Company Integration Progress - The company plans to complete the legal merger of Guolian Minsheng Securities and Minsheng Securities by June 2026 to further advance business integration [1] Capital Movements - In February 2026, the company increased its capital by 200 million yuan to its subsidiary Minsheng Securities for the development of wealth management and information technology, with further funds to be allocated based on integration progress [2] Recent Legal Events - A securities false statement liability dispute involving the subsidiary Guolian Minsheng has entered the second instance, accepted by the Shandong Provincial High Court, with the future judgment potentially impacting the company's business [3]

颠覆传统互联网的免费路径 传统互联网软件的典型路径是先用免费换用户规模，凭借"用户数和时长"换议价权，然后在广告、会员 订阅、增值服务、交易抽佣里变现，免费背后的底层原因无非是边际成本极低。即多一个用户或多一次 点击，成本却可以被带宽与存储规模效应稀释，从而达到近似为零的边际成本。 云计算时代也出现过类似的"先免费/低价再扩张"，但云的计费单位很快变成 CPU/存储/带宽/请求数， 客户也习惯了"按量计费"。云能收费，是因为它交付的是明确的资源和SLA(服务提供商与客户签订的 服务等级协议)。但当行业依旧处在"模型价格战"时，智谱却出现了涨价的信号，这意味着大模型时代 的"计量单位"从流量(DAU/时长)转向Token(推理消耗)，而Token的消耗在越来越多场景里是刚需。 大模型时代的变化：Token变成"可计量的生产资料"，不再是"免费流量" 大模型把"对话/写代码/生成内容"这类看似是由软件供应商提供的服务，变成了强依赖算力的在线推理 服务。对模型厂商而言，每一次回答都要实打实地消耗GPU、显存、带宽与电力；对用户来说，每一 次"让模型多想一会儿、写一段更长的代码、跑一个更复杂的任务"都对应更多Toke ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]

骏马驰春，万象更新。值此农历丙午马年到来之际，我谨代表国联民生证券，通过《中国基金报》向广大投资者、合作伙伴以及所有关心中国资本市场的 朋友们，致以最诚挚的新春问候与最美好的节日祝福！愿大家在新的一年里鸿运当头、投资顺遂、阖家安康！ 旧岁已展千重锦，新年再进百尺竿。展望丙午马年，站在"十五五"的全新起点，我们对中国经济与资本市场的未来充满信心。中国经济将在"高质量、可 持续"的基调下，呈现内需潜力释放、科技产业融合、绿色转型加速的鲜明特征。宏观政策协同发力，"双宽"基调的财政货币政策环境有望推动物价合理 回升与企业盈利改善，为市场提供扎实的基本面支撑。资本市场将继续释放改革红利。围绕"防风险、强监管、促高质量发展"的主线，政策制度红利将持 续释放，多层次资本市场改革将继续深化，并购重组加速推进，进一步优化资本配置效率；中长期资金规模和占比将进一步扩大和上升，市场波动率系统 性下降，为"慢牛"奠定基石。 新的一年，国联民生证券将始终秉持"合规、稳健、诚信、创新"的价值观，认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，聚焦服务实体经济、服务居民财富管理 的主责主业，着力服务产业客户、金融机构客户和零售客户三类客群，以培育新质 ...

