Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]

Group 1: Outdoor Apparel Industry - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry has maintained rapid growth since 2021, with a CAGR of 25.3% for outdoor apparel and 18.4% for outdoor footwear, projected to grow by 24.5% and 16.3% year-on-year in 2025 respectively [24][26] - Online sales of outdoor footwear are growing faster than apparel, with outdoor footwear online sales growth maintaining over 40%, while certain apparel categories like jackets and sun-protective clothing are experiencing slower growth [24][26] - Key outdoor brands such as Kailas and Berghaus are showing strong momentum, while brands like The North Face are underperforming; the market is becoming more diversified with new brands emerging [25][26] Group 2: AI Application in Computing Industry - Major international companies are focusing on AI application in vertical scenarios, with OpenAI and Anthropic launching healthcare-focused AI models, enhancing compliance and professional services [28] - Domestic companies are also advancing in AI applications, with Alibaba upgrading health services and Tencent providing comprehensive support for mini-programs, indicating a strong push towards AI integration [28] - The market for AI applications is expected to see significant growth, with predictions indicating that the GEO market will reach $24 billion globally by 2026, driven by high consumer trust in AI applications in China [30][32] Group 3: Public Utilities Industry - The public utilities sector, including electricity, gas, and water, is characterized by its "essential" nature, with stable long-term growth prospects [32] - The transition to low-carbon energy sources is accelerating, with the share of clean energy consumption expected to reach 28.6% of total energy consumption by 2024, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [32][33] - There is a growing trend of overseas funds over-allocating to the public utilities sector, with significant increases in holdings by institutional investors in this industry [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on three criteria: high capacity-to-market value ratio, ability to expand overseas, and the current bottoming of alumina prices, suggesting a focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina amid potential supply disruptions [1][3][4] Supply Side - Global supply elasticity is decreasing and vulnerability is increasing due to factors such as peak domestic capacity in China, energy constraints in Europe and the US, and power supply issues in Indonesia, leading to a projected global supply CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [3][5] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a forecasted production of 4,430 million tons in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.4% [9] - The US and Europe face challenges in restoring electrolytic aluminum capacity due to high energy costs and tight power supplies, which will slow down recovery and limit new capacity [10][11] - Indonesia is expected to contribute significantly to future global electrolytic aluminum growth, but power supply constraints will hinder rapid capacity release [13][16] Demand Side - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by traditional demand recovery and emerging sectors like energy storage and data centers [18][22] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a projected decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to aluminum demand [22][23] - New industries, particularly energy storage and data centers, are becoming significant drivers of aluminum demand, with projected CAGRs of 26% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [26][30] Cost Factors - Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to supply-side constraints and policy changes in Guinea, despite current oversupply conditions [36][38] - The energy transition is anticipated to lower the costs of green electricity for electrolytic aluminum production, although short-term carbon taxes may raise energy costs [40][56] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, which will help suppress the costs of thermal power generation for electrolytic aluminum [41] Growth Opportunities - The Chinese aluminum industry is accelerating its overseas expansion due to domestic resource shortages and capacity constraints, with significant investments in regions like Guinea and Southeast Asia [42][45] - Guinea is highlighted as a key player in the alumina market, with plans to enhance local processing capabilities and attract investment [46] - Indonesia is emerging as a major hub for the aluminum industry, supported by government policies aimed at developing its domestic aluminum value chain [47] - Angola's rich hydropower resources and supportive policies are attracting investments in electrolytic aluminum production [48][49] - The Middle East is positioned as a cost-competitive region for aluminum production due to its abundant natural gas resources [50][51] Price Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a revaluation as supply constraints and rising demand support higher aluminum prices, with potential for significant profit expansion [52][55] - The article suggests that the sector is transitioning from a purely cyclical nature to one that also includes dividend stability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [58]

