Core Viewpoint - The leading brokerage firms are demonstrating strong competitive advantages in the current bull market, with significant profit growth expected in 2025, particularly for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [1][2]. Group 1: CICC's Performance Forecast - CICC anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% [1][2]. - The net profit, excluding non-recurring items, is expected to be between 8.428 billion and 10.351 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 49% to 83% compared to 2024 [1][2]. - CICC's performance is expected to surpass 10 billion yuan for the first time since 2021 [3]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - CICC's subsidiary, CICC Wealth Securities, is projected to achieve revenue of 8.349 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. - The company is focusing on supporting national strategic development and enhancing financial services, which has led to robust growth in investment banking, stock trading, and wealth management sectors [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, CICC's revenues were 5.721 billion yuan, 7.107 billion yuan, and 7.933 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.69%, 41.1%, and 74.78% respectively [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Mergers - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated mergers and acquisitions, with CICC currently pursuing a merger with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, which will elevate it to a "trillion-level" brokerage [8][9]. - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's market position and operational capabilities, allowing for better service to national strategies [8]. - As of September 2025, the asset sizes of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities were 764.941 billion yuan, 116.391 billion yuan, and 128.215 billion yuan respectively, with the merger expected to push CICC's total assets over one trillion yuan [9]. Group 4: Market Activity and IPOs - The A-share and Hong Kong IPO markets have regained vitality, with CICC participating in 53 out of 117 IPOs in the Hong Kong market, achieving a market coverage rate of 45% [1][9]. - CICC served as the sponsor for 42 projects, capturing a market share of 36% in the Hong Kong IPO market [9]. - In the A-share market, CICC ranked fourth in underwriting, with a total underwriting income of 580 million yuan and a market share of 7.35% in 2025 [9].

| 单里申购金额(元,合中的费,M) | 印刷费率 | | --- | --- | | M<100万 | 0.80% | | 100万点M≥3007 | 0.60% | | 300 7)≤M<5007] | 0.40% | | Mason 7 | 1,000元/超 | | 特有期限(N) | 时间费率: | | --- | --- | | N=7天 | 1.50% | | 7天都N=30天: | 1.00% | | 10天=N=180天 | 0.50% | | Na180天 | | | 基金名称 | 图影视通知动开放播进展合型发起式逐今找快播企 | | --- | --- | | 法國國家 | 国家市通新道外双语与能合发展 | | 第全集代码 | 006562 | | 新公式作为式 | 知的股开放到 | | 最念全国共数日 | 2026年1月20日 | | 基金管理人名称 | 上海国集等通证券资产管理有限公司。 | | 蛋会托管人名称 | 中国建设银行股份有限公司 | | 新会注册登记账款名称 | 上海国家高酒店等位产管理有限公司 | | 公告作服 | 《公开紧集证券投资基金运作管理办法》,《公开联集团券投资 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着SpaceX 推进卫星发射及相关在轨应用布局，轨道AI数 据中心的探索趋势逐步显现。作为太空场景的重要能源供给方式，光伏有望在轨道数据中心建设过程中 获得更多应用机会，相关光伏设备厂商将持续受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下： SpaceX申请部署百万颗卫星，拟建轨道AI数据中心网络。 数据中心光储配套与太空光伏有望成为新一轮设备扩产的重要催化因素。 (1)算力需求提升推动数据中心对稳定、低成本、可复制的光伏+储能方案需求加速增长，地面光伏装机 逻辑从电力驱动逐渐转向算力驱动。(2)低轨卫星与太空算力发展带动太空光伏进入产业化验证阶段， 对高效率、轻薄柔性等提出更高要求，打开高端制造及定制化设备增量空间。 风险提示：商业航天产业发展不及预期、光伏电池新技术发展不及预期等。 1月31日，美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)的一份新文件显示，SpaceX正在申请发射并运营一个由至多100万 颗卫星组成的星座，这些卫星具备前所未有的计算能力(轨道数据中心)，以支持先进的人工智能。 SpaceX此举主要为了提供支持全球数十亿用户的大规模AI推理及数据中心应用所需的计算能力，这些 卫星将在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending an "Overweight" for the insurance sector [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a vibrant performance in the securities industry, with a daily average trading volume of 30.6 billion yuan in A-shares and a financing balance stabilizing at 2.7 trillion yuan, reaching a new high [12][13]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to expand the types of strategic investors, allowing specific institutional investors to participate as strategic investors, which is expected to enhance long-term capital inflow into the market [12][14]. - The insurance sector shows a recovery trend, with leading companies like China Life Insurance seeing significant stock price increases, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [27]. - The banking sector is experiencing a preemptive credit issuance at the start of the year, with banks like Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank reporting strong earnings growth, which is expected to support net interest margins throughout the year [31][32]. Summary by Sections Securities - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading brokerage firms, with notable earnings forecasts for 2025, including a 40% increase in net profit for CITIC Securities and a 69%-73% increase for Guotai Junan [15][16]. - Recommended stocks include top brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional brokerages like Guoyuan Securities [3][13]. Insurance - The insurance sector is recommended for investment, particularly in leading companies. The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains high, with opportunities for beta trading in the insurance sector [27]. - Investors with higher risk tolerance are encouraged to consider high-elasticity combinations represented by companies like Xinhua Insurance, while conservative investors may focus on stable companies like Ping An Insurance and China Life Insurance [27]. Banking - The banking sector is highlighted for its strong performance, with Qingdao Bank reporting an 8.0% increase in revenue and a 21.7% increase in net profit, indicating improved asset quality [32]. - The report suggests that the preemptive credit issuance by regional banks and the benefits from high-interest deposits maturing will support net interest margins [33]. - Recommended banking stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as larger banks like Shanghai Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][31].

