Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

Core Insights - China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent titled "Multiple Safety Redundancy Method and System for Power Battery Safety," with publication number CN121375487A and application date of October 2025 [1] - The patent focuses on safety management methods for power battery systems, utilizing a four-level redundancy mechanism to enhance dynamic safety [1] Group 1: Patent Details - The invention involves a method that employs a Federal Lyapunov-Graph Network Algorithm for local chaos feature extraction, regional fault propagation modeling, global privacy collaborative decision-making, and hardware rapid fuse [1] - The system consists of multiple battery modules, each including a local Battery Management System (BMS), regional controller, central safety gateway, and hardware fuse layer [1] - The invention aims to achieve early fault identification and improve the non-diffusion rate of battery packs in thermal runaway scenarios [1] Group 2: Company Background - China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and is located in Chongqing, primarily engaged in professional technical services [1] - The company has a registered capital of 1,004.18 million RMB [1] - According to data analysis, the company has invested in 38 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and holds 350 trademark records and 2,090 patent records, along with 100 administrative licenses [1]

Market Overview - The automotive service sector increased by 2.21% on January 23, with Guoji Automobile leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Stock Performance - Guoji Automobile (600335) closed at 7.05, up 4.91% with a trading volume of 676,800 shares and a transaction value of 473 million [1] - China Automotive Research (601965) closed at 20.24, up 4.60% with a trading volume of 279,600 shares and a transaction value of 553 million [1] - Xiamen Xinda (000701) closed at 6.88, up 4.08% with a trading volume of 261,600 shares and a transaction value of 178 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Zhongqi Co. (301215) up 1.66%, Beiba Media (600386) up 1.30%, and Shenhua Holdings (600653) up 1.01% [1] Capital Flow - The automotive service sector experienced a net outflow of 25.884 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.266 million [2] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Detailed Capital Flow Analysis - China Automotive Research (601965) had a net inflow of 40.064 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 48.685 million from retail investors [3] - Xiamen Xinda (000701) saw a net inflow of 29.717 million from institutional investors, with significant outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3] - Guoji Automobile (600335) had a net inflow of 9.610 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 16.229 million [3] - Other stocks like Alite (300825) showed a significant net outflow of 13.994 million from institutional investors, indicating a bearish sentiment [3]

Market Trends - AI hardware penetration is increasing, leading to a rise in the semiconductor industry, with PCB and memory prices continuing to rise[4] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged by 12.7% due to supply constraints and improving downstream demand[6] - The pork price has improved by 2.4% month-on-month, supported by consumption policies and seasonal demand[5] Consumer Insights - In the real estate sector, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down by 35.4%[5] - Retail sales of passenger cars have dropped significantly, with a 32% year-on-year decline in daily sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw a 38% drop[5] Industry Developments - The domestic company Tiangong International is focusing on powder metallurgy technology for nuclear fusion materials, with a target of 25% revenue growth over the next three years[8] - The cement production in Uganda has increased from 370,000 tons in 2000 to 5.1 million tons in 2023, driven by rapid urbanization and economic growth[12] Company Performance - Hikvision's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 141.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.46% year-on-year increase, driven by high-quality growth strategies[40] - Netflix's revenue for FY26 is expected to reach $511 billion, with a net profit of $135 billion, indicating a 22.5% year-on-year growth[48]

Market Overview - The automotive service sector experienced a decline of 0.99% on January 22, with Jiaoyun Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the automotive service sector included: - Shenhua Holdings (600653) with a closing price of 1.98, up 2.06% [1] - Xiamen Xinda (000701) at 6.61, up 2.01% [1] - Alter (300825) at 10.71, up 1.52% [1] - Jiaoyun Co. (600676) saw a significant drop of 8.85%, closing at 8.96 [2] Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume for Jiaoyun Co. was 829,800 shares, with a transaction value of 754 million [2] - The automotive service sector had a net inflow of 52.51 million from institutional investors and 83.42 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 136 million [2] Fund Flow Analysis - Major fund flows indicated: - Jiaoyun Co. had a net outflow of 33.62 million from institutional investors [3] - Shenhua Holdings experienced a net inflow of 10.58 million from institutional investors [3] - The overall sector saw a mixed response with varying net inflows and outflows across different stocks [3]