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning aluminum foil industry is experiencing fluctuations in production due to varying market demands, with a projected increase in production in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025 due to rising inventory levels [1][7]. Industry Overview - Air conditioning aluminum foil is a critical material in the air conditioning manufacturing sector, known for its lightweight, corrosion resistance, and thermal conductivity [1][3]. - The industry is divided into non-coated and coated aluminum foil, with the latter gaining traction in recent years due to its enhanced functionality [3]. Production Trends - China's air conditioning aluminum foil production saw a significant drop to 860,000 tons in 2022, a 14% decrease year-on-year, due to the impact of the pandemic [1][7]. - In 2023, production began to recover, and by 2024, it is expected to reach 1,060,000 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous year [1][7]. - However, a forecast for 2025 indicates a decline to 1,020,000 tons, a reduction of approximately 40,000 tons or 3.8% [1][7]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the air conditioning aluminum foil industry includes raw materials such as bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and recycled aluminum [5]. - The production of electrolytic aluminum is crucial, with China's output projected to grow from 35.13 million tons in 2019 to 44.00 million tons by 2024 [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The air conditioning aluminum foil market is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape, with large companies dominating due to scale and technology, while smaller firms seek market opportunities through flexible strategies [9]. - Key players include Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Co., Ltd., Guangdong Dongyangguang Technology Holdings Co., Ltd., and Jiangsu Chang Aluminum Group Co., Ltd., among others [9][10]. Development Trends - Technological innovation is driving the industry forward, with companies investing in R&D to enhance product quality and performance [11]. - Environmental policies are pushing the industry towards more sustainable practices, creating opportunities for the development of recyclable and biodegradable aluminum foil materials [12]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation and restructuring, optimizing the industry structure and improving production efficiency [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of each link in the non - ferrous metal industry chain are jointly repaired, and the core indicators of the issuing entities in the non - ferrous metal industry have improved [1][4]. - It is recommended to focus on allocating AA+/AAA - rated central enterprises and regional leading state - owned enterprises, and select entities with relatively superior core financial indicators, and appropriately extend the duration for higher coupon yields [3][56]. - The credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, and coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises [51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链各环节基本面协同修复 - **Overall Industry Operation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the industrial added value of the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry above the national scale was 7.6%, and that of the smelting and rolling processing industry was 7.1%. The output of ten common non - ferrous metals reached 7,447.4 million tons, and the overall operating income scale exceeded 9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.3% [5]. - **Upstream Resource Mining**: Central and local state - owned enterprises dominate. China has advantages in rare metals like rare earths but has a high external dependence on strategic minerals. In 2025, the price of non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, driving the improvement of the operating conditions of upstream mining enterprises [1][8][9]. - **Mid - stream Smelting and Processing**: In January - November 2025, the output of refined copper and electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.0% and 2.4% respectively. The output of deep - processed products was much higher than that of smelting products. There was a structural differentiation in the prosperity, with new - energy metal smelting being a highlight [2][16][22]. - **Downstream Application**: Basic metals are mainly used in traditional industries, while lithium, cobalt, and nickel are used in emerging fields. In 2024, the demand for lithium increased by nearly 30%, and the demand for nickel and cobalt increased by 6% - 8%, with the new - energy industry being the core driving force [23]. 3.2有色金属行业发行主体核心指标改善 - **Profitability**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, 36 issuing entities achieved a total operating income of 41,067 billion yuan and a net profit of 2,058 billion yuan, with year - on - year increases of 8.5% and 30.6% respectively. The average ROE was 6.91%, and the average net sales profit margin was 6.04%, both showing significant improvements [4][25]. - **Operating Ability**: The average inventory turnover was 6.27 times, and the average current asset turnover was 2.45 times, with year - on - year increases of 0.28 and 0.17 times respectively, indicating improved payment collection and capital return efficiency [4][27]. - **Solvency**: As of Q3 2025, the average asset - liability ratio was 58.0%, the current ratio was 1.18 times, and the quick ratio was 0.61 times. The EBITDA interest coverage ratio increased significantly, indicating enhanced debt repayment ability [4][33]. 3.3有色金属产业债结构分布及机会挖掘 - **Bond Structure**: As of January 7, 2026, there were 290 non - ferrous metal industrial bonds with a total balance of 290.1 billion yuan. Most of the bonds were issued by state - owned enterprises and had high ratings, and the remaining maturity was mostly less than 3 years [43]. - **Credit Spread**: Since 2025, the credit spread of non - ferrous metal industrial bonds has been narrowing, mainly due to the low - interest - rate environment, sufficient capital, and the improvement of industry fundamentals [51]. - **Coupon Income**: The average static coupon of AA+ and above bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years is less than 2%. Coupon income may need to be explored in the medium - and long - term of high - quality central and state - owned enterprises, such as the 3 - 5Y AA+ bonds with a static coupon of 2.13% as of January 7, 2026 [52]. - **Recommended Bonds**: The report recommends some 3 - 5Y non - ferrous metal industrial bonds issued by central and state - owned enterprises for investors' reference [58][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC has upgraded the rating of China Aluminum A-shares to "outperform the market" with a target price of 17.10 yuan [1]

沪指1月16日下跌0.26%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有7个，涨幅居前的行业为电子、汽车，涨幅分 别为2.64%、1.69%。跌幅居前的行业为传媒、计算机，跌幅分别为4.84%、2.23%。有色金属行业今日 下跌1.04%。 有色金属行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | -2.04 | 1.92 | -172349.56 | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | -3.49 | 4.00 | -143606.12 | | 600711 | 盛屯矿业 | -3.45 | 5.70 | -62304.72 | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | -4.22 | 4.71 | -53396.82 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | -3.89 | 6.61 | -45841.56 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | -2.25 | 1.77 | -37116.58 | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | 0.83 | 1.89 | -34 ...

Market Overview - On January 16, the industrial metals sector declined by 0.69%, with Tibet Summit leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18% [1] Top Gainers in Industrial Metals - He Sheng Co., Ltd. (002824) closed at 20.26, up 6.69% with a trading volume of 168,900 shares and a transaction value of 336 million yuan [1] - Yian Technology (300328) closed at 18.27, up 6.16% with a trading volume of 683,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.23 billion yuan [1] - Haixing Co., Ltd. (603115) closed at 22.04, up 5.40% with a trading volume of 102,000 shares and a transaction value of 223 million yuan [1] Top Losers in Industrial Metals - Tibet Summit (600338) closed at 18.07, down 5.98% with a trading volume of 1,148,400 shares and a transaction value of 2.14 billion yuan [2] - Xinweiling (920634) closed at 27.39, down 5.06% with a trading volume of 55,400 shares and a transaction value of 159 million yuan [2] - Luoping Zinc & Electricity (002114) closed at 9.73, down 4.14% with a trading volume of 938,100 shares and a transaction value of 974 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metals sector experienced a net outflow of 4.936 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 3.93 billion yuan [2] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yian Technology (300328) had a net inflow of 11.4 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 80.03 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Chuanjiang New Materials (002171) saw a net inflow of 87.82 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 107 million yuan [3] - Huayu Mining (601020) experienced a net inflow of 40.5 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 83.86 million yuan from retail investors [3]