分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信资源行业领涨 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：航天传媒行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2026-02-10 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-09 《市场分析：电池电子行业领涨 A 股先抑后 扬》 2026-02-06 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周二（02 月 24 日）A 股市场跳空高开、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 4105 点附近获得支撑，随后股指企稳回 升，盘中煤炭、石油、贵金属以及通信设备等行业表现较好；影视 院线、旅游零售、软件开发以及游戏等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现小幅震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡上行，创业 板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January 2026 but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, leading to a higher average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.426 and 1.541 times [5][11][14]. - The overall market conditions for January 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in trading volumes and a record high in margin financing balances, indicating a robust trading environment despite the sector's overall weakness [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2026 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a 1.49% decline, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541 times, reflecting a slight increase in valuation [14]. - A total trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan was recorded, marking a 40.1% increase month-on-month [9]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting January 2026 Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of mild recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [7][18]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a total monthly trading volume of 60.90 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in brokerage activity [26]. - Margin financing balances reached 27,153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. 3. February 2026 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - Proprietary trading is expected to decline due to a cooling equity market, while brokerage activity may experience a seasonal drop in performance [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to face continued weakness, with a potential drop in overall monthly performance expected to return to relative lows seen in the previous 12 months [7][45]. - The report suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it may present a good opportunity for re-entry, particularly for leading firms with strong wealth management capabilities [7].

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 中原证券股份有限公司是一家从事证券经纪业务的中国公司。该公司运营八个分部。证券经纪业务分部 从事代理客户买卖股票、基金、债券等业务。自营业务分部从事权益投资、固定收益投资。投资银行业 务分部包括股权类承销与保荐业务、债券类产品承销业务等。信用业务分部向客户提供融资融券、约定 购回及股票质押等融资类业务服务。投资管理业务分部包括资产管理业务、私募基金管理业务以及另类 投资业务。期货业务分部涵盖期货经纪业务、期货交易咨询业务及风险管理业务。该公司还运营境外业 务分部和总部及其他业务分部。 证券之星消息，2月23日南向资金增持254.0万股中州证券（01375.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向资金 减持的有3天，累计净减持275.6万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有11天，累计净增持371.1万 股。截至目前，南向资金持有中州证券（01375.HK）7.06亿股，占公司已发行普通股的59.02%。 ...

Performance Overview - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025 to be between 400 million to 480 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.70% to 95.24%. The non-recurring net profit is anticipated to grow by 100.08% to 138.19% year-on-year, driven by an overall upturn in the capital market and increased revenue from wealth management and securities investment businesses [2]. Subsidiary Development - The company's subsidiary, Zhongzhou Blue Ocean Investment Management Co., Ltd., has repeatedly reduced its registered capital since 2025, with a cumulative decrease of over 27%. This adjustment aims to optimize the parent company's capital utilization efficiency, but it may have a certain impact on the subsidiary's business expansion [3]. Stock Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the A-shares of the company experienced a price increase of 2.31% from February 4 to February 11, while the Hong Kong shares rose by 1.85% during the same period. On February 11, there was a net outflow of 1.8465 million yuan from the main funds in A-shares, while retail investors showed a net inflow [4]. Industry Policy and Environment - Dongwu Securities released an industry commentary on February 10, 2026, indicating that the optimization of refinancing measures by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may indirectly benefit the brokerage sector, including the company. However, attention should be paid to regulatory compliance requirements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The alternative investment landscape among securities firms in China is experiencing a significant divergence, with some firms retracting while others are expanding their investments [2][5]. Group 1: Firms Retracting - Firms like Caida Securities and Dongxing Securities are reducing their capital in alternative investment subsidiaries due to poor financial performance, with Caida's subsidiary reporting a revenue of -1.19 million yuan and a net loss of 2.47 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [2][3]. - Northeast Securities' alternative subsidiary reported a total revenue of -1.84 million yuan and a net loss exceeding 16 million yuan in 2024, leading to a capital reduction to 1 billion yuan [3]. - The overall trend shows that many smaller securities firms are facing capital pressure and liquidity risks due to the requirements of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's co-investment system, which mandates a 2%-5% co-investment ratio and a 24-month lock-up period [3][6]. Group 2: Firms Expanding - In contrast, firms like Caitong Securities and Guohai Securities are increasing their capital in alternative investment subsidiaries, with Caitong planning to raise up to 2 billion yuan to enhance its capital strength [5][6]. - Guohai Securities announced a 500 million yuan capital increase, citing rapid growth in investment business and the need to bolster capital for competitive advantage [5]. - Other firms, such as Zhongtai Securities and Nanjing Securities, are also focusing on alternative investments, targeting specialized and innovative enterprises, indicating a shift from passive co-investing to proactive investment strategies [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The divergence in strategies reflects a broader shift in the industry from a focus on scale to a more refined approach to capital management, emphasizing project selection, post-investment support, and exit management [6]. - Experts suggest that the current environment necessitates a transition from "broad arbitrage" to "meticulous cultivation," focusing on precise project screening, risk control, and efficient capital turnover [6]. - The changes in capital allocation strategies among securities firms highlight the industry's adaptation to regulatory changes and market conditions, with a growing emphasis on professional capabilities and risk management [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the overall valuation of lithium batteries and the ChiNext board is projected to be 28.69 times and 46.07 times, respectively, as of February 12, 2026, maintaining a strong market rating for the industry based on development prospects [1] - In January 2026, the lithium battery sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, attributed to prior sector corrections and overall price increases in the supply chain [1] - The overall industry prosperity is expected to continue rising, with short-term focus on upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, domestic and international policies, and advancements in solid-state batteries [1] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for the domestic and international electric vehicle industry is confirmed, making the sector a key area of interest [1] - It is anticipated that individual stock performance and trends will show divergence, suggesting a continued focus on leading companies within specific sub-sectors [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中原证券发布研报称，维持行业"强于大市"投资评级。