2月9日，中银证券涨0.43%，截至发稿，报14.10元/股，成交7.07亿元，换手率1.81%，总市值391.70亿 元。中银证券股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅5.46%。 资料显示，中银国际证券股份有限公司位于上海市浦东新区银城中路200号中银大厦,北京市西城区西单 北大街110号7层，成立日期2002年2月28日，上市日期2020年2月26日，公司主营业务涉及投资银行业 务、证券经纪业务、资产管理业务、证券自营业务、私募股权投资业务、期货业务和其他业务。主营业 务收入构成为：证券经纪业务64.12%，资产管理业务16.46%，投资银行业务6.48%，期货业务5.60%， 证券自营业务4.30%，其他1.74%，私募股权投资业务1.30%。 国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）成立日期2016年7月26日，最新规模570.29亿。今年以来亏损 2.3%，同类排名5342/5580；近一年收益7.36%，同类排名4014/4290；成立以来收益18.46%。 国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）基金经理为艾小军。 截至发稿，艾小军累计任职时间12年31天，现任基金资产总规模1889.36亿元 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market performance, style indices, valuation, and other financial metrics without detailing any quantitative models or factors[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing establishment of venture capital funds in niche sectors, particularly focusing on "hard technology" by bank-affiliated Asset Investment Companies (AIC) [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Several bank-affiliated AICs are launching funds targeting artificial intelligence and aerospace industries, with notable examples including a 1 billion yuan fund by Lushin Venture Capital and a similar fund by Bank of China Capital [2]. - The investment focus is on sectors such as artificial intelligence hardware and software, commercial aerospace, and core application technologies [2][3]. Group 2: Drivers of Investment - The acceleration in fund establishment is driven by three main factors: expanding policy support for AIC equity investment, the growth potential of artificial intelligence as a strategic emerging industry, and the need for banks to explore new growth avenues due to narrowing profit margins in traditional lending [3]. - The shift from traditional credit support to a combination of equity and debt financing reflects a strategic move by banks to enhance their role in key technological breakthroughs and modernize industrial chains [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus and Strategy - Bank-affiliated AICs are prioritizing investments in areas aligned with national strategic directions, particularly in artificial intelligence and aerospace, to facilitate industrial upgrades and attract social capital [3][4]. - There is a tendency to focus on foundational infrastructure and closely integrated application scenarios, which present clearer business models and manageable technical risks, aligning with banks' risk control requirements [4]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Trends - The establishment of these funds is expected to significantly increase the supply of capital in the primary market, guiding resources toward high-quality innovation projects and key industries [5]. - The entry of bank-affiliated AICs is likely to deepen the integration of production and finance, stabilizing valuation fluctuations and supporting companies with solid technology and clear applications [5]. - Future trends may include deeper exploration of vertical industries, attention to intersections between artificial intelligence and data elements, and enhanced international collaboration to introduce advanced technologies [5].

近5日资金流向一览见下表： 证券之星消息，截至2026年2月5日收盘，中银证券(601696)报收于13.75元，上涨0.15%，换手率 1.44%，成交量39.92万手，成交额5.49亿元。 中银证券2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入24.38亿元，同比上升26.95%；归母净利润8.54亿 元，同比上升29.28%；扣非净利润8.18亿元，同比上升35.05%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度主营 收入9.33亿元，同比上升38.33%；单季度归母净利润2.89亿元，同比上升22.37%；单季度扣非净利润 2.89亿元，同比上升57.23%；负债率79.44%，投资收益2.76亿元。中银证券（601696）主营业务：公司 根据业务类型将公司业务划分成投资银行业务、证券经纪业务、资产管理业务、证券自营业务、私募股 权投资业务、期货业务和其他业务。其中,公司通过全资子公司中银国际期货从事期货业务,通过全资子 公司中银国际投资从事私募投资基金业务,通过全资子公司中银资本投控从事另类投资业务(中银资本投 控尚未开展业务,中银国际投资的自有资金投资存量项目后续将逐步划转至中银资本投控)。 2月5日的资金流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to be characterized by "two-way fluctuations with a slowing appreciation rate," maintaining a narrow range of volatility [2]. Group 1: Predicted Trends - The consensus among institutions is that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.95 and 7.05, while the offshore rate will range from 6.93 to 7.08 [2]. - Factors such as seasonal dollar rebounds and reduced domestic settlement demand around the Spring Festival will limit the pace of RMB appreciation [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dollar's performance and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are key external variables affecting the RMB exchange rate [3]. - Predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts vary, with Goldman Sachs suggesting potential cuts in Q1 and a small cut in Q3, while Mysteel anticipates three cuts throughout the year [3]. - The internal economic fundamentals show a mix of support and drag, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 providing hard support for the RMB [4]. - The seasonal nature of the Spring Festival will reduce corporate settlement demand, impacting short-term support for the RMB [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions share a consensus on "two-way fluctuations," but there are slight differences in their predictions regarding the appreciation extent and volatility range [7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a slight appreciation, while Minsheng Bank predicts a significant slowdown in appreciation [7]. - Zhongyin Securities warns of the risks of unilateral bets, suggesting potential for slight corrections if the dollar rebounds unexpectedly [7]. Group 4: Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, prioritizing investments in core RMB assets such as new energy and biotechnology [9]. - Companies engaged in import and export should adopt a "risk-neutral" approach, utilizing multi-currency settlements to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [10].

