格隆汇2月25日丨方正证券(601901.SH)公布，截至2026年2月25日，本次减持计划实施期限届满，中国 信达未减持公司股份。 ...

格隆汇2月25日丨方正证券(601901.SH)公布，公司于2025年11月5日披露了《关于股东集中竞价减持股 份计划的公告》，中国信达拟于2025年11月26日至2026年2月25日期间，以集中竞价方式减持公司股份 不超过8232.10万股，约占公司总股本的1.00%。截至2026年2月25日，本次减持计划实施期限届满，中 国信达未减持公司股份。 ...

伴随交易活跃度的提升，VLCC二手船资产价值呈现爆发式增长，而期租端的高价锁定进一步反哺资产 估值。根据船经纪公司Xclusiv2026年2月数据，15年船龄的VLCC价值约为8300万美元，较去年同期增 长57%;10年船龄的VLCC当期价格约1.05亿美元，同比涨幅达26%。 VLCC供需缺口加速放大，二手船回笼资金有望投入新造船市场 根据克拉克森，截至2025年底，当前在航VLCC中有近20%船龄超过20年，而VLCC手持订单占船队比 重仅有17.2%，老旧运力淘汰进程持续加速，供需缺口加速放大。叠加欧美监管升级，通过保险断供、 物理封锁等手段推动违规黑船加速出清，正规船队的稀缺性进一步强化。 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，2025年，全球累计新造船订单2036艘、5643万CGT，按CGT 计同比下降27%，主要系船厂排期较久、美国301调查等因素短暂压制船东下单欲望。25年12月、26年1 月单月全球新船订单成交量(CGT计)分别同比增长73%、34%，行业景气度拐点已显。该行认为船龄老 化主动更新、航运脱碳进程加速倒逼船队更新这两个结构性支撑将长期存在，继续推动本轮造船周期上 行，未来造 ...

方正证券发布研报称，短期看，多样化政策组合放大客流价值，有效促进节庆消费。全国及各地方推动 春节期间以旧换新、有奖发票、消费券补贴等促消费政策，有效拉动节庆期间消费，全面提升春节期间 线下渠道的客流、转化和动销效率，短期内推动线下终端的真实销售增长。长期看，伴随国补资金计划 陆续就位，市场对国补后周期预期的不确定性逐渐下降，利于家电市场长期企稳。 方正证券主要观点如下： 2025年国补杠杆效应亮眼，充分证明政策工具激活市场活力的必要性与可行性 国补促进消费基本面持续向好，2025年中国社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%，其中家电和音像器材 类商品零售额同比增长13.5%。国补政策自2024年下半年起陆续推广，推动家电类社零增速迅速超越社 零总体并保持高速增长，表明国补充分激发家电消费活力。 2026年"国补"范围调整，聚焦环保、科技产品 1)国补资金提前就位。发改委于2025年末向各地提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消 费品以旧换新的资金计划，该计划资金已于春节前夕就位。同时商务部要求在春节假期内保障消费者通 过线下渠道申领补贴，加强产品供货、增加农村市场参与度、组织举办专场促销，引导消费 ...

方正证券电力设备行业2026年策略指出，回顾2025年AIDC板块股价表现共经历五轮上涨行情，国内外 厂商上调CAPEX预计、业绩超预期和行业及公司技术进展成为主要驱动因素。展望2026年，AIDC行业 仍将保持高景气，一方面国内外头部互联网厂商纷纷公布2026年资本开支计划，海外厂商CAPEX指引 普遍高于50%，另一方面维谛、西门子、Flunce等海外头部电力设备厂商业绩表现亮眼，AIDC行业高成 长性或已反应在业绩端。而美国需求端因数据中心增长带来的用电量增长与供给端电力设备老旧现象严 重的矛盾为国内电力设备出海厂商带来机会。 ...

作者：柳白 中信建投表示，考虑到春节前避险情绪升温，情绪指数回落的季节性效应，预计市场短期面临情绪降温和指数回调压力。综合考虑当前市场增量资金和情绪 指数各分项指标，预计全A指数调整空间有限，且有望在春节前企稳，春节前后迎来新一轮上行行情。 招商证券指出，春节之后，由于临近两会召开，政策催化将会加速出现，春节之后指数有望有更好的表现。基本面层面，1-2月是数据真空期，从目前来 看，产业端的边际变化带来的业绩改善趋势仍然是市场关注的方向。顺周期涨价品种，以半导体光模块为代表的AI链依然是景气趋势之所在。 对于今年的春节行情，天风证券表示，不论是"十五五"开局之年的政策预期，全球流动性宽松前景，还是居民资金向权益资产配置的趋势，都可能强化节后 市场上涨的规律，今年"春节躁动"行情或更持续。另外，今年受"史上超长九天春节假期"的影响，消费需求释放明显早于往年，出行与消费规模有望再突 破，市场对"经济开门红"的预期或更稳定。 粤开证券则对当前市场行情提示了相关风险。粤开证券指出，2月行情并非毫无风险，短期仍需警惕三大扰动因素：一是海外市场的波动传导，美国加征关 税的政策落地、美股科技股的调整，或对A股相关板块形成短期 ...