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for the capital market in 2026, suggesting a stable and promising journey ahead for investors and market participants [1][2]. Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of professional analysis and timely research reports in identifying potential investment opportunities in the stock market [1][2]. - It mentions the role of authoritative analysts in providing comprehensive insights that can aid investors in making informed decisions [1][2]. Group 2 - The piece is part of a special feature that aims to convey messages of hope and stability as the new year approaches, symbolized by the metaphor of a horse galloping into spring [1][2]. - The article is published by Guolian Minsheng Research, indicating a collaboration with Sina, which aims to disseminate valuable information to the public [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that by 2026, the resonance between assets and liabilities is expected to support the continued recovery of insurance valuations [1] Group 1: Insurance Fund Scale and Growth - The balance of insurance funds is projected to reach 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, representing a 15.7% increase from Q4 2024 and a 2.7% increase from Q3 2025 [1] - By the end of Q4 2025, the fund utilization balance for life insurance companies and property insurance companies is expected to be 34.7 trillion yuan and 2.4 trillion yuan, respectively, with increases of 15.7% and 8.8% from Q4 2024, and 2.8% and 1.2% from Q3 2025 [1] - Life insurance companies account for 90.1% of the total insurance fund utilization balance, reflecting a strong demand for life insurance products driven by residents' "savings transfer" needs and adjustments in product interest rates [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation of Life Insurance Companies - As of Q4 2025, life insurance companies have allocated 20.37 trillion yuan to fixed income assets and 7.98 trillion yuan to equity assets, marking increases of 3.4% and 1.2% from Q3 2025 [2] - The proportion of fixed income assets and equity assets in the total fund utilization balance of life insurance companies is 58.8% and 23.0%, respectively, with a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3 2025 [2] - The increase in the allocation to fixed income assets is attributed to heightened volatility in the equity market, prompting life insurance companies to stabilize investment returns [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation of Property Insurance Companies - By the end of Q4 2025, property insurance companies have allocated 1.37 trillion yuan to fixed income assets and 0.55 trillion yuan to equity assets, with increases of 1.9% and 0.3% from Q3 2025 [3] - The allocation proportions for fixed income and equity assets in the total fund utilization balance of property insurance companies are 56.7% and 22.9%, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [3] - The increase in the allocation to cash and stocks is driven by the high demand for liquid assets during the year-end claims peak and regulatory adjustments to attract insurance capital into the market [3]

Company Developments - The company is making progress in business integration, capital operations, and litigation matters [1] - The company plans to establish a wealth management subsidiary and complete the legal merger by June 2026 to enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities [2] Funding Movements - The company intends to increase capital by 200 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Minsheng Securities, for the development of wealth management and information technology, which has been approved by the board on February 6 [3] Company Status - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to publicly issue perpetual subordinated bonds with a total face value of no more than 3 billion yuan, valid for 24 months from the date of registration and can be issued in tranches [4] Subsidiary Development - The wholly-owned subsidiary, Guolian Minsheng, has appealed a ruling related to a securities false statement liability dispute, with the Shandong High People's Court accepting the case on February 2, 2026; the first-instance judgment requires it to bear joint liability for 275 million yuan of debt within a 5% range, and the company has indicated that it has made provisions for expected liabilities, which will not significantly impact current profits [5] Business Progress - The company continues to promote business synergy between the former Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities, accelerating the upgrade of the risk control system, and focusing on investment banking and wealth management sectors to seize industry policy opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng highlights the significant impact of AI and tariffs on market dynamics during the last Spring Festival, with DeepSeek emerging as a key player that challenged the notion of American exceptionalism, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks while US tech stocks faced pressure [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Market Trends - The AI industry remains a crucial theme for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations for continued tech market momentum and potential recovery in Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - Major AI models and products are set to launch during the Spring Festival, including ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0, which are expected to drive the tech sector [5][6]. - The performance of Nvidia during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry expectations and risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns regarding potential tightening of liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, particularly related to macroeconomic data releases in the US, such as CPI and GDP [10][12]. - The new Fed chair candidate's statements are anticipated to influence market sentiment, although the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate stability [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Iran, could pose significant risks, with potential military actions being a concern that may affect market stability [17][18].

Group 1 - The announcement states that Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. will add Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. as a primary trading dealer for certain exchange-traded open-end funds starting from February 13, 2026 [1] - Investors can conduct subscription and redemption transactions for the relevant funds through Guolian Minsheng Securities [1] - The announcement includes the contact information for both Guolian Minsheng Securities and Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. has issued a risk warning regarding the Nasdaq 100 Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), indicating that its secondary market trading price is significantly higher than the reference net asset value, leading to a substantial premium [3] - The fund management company warns that if the premium persists, it may take measures such as applying for a temporary trading halt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange to alert the market about the risks [3] - The fund is currently operating normally with no undisclosed significant information, and the management will adhere to legal regulations and fund contracts in its investment operations [4]