 9% [1] - On the same day, lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the main contract LC2605 falling by 10.99% to close at 148,200 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market has maintained a tight balance between supply and demand due to factors such as production halts, continued subsidies for electric vehicles, and strong energy storage orders [3] - As of January 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 638 tons from the previous week, while demand remained robust, particularly in energy storage batteries [3] - The market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a weekly reduction of 1,414 tons in lithium carbonate inventory [3] Regulatory Environment - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has implemented strict market supervision measures in response to recent price volatility, emphasizing the importance of risk management and compliance among trading firms [5] - The exchange has taken action against clients who exceeded trading limits in lithium carbonate futures, signaling a strong stance against market manipulation [5] - Analysts believe that the recent regulatory measures aim to cool speculative trading without significantly impacting legitimate hedging needs of real enterprises [6] Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment has noticeably cooled, with lithium carbonate prices showing weakness and expected to fluctuate at high levels until new driving factors emerge [3] - The recent price decline is viewed as a correction of previously excessive optimism, with regulatory bodies preferring to respect market self-regulation mechanisms [7][8]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2026年2月2日，西部矿业（sh601168）触及跌停，跌停价35.6元，涨幅-8.03%，总市值780.19亿元，流 通市值780.19亿元，截止发稿，总成交额12.41亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 根据喜娜AI异动分析，西部矿业跌停原因可能如下，关联交易大+业务亏损+高管变动： 1、公司自身经 营风险：西部矿业关联交易规模较大，2026年预计日常关联交易达53.92亿元，同比增长14.36%，这可 能影响公司财务独立性和业绩真实性。部分业务板块存在盈利压力，铅冶炼业务持续亏损，原料紧缺叠 加回收率不达标，短期难见改善，拖累公司整体盈利水平。 2、行业及市场环境影响：有色金属行业受 宏观经济、供需关 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities 500 Growth ETF (562340) opened down 1.00% at 1.388 yuan [1] - Major stocks in the ETF include Giant Network up 1.55%, Western Mining down 10.00%, Tianshan Aluminum down 7.27%, and Xiamen Tungsten down 4.99% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the return of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index multiplied by 100% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Zhang Yichi as the fund manager [1] - Since its establishment on April 25, 2024, the fund has returned 40.67%, with a return of 9.44% over the past month [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 30, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling from a peak of $5,450 per ounce to below $5,000, marking a maximum decline of 8% [1] - Concurrently, international silver prices also plummeted, with spot silver dropping below $100, experiencing a decline of over 17% [3] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The A-share gold concept sector faced a "limit down" wave, with multiple companies such as Yunnan Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Zhongjin Gold hitting the trading limit [5] - Specific stock performances included Shandong Gold and Sichuan Gold both declining by 10% [7] Group 3: Jewelry and Retail Market Reaction - Several gold jewelry brands significantly reduced their prices, with quotes for 24K gold jewelry dropping to around 1,620 to 1,685 yuan per gram, down from over 1,700 yuan [12] - In Beijing, gold buyback prices were adjusted downwards by nearly 70 yuan per gram within a single day, causing hesitation among sellers [12][13] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Analyst Views - Analyst Dan Bin expressed a bearish outlook on gold and silver, suggesting that extreme price increases often lead to sharp declines [15] - Historical patterns indicate that gold prices have previously experienced significant volatility, with analysts noting that market conditions such as U.S. economic performance and geopolitical risks will influence future price movements [16] Group 5: Global Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is projected to reach 5,002 tons by 2025, driven by investment demand and geopolitical uncertainties [18] - In 2025, global gold ETF demand is expected to increase significantly, with North American funds contributing the majority of the growth [19] - China's gold investment demand is also anticipated to remain strong, with a notable increase in gold bar and coin purchases [20]

（文章来源：中国证券报·中证金牛座） 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 ...

行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/16-2026/01/29） 金属价格高位震荡，有色板块分化加剧 2026 年 1 月 30 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。黄金方面，近期在地缘局势扰动以及资金涌入等推动下，黄金价格 再度上行。短期需重点关注避险情绪退却、投机资金退出等风险。截至1月29 日，COMEX黄金价格收于5410.80美元/盎司，较1月初上涨1068.9美元，COMEX 白银价格收于115.79元/盎司，较1月初上涨44.81美元，上海黄金交易所黄金 Au（T+D）价格收于1243.40元/克，较1月初上涨269.01元。建议关注紫金矿 业（601899）。 工业金属。在全球降息周期开启的大背景下，有色金属价格屡创新高。随着 主流工业金属铜、锡等供需格局加快转好，以及工业金属补涨贵金属的机会 仍存，工业金属价格有望进一步上行。截至1月29日，LME铜价收于1370 ...