Group 1: Global AI Industry Overview - The global AI industry in 2025 shows a differentiated pattern of "China's recovery and overseas cautious restructuring," with multi-dimensional collaboration in capital, policy, technology, and industry driving AI from "technological illusion" to a new stage of "commercial evidence" [1] - In China, AI financing reached 3,180 events in 2025, with a significant increase in H2 compared to H1, focusing on AI software applications and embodied intelligence with clear ROI [1][14] - Overseas financing declined quarterly, with a shift back to foundational large models and computing infrastructure, and a slowdown in IPO activity [1] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - In China, the application service layer accounted for 69% of AI financing events, with hardware and software sectors showing significant growth in H2 [16][22] - Early-stage financing represented over 56% of total financing events in China, indicating a trend towards lighter, vertical-focused startups [25][29] - In contrast, overseas AI financing events totaled 1,637 in 2025, reflecting a shift from "frenzied pursuit" to a more selective and cautious investment approach [37][38] Group 3: Policy Evolution - Countries are moving towards a dual-track approach of "sovereign construction + scenario-driven" policies, with China promoting full-scene value realization through "AI +" initiatives [1] - The U.S. is deepening its strategy of "internal innovation and external binding," focusing on exporting comprehensive technology standards [1] - European countries, the UK, Japan, and South Korea are emphasizing computing sovereignty, while Southeast Asia and the Middle East are accelerating the establishment of autonomous ecosystems and data hubs [1] Group 4: Industry Chain Innovation - The AI industry chain is characterized by "system-level energy efficiency competition," with large models focusing on deep reasoning and native multi-modal capabilities [2] - The AI chip competition has shifted to a three-dimensional game of "efficiency - ecology - customization," with edge computing enhancing "end-edge-cloud" collaboration [2] - Significant breakthroughs in engineering delivery have been achieved in robotics, autonomous driving, and healthcare applications, marking a transition to industrial-level evolution for humanoid robots [2] Group 5: Strategic Differentiation Among Major Players - Overseas giants like NVIDIA are focusing on reconstructing intelligent agent paradigms and computing infrastructure, while Google and Microsoft are enhancing their differentiated advantages [2] - Chinese companies such as Huawei, Baidu, and ByteDance are deepening their focus on vertical scenarios and open-source ecosystems, building core competitiveness through breakthroughs in computing power and ecosystem empowerment [2][10]

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面供需双弱，情绪面占主导 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，产地部分煤矿产量继续提升，叠加前期因安监影响停减产的煤矿恢复正常，供应端继续增量，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量 周环比增加14.67万吨至1234.29万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.02%至85.87%。。进口方面，本周甘其毛都口岸通关车数维持高位运行，中国煤炭资源 网统计本周（1.26-1.29）甘其毛都口岸通关4天，日均通关1457车，较上周同期环比增加281车。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 焦炭首轮提涨于上周落地，涨后预计平稳运行，焦化厂心态普遍偏保守，且对炼焦煤的补库已接近尾声，进一步追高采购的意愿不强。本周全国日均 铁水产量为227.98万吨，较上周下降0.12万吨，铁水产量降至低位，对原料的刚性需求减弱。 。 ◆ 3、库存： ➢ 本周各环节焦煤总库存环比增35.3万吨，本周仍处冬储补库周期，坑口库存下 ...

Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, shows continued improvement in fundamentals, highlighting the investment value of the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 4117.95 points, down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14205.89, down 1.62% [10] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [10] - The CITIC II Securities Index fell by 0.71%, while the CITIC II Insurance Index rose by 5.41% [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [15] - As of January 30, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.81%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, indicating a cautious risk preference in the equity market [12] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a stable long-term interest rate environment and an upward trend in the equity market, which is expected to drive performance growth in Q1 2026 [15] Securities Sector - The securities market is showing positive core indicators, with a projected high growth in Q1 2026, supported by improved trading volume and margin financing [16] - As of January 30, 2026, 17 brokerages reported a total net profit of 1153.44 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.27% [19] - The average daily trading volume of all A and B shares reached 2.90 trillion CNY, a 144.26% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a significant rise in market activity [21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is expected to expand business opportunities, with the first three products anticipated to raise over 13 billion CNY [27] - The REITs initiative aims to activate existing commercial real estate assets and enhance the supply of capital market products, indicating strong market demand [27] - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies like China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [15]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者： 侯欢、梁中华 投资要点 本月制造业PMI淡季回落，需求待提振，扩产较谨慎。受大宗商品涨价影响，价格指数明显回升。此外，服务业景气平稳，建筑业活 跃度还需政策呵护。 2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.8%，比上月下降4.0个百分点；服务业商务活 动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。 制造业PMI：淡季回落。为了缓解春节假期因素的扰动，国泰海通证券把本月PMI与近年春节前一个月对比。结果发现，本月PMI不及 近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。一方面，企业规模分化加剧，大型企业PMI仍位于扩张区间, 中、小型企业PMI在收缩区间低位 运行。另一方面，经济结构转型加快。高技术制造业PMI连续两个月位于较高水平，装备制造业保持在扩张区间。相比之下，消费品 行业和高耗能行业处于收缩区间，景气水平有所回落。 需求有待提振，扩产较为谨慎。2026年1月份，生产指数为50.6%，虽然高于临界点，但是比上月下降1.1个百分点，除了淡季因素的影 响，还与需求的回落有关。同期，新订单、新出口订单指数分别为49.2%、4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Walsh's "pragmatic monetary policy" signals the Federal Reserve's commitment to controlling inflation while addressing Trump's interest rate cut demands, aiming to correct market distortions caused by excessive QE and achieve convergence in a "K"-shaped economy [1] Group 2 - Walsh's notable policy proposition is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE, advocating for QT to control inflation and create space for rate cuts once risks are mitigated [1][3] - The balance between the White House and Wall Street is highlighted, as Trump's criticism of Powell led to Walsh being favored for his ability to maintain Fed independence while aligning with Trump's rate cut desires [1][2] Group 3 - The concept of QT is described as "responsible balance sheet management," aimed at correcting the "infinite support" approach of monetary policy on the demand side, while rate cuts are intended to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective [2] - Evidence supporting QT's effectiveness in controlling inflation is noted, with CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% following the Fed's announcement of passive balance sheet reduction in 2022 [3] - Challenges in transitioning to a "tight reserve mechanism" are acknowledged, as liquidity issues may constrain QT implementation until bank reserves return to adequate levels [3]

国泰海通证券研究 报告导读：变化的沃什的政策倾向，不变的美联储独立性困境。美债建议防御优先、久期中性、控制波 动。 1．聚焦美联储换届：货币政策与美债市场前瞻 1.1美联储换届前后的历史规律回顾：货币政策和债市行情变化 曲线形态方面，换届往往触发期限利差的结构性调整。历史数据显示，若新任主席被市场解读为"鸽 派"，短端受降息预期压制更多，曲线陡峭化；若被视为"鹰派"，长端因通胀担忧走高更快，曲线先陡 峭后平坦。2018年鲍威尔上任后延续加息，2s10s利差从50个基点收窄至20个基点以内，最终在2019年 倒挂，倒逼美联储转向降息。这种"换届-政策预期-曲线调整-政策纠偏"的反馈循环在历史上屡见不鲜。 风险溢价层面，换届期间国债波动率指数（MOVE Index）平均上升15-25%，反映市场对政策路径分歧 加大。若新任主席来自美联储内部或延续前任政策框架，溢价上升相对温和；若为外部人选且政治色彩 浓厚，市场对独立性的担忧将显著推升期限溢价和流动性溢价。2018年鲍威尔虽为外部人选但政策延续 性强，MOVE指数仅短暂飙升后回落；而1979年沃尔克上任后激进转向，债市波动率持续高位运行长达 两年。 2026年的换 ...