Group 1 - Western Securities launched an online service from February 16 to 23, featuring 15 conference calls, with a focus on the AI industry, which gained significant attention during the holiday period [1] - Over 100 brokerage roadshows were scheduled during the Spring Festival, with more than 20 online roadshows from February 16 to 18 and over 80 roadshows from February 19 to 23, indicating a strong demand for research services [3] - Smaller brokerages have become the main players in holiday roadshows, using differentiated competition strategies to effectively reach target clients and meet the research needs of institutions holding stocks during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The surge in holiday roadshows is attributed to increased competition in the sell-side research industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees for public funds, with brokerage commission income declining significantly [4] - In the first half of 2025, total brokerage commission income fell by 33.98% year-on-year, with Western Securities experiencing a decline of over 20% and other firms like Open Source Securities seeing declines exceeding 40% [4] - Future industry developments suggest that large comprehensive brokerages will continue strategic investments in research, while medium-sized brokerages will intensify competition to offset the impact of declining fees [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities emphasizes that crude oil, as a core commodity in the global energy system, is significantly influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia forming a tripartite balance in supply. The financial attributes of oil can lead to short-term price deviations, while the political attributes reshape its supply and demand structure [1][31]. Group 1: Crude Oil Price Influencing Factors - Crude oil prices are primarily influenced by three attributes: commodity, financial, and political [2]. - The commodity attribute determines the long-term demand trend, while the financial attribute amplifies price volatility, and the political attribute introduces uncertainty [2][27]. - The global crude oil market features three main pricing systems based on different benchmark oils: WTI, Brent, and Dubai [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side of crude oil prices is highly correlated with global economic activity levels, oil inventories, and energy usage [4]. - Crude oil inventories play a crucial role in stabilizing market balance, acting as a buffer against supply disruptions [5]. - The current global crude oil supply structure is characterized by a tripartite balance among the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. projected to produce nearly 13.2 million barrels per day by 2024 [15]. Group 3: Financial Attributes and Market Dynamics - The dollar's role as the pricing currency for crude oil significantly impacts oil prices, reinforcing the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [21]. - There exists a dynamic inverse relationship between the dollar index and oil prices, with the dollar's strength typically leading to lower oil prices due to decreased purchasing power in other currencies [22][26]. - The oil market exhibits dual characteristics of commodity and financial attributes, with prices influenced by both supply-demand fundamentals and global financial market conditions [27]. Group 4: Political Attributes and Geopolitical Implications - The "shale revolution" and the establishment of the OPEC+ mechanism have led to a new tripartite oil supply system, increasing interactions and conflicts in energy geopolitics [31]. - The U.S. has shifted its energy strategy from independence to dominance, aiming to lead and influence the international energy market [32]. - The U.S. intervention in Venezuela is seen as a move to re-integrate significant oil reserves into the dollar settlement framework, potentially establishing a new anchor for the petrodollar system [35].

Core Viewpoint - The company Aihuilong (688575.SH) is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure, which has led to significant discrepancies between analyst predictions and actual financial performance [1][3][9]. Group 1: Company Performance and Analyst Predictions - Aihuilong's stock price showed minimal fluctuation after the announcement of the investigation, with a drop of less than 3% the following day, despite prior volatility [1][3]. - Prior to the investigation, Aihuilong's performance was unexpectedly poor, particularly noted by analyst Zhou Chaoze from Founder Securities, who had issued two reports recommending the stock [3][8]. - In August, a report predicted a recovery in Aihuilong's performance, estimating net profits of 126 million yuan and 297 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][9]. - The company's Q3 report revealed a net profit of less than 55 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous estimates, indicating a need for over 70 million yuan in Q4 to meet earlier forecasts [3][9]. - In November, despite the disappointing Q3 results, Zhou maintained a positive outlook, revising the profit estimates slightly down to 119 million yuan and 291 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 [4][9]. - Aihuilong later issued a profit warning in January, forecasting a net profit of only 20 million to 30 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 90.05% to 93.37% compared to the previous year [5][10]. - Ultimately, Aihuilong not only failed to achieve the projected Q4 profit but also incurred a loss of over 30 million yuan, resulting in actual profits being only a quarter of the analyst's earlier estimates [6][10].

Macro Dynamics - In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 4.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Net financing of corporate bonds was 503.3 billion yuan, an increase of 57.9 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Government bonds net financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Financial Institutions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have identified 21 systemically important banks in China, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [3] Market Data - On February 13, A-shares saw all three major indices drop over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.26% to below 4100 points [10] - The Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index down 1.72% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.9% [11] Company Dynamics - Zhengyuan Wisdom's actual controller, Chen Jian, was sentenced to three years in prison for manipulating the securities market, but the company's operations remain normal [12] - CATL, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Laopu Gold will be included in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 90 [13] - Sinopec announced the resignation of Li Yonglin from his positions as executive director and senior vice president [14][15] - Zongshen Power plans to swap its motorcycle engine business with Longxin General's general machinery business, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [16]