Core Insights - The report introduces a macro factor assetization framework for timing strategies in government bond futures, demonstrating robust return characteristics and strong risk resistance through backtesting [1][2]. Group 1: Macro Real-Time (PIT) Indicator Library Construction - The macro factor assetization strategy utilizes real-time macro data, contrasting with traditional models that lag by 1-2 months, by employing a precise macroeconomic calendar to obtain macro data disclosure dates and times [4][19]. - The PIT macro indicators are designed across four dimensions: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit policy, and central bank open market operations, creating a macro factor library [4][19]. Group 2: Strategy Construction and Backtesting - The strategy framework consists of three main steps: macro factor construction, macro trading logic net value realization, and dynamic factor selection and combination [4][29]. - The model achieved a post-fee Sharpe ratio of approximately 1.3 and a Calmar ratio of about 1.1, indicating strong performance despite challenges in capturing significant excess returns during the bull market from 2021 to 2024 [4][29]. - The model's performance is relatively insensitive to the lag parameter n, with optimal settings found between 10 to 30 minutes, leading to a standardized approach of a 10-minute lag for all signals [4][29]. Group 3: Factor Dynamic Selection and Combination - The macro factors are categorized into four types: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit, and open market operations, with each factor's performance analyzed for effective timing signals [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic factor selection to enhance model performance, utilizing momentum factor selection methods to optimize the factor pool [4][29][56]. - The empirical results indicate that the combined signals from multiple factors significantly improve timing effectiveness compared to single-factor performance [4][29][74].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the issuance of the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bonds" with a total scale of 10 billion yuan, divided into two types: 5 billion yuan for 10-year bonds and 5 billion yuan for 30-year bonds [4][39]. - The bonds will be issued through a single-rate (Dutch-style) bidding process, with the bidding date set for February 4, 2026, and results to be announced on February 5, 2026 [17][40]. - The final coupon rates for the bonds will be determined based on market bidding results, with the 10-year bond's bidding rate range set between 1.33% and 2.33%, and the 30-year bond's range between 1.73% and 2.73% [39][40]. Group 2 - The lead underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities, with a syndicate including several other securities firms [5][6]. - The bonds will be registered and settled through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Securities Depository Trust and Clearing Co., Ltd [8][41]. - Investors are encouraged to consult legal and professional advisors regarding the legality and compliance of their bond purchases [27]. Group 3 - The bonds are government-supported bonds approved by the State Council, with specific tax benefits for both corporate and individual investors [38]. - The issuance is part of a broader plan where the total registered issuance of railway construction bonds is set at 300 billion yuan, valid for 24 months [38]. - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors, with trading available post-listing for both institutional and individual investors [41].

Group 1 - The issuer of the bond is China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., and the total issuance scale is 10 billion yuan for the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bond" [4][29] - The bond is divided into two types: a 10-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan and a 30-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [21][29] - The bonds will be issued at a fixed interest rate, with the 10-year bond's interest rate being the Shibor benchmark rate plus a basic spread ranging from -0.3% to 0.7%, and the 30-year bond's interest rate ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% [21][29] Group 2 - The main underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., which is responsible for managing the underwriting team and coordinating the issuance process [5][31] - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors through a bidding system on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [22][31] - The bonds will be registered and held by the Shenzhen branch of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. [24][30] Group 3 - The bonds will have a maturity date of February 5, 2036, for the 10-year bond and February 5, 2056, for the 30-year bond [27] - The bonds will be issued at par value of 100 yuan, with a minimum subscription unit of 10 million yuan [24][29] - The bonds will be guaranteed by the Railway Construction Fund, providing an irrevocable joint liability guarantee [29]

中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合发起(FOF)A/C成立于2022年07月07日，截至 2026年01月28日， 其今年来收益率为0.74%、0.72%，成立来收益率为-5.83%、-6.48%，累计净值为0.9417元、0.9352元。 | 基金名称 | 中银证券慧泽平衡3个月持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF) | | --- | --- | | 基金简称 | 中银证券慧泽平衡3个月持有混合发起(FOF | | 基金主代码 | 016217 | | 基金管理人名称 | 中银压际正券股份有限公司 | | 公告依据 | 《公开募集证券投资基金信息披露管理办法》 | | 基金经理变更类型 | 增聘基金经理 | | 新任基金经理姓名 | 贾卒,白导曦 | | 共同管理本基金的其他基金经理姓名 | 威海宁、陈乐天 | | i | | | --- | --- | | 基金名称 | 中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF) | | 基金简称 | 中银证券慧泽稳健3个月持有期混合发起(FOF) | | 基金主代码 | 016136 | | 基金管理人名称 | 中银国际证券股份有限公司 | | 公告依 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 2 月 1 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 权益高点震荡，贵金属外盘现领跌行情 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场走势分化，其 他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘vs大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位。 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元贬值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 ◼ 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资 ...