2026年1月锂电池板块走势 强于沪深300指数，主要系板块前期回调、产业链价格总体上涨等相关。短期重点关注上游原材料价格 走势、月度销量、国内外相关政策及固态电池相关进展。考虑行业相关政策表述、原材料价格走势、板 块业绩情况、目前市场估值水平及行业未来增长预期，短期建议关注板块投资机会，同时密切关注指数 走势及市场风格。中长期而言，国内外新能源汽车行业发展前景确定，板块值得重点关注，同时预计个 股业绩和走势也将出现分化，建议持续重点围绕细分领域龙头布局。 中原证券主要观点如下： 1月锂电池板块指数走势强于沪深300指数 2026年1月，锂电池指数上涨3.31%，新能源汽车指数上涨0.44%，而同期沪深300指数上涨1.65%，锂电 池指数走势强于沪深300指数。 截至2026年2月12日，电池级碳酸锂价格为14.30万元/吨，较2026年1月初价格上涨19.17%;氢氧化锂价格 为14.25万元/吨，较1月初上涨26.67%，预计二者价格短期震荡为主。电解钴价格42.80万元/吨，较1月 初回落7.16%，短期预计震荡为主;钴酸锂价格40 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Zhongzhou Securities (01375.HK) by 1.443 million shares on February 12, 2026, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - In the last five trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on three occasions, with a total net reduction of 7.177 million shares [1]. - Over the past 20 trading days, there have been 12 days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling 4.298 million shares [1]. - As of now, southbound funds hold 702 million shares of Zhongzhou Securities, accounting for 58.71% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Zhongzhou Securities Co., Ltd. is a Chinese company engaged in securities brokerage, operating through eight divisions [2]. - The brokerage division handles client transactions in stocks, funds, and bonds, while the proprietary trading division focuses on equity and fixed income investments [2]. - The investment banking division includes equity underwriting and sponsorship, as well as bond product underwriting [2]. - The credit division provides margin financing, repurchase agreements, and stock pledge services [2]. - The investment management division encompasses asset management, private fund management, and alternative investments [2]. - The futures division covers futures brokerage, trading consulting, and risk management services [2]. - The company also operates an overseas business division and other divisions related to its headquarters [2].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple brokerage firms are reducing their alternative investment subsidiaries, indicating a strategic restructuring within the industry as firms differentiate their approaches to alternative investments [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Dongxing Securities announced a capital reduction for its subsidiary Dongxing Investment, decreasing its registered capital from 20 billion to 7 billion yuan, following a previous reduction of 10 billion yuan [2]. - Zhongshan Securities' parent company Jinlong Co. agreed to reduce the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Jinhong Shaohui Investment Co., by 150 million yuan, bringing its registered capital down to 50 million yuan [1]. - Northeast Securities decided to reduce the capital of its subsidiary Dongzheng Rongda Investment Co. by 2 billion yuan due to poor performance, with reported total revenue of -1.836 million yuan and a net loss exceeding 16 million yuan in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The alternative investment landscape among brokerages is becoming increasingly polarized, with some firms like Zhongyuan Securities, Dongbei Securities, and Guodu Securities reducing capital, while others like Caitong Securities and Guohai Securities are increasing their investments [1][4]. - Guohai Securities announced a 500 million yuan capital increase for its alternative investment subsidiary, raising its registered capital to 1.5 billion yuan, citing rapid growth in investment business as a reason [4]. - Caitong Securities plans to increase its wholly-owned alternative investment subsidiary's capital by up to 2 billion yuan, raising its registered capital from 1.5 billion to a maximum of 3.5 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Industry experts suggest that the frequent capital reductions are driven by performance volatility and underwhelming results from alternative investment subsidiaries [3]. - The new company law mandates that registered capital must be fully paid within five years, prompting brokerages to adjust their capital structures to mitigate compliance risks [3]. - According to Tian Lihui, the director of the Financial Development Research Institute at Nankai University, the capital management of brokerages is maturing, shifting from a focus on scale to a more refined approach to capital returns [3][5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the semiconductor industry, with a significant increase in capital expenditure from major cloud companies, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [21][22][23] - The report emphasizes the recovery in the chemical industry, with prices of key chemical products showing signs of improvement, suggesting potential investment opportunities [29][30] - The report notes the growth in the power generation sector, with a substantial increase in installed capacity and a shift towards renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind [26][27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,131.98, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.09% [4] - The report indicates that the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are above their three-year median levels, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][13] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry saw a robust performance in January 2026, with a 18.63% increase in the domestic semiconductor sector, outperforming the broader market [21] - The food and beverage sector experienced a mixed performance, with certain sub-sectors like prepared foods and snacks showing growth, while others faced declines [18][19] - The power and utilities sector outperformed the market, with a 2.76% increase in the sector index, driven by strong demand and supply dynamics [26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI and high-end manufacturing, while also considering consumer sectors for potential growth [10][12] - In the chemical sector, it is recommended to focus on industries benefiting from rising raw material prices, such as chlor-alkali and agricultural chemicals [29][30] - The report advises monitoring the developments in the power sector, particularly in renewable energy, as it is expected to continue its growth trajectory [26][28]