Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 4102.2 points, with the SSE 50 Index increasing over 1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.21% [1][12] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 620 billion yuan from the previous day [1][12] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market closed higher, with significant gains in the coal sector [1][12] Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a collective surge, with over 10 stocks including Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy hitting the daily limit [3][14] - Notable stocks included Yanzhou Coal Energy up over 10%, China Coal Energy up over 8%, and Shanxi Coking Coal also seeing significant gains [2][14] - Reports indicated that Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas, leading to a halt in spot coal exports [14][16] Solar Industry Developments - The solar industry saw a significant rally, with stocks like JinkoSolar, Zhonglai Co., and Zairun New Energy all hitting the daily limit of 20% [6][16] - JinkoSolar's stock price reached 8.40 yuan, reflecting a 20% increase, while Zhonglai Co. also saw similar gains [7][17] - There were rumors of Elon Musk's team visiting several Chinese solar companies to explore potential collaborations, particularly in advanced technologies [17][18] Tencent's Stock Movement - Tencent Holdings experienced a sharp decline, closing down approximately 4% with a market capitalization of 509.06 billion HKD [10][18] - The drop was attributed to regulatory actions against third-party marketing practices on its WeChat platform, which affected user experience [20]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a significant increase of 7.75% on February 4, with Hengyuan Coal Power leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed substantial price increases, with Hengyuan Coal Power rising by 10.08% to a closing price of 7.21, and other notable increases from Kailuan Shares and Shanxi Coking Coal, both up by 10.01% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 2.132 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.171 billion yuan [1] - Major stocks like Dazhou Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal had significant main fund inflows, with Dazhou Energy receiving 2.07 billion yuan, representing 24.49% of its trading volume [2] - Retail investors showed a negative trend, with significant outflows from stocks such as Zhongmei Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]

| 恒源煤电 | 7.21 | +0.66 | +10.08% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600971 融 | | | | | 开滦股份 | 6.56 | +0.60 | +10.07% | | 600997 融 | | | | | 大有能源 | 7.36 | +0.67 | +10.01% | | 600403 融 | | | | | 山西焦煤 | 7.36 | +0.67 | +10.01% | | 000983 融 | | | | | 究矿能源 | 15.27 | +1.39 | +10.01% | | 600188 融 | | | | | 中煤能源 | 14.08 | +1.28 | +10.00% | | 601898 融 | | | | | 潞安环能 | 13.97 | +1.27 | +10.00% | | 601699 融 | | | | | 山煤国际 | 11.67 | +1.06 | +9.99% | | 600546 融 | | | | | 晋控煤业 | 15.86 | +1.44 | +9.99% | | 601001 融 | | | | | 陕西煤业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by expectations of price stabilization and potential supply reductions from Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The coal index rose by 6.82%, the central enterprise coal index by 6.23%, and the coal mining index by 5.93% as of the midday close on February 4 [2]. - Individual stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Meijin Energy (000723.SZ), and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reached their daily limit up [2]. Group 2: Indonesian Coal Production Cuts - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a potential reduction in coal production quotas to approximately 600 million tons by 2026, a significant decrease from the projected 790 million tons for 2025, with some miners facing cuts of 40%-70% [3][4]. - The Indonesian Mining Association warned that these cuts could lead to mine closures, exacerbating challenges in the coal industry [4]. Group 3: Global Coal Market Impact - Indonesia's coal production is projected to reach 836 million tons in 2024, with exports accounting for 55.5 million tons, representing 33%-35% of global coal trade [4]. - The anticipated production cuts are expected to reduce global coal supply, potentially driving international coal prices higher [4]. Group 4: Domestic Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding post-Chinese New Year, supported by terminal restocking demand and supply contraction [5]. - Dazhong Securities predicts a tight supply-demand balance in the thermal coal market, with upward price potential in the medium to long term [5]. - GF Securities forecasts a significant improvement in coal industry profitability by 2026, with a projected 42% decline in industry profits for 2025, but stable production and sales in Q4 [5].

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding gaining significantly, indicating positive market sentiment [1][3] - The China Securities Index reported that the China Securities Red Chip ETF (515080) has seen a net inflow of approximately 1.93 billion yuan over the last two trading days, suggesting increased risk-averse sentiment among investors [1][3] - Analysts recommend focusing on coal-electricity integrated enterprises with stable cash flows and high dividend yields, as well as companies benefiting from a rebound in demand [3][6] Group 2 - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Red Chip Index is 4.98%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.82%, highlighting the attractiveness of high-dividend assets [6] - The coal supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve due to government policies aimed at reducing production and the seasonal increase in heating demand [3][6] - The valuation levels of dividend assets in the A-share market are currently low, making them an attractive investment option compared to rental yields and government bond returns [4][6]