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights the strengthening of AI hardware demand and the continuation of technology manufacturing overseas, with the semiconductor industry experiencing further improvement due to increased AI penetration and export growth in power equipment [4] - Prices of lithium carbonate have surged significantly due to supply constraints and improved downstream demand expectations, while pork prices have also seen improvements supported by consumption policies [4] - Traditional real estate and durable goods sectors continue to face pressure, with a notable decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [5] Group 2: Industry Tracking - Consumer Electronics - Domestic companies are making breakthroughs in powder metallurgy processes, particularly in nuclear fusion materials, which are expected to benefit from a surge in downstream demand [8] - Tian Gong International, a leader in powder metallurgy, has set ambitious performance targets, indicating strong growth confidence [8] - The company is focusing on high-boron steel and advanced low-activation steel for nuclear fusion applications, leveraging its powder metallurgy technology for cost advantages [9] Group 3: Industry Research - Cement Manufacturing - Uganda is identified as a key market for cement exports, with a rapidly growing economy and increasing cement demand driven by urbanization [12] - The country has a favorable supply structure with only three clinker production lines, leading to a competitive market landscape [13] - Despite high cement prices, profitability remains challenging due to high production costs and logistical issues [14] Group 4: Industry Research - Consumer Discretionary - The smart glasses industry is entering a growth phase, with companies like Mingyue Lens expected to benefit from collaborations with leading brands [16] - The introduction of new smart glasses models, such as Ray-Ban Meta, is anticipated to enhance user experience and expand market applications [17] - The supply chain for AI glasses is broadening, with various players from different sectors entering the market, indicating a significant expansion of the industry [18] Group 5: Company Coverage - BAIC Blue Valley - The company is positioned as a pioneer in China's new energy vehicle sector, with a dual-brand strategy driving revenue growth [21] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 290 billion, 582 billion, and 889 billion CNY respectively, with a focus on autonomous driving technology [21][22] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with expectations for continued growth through new model launches [23] Group 6: Company Tracking - Hikvision - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 141.88 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [40] - Hikvision's strategic shift towards high-quality, sustainable profit growth has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability [41] - The integration of AI into its product offerings is anticipated to drive long-term growth [42] Group 7: Company Tracking - Anfu Technology - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the semiconductor sector while maintaining strong performance in its core battery business [45] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are expected to show significant growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and market expansion [45] - The company is leveraging its established brand to enhance its competitive position in the charging market [46] Group 8: Overseas Report - Netflix - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 51.1 billion, 57.6 billion, and 64.6 billion USD from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on expanding its content offerings [48] - Netflix's advertising revenue is expected to double, contributing significantly to its overall financial performance [51] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is anticipated to enhance content diversity and production capabilities [51]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.061 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The company maintains a steady operational momentum, benefiting from the upcoming L3 autonomous driving strong inspection business, which is anticipated to expand the market space [12]. - The company forecasts a total revenue of 4.97 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase. In the fourth quarter, the revenue is projected to reach 1.94 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year and 74% quarter-on-quarter [12]. - The L3 autonomous driving strong inspection market is set to expand, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approving two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle products, marking the entry into the L3 era. This certification will significantly enlarge the strong inspection market [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.096 billion yuan in 2023, 4.697 billion yuan in 2024, 4.950 billion yuan in 2025, 5.876 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.962 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 24.5%, 14.7%, 5.4%, 18.7%, and 18.5% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 836 million yuan in 2023, 908 million yuan in 2024, 1.061 billion yuan in 2025, 1.287 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.584 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 21.3%, 8.6%, 16.8%, 21.3%, and 23.1% respectively [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.83 yuan in 2023, 0.91 yuan in 2024, 1.06 yuan in 2025, 1.28 yuan in 2026, and 1.58 yuan in 2027 [10]. Market Data - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 16.38 to 20.30 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19.951 billion yuan and a total share capital of 1,003 million shares [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on the current price and latest diluted share capital is projected to be 23.86 for 2023, decreasing to 12.59 by 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.061 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The company maintains a steady operational momentum, benefiting from the upcoming L3 autonomous driving strong inspection business, which is anticipated to expand the market space [12]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% increase compared to the previous year. The fourth quarter is expected to generate 1.94 billion yuan in revenue, an 18% year-on-year increase and a 74% quarter-on-quarter increase [12]. - The report highlights that the L3 autonomous driving strong inspection market is set to expand, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approving two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle products, marking the entry into the L3 era [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 4.096 billion yuan - 2024: 4.697 billion yuan (up 14.7%) - 2025: 4.950 billion yuan (up 5.4%) - 2026: 5.876 billion yuan (up 18.7%) - 2027: 6.962 billion yuan (up 18.5%) [10][13] - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) projections are: - 2023: 836 million yuan - 2024: 908 million yuan (up 8.6%) - 2025: 1.061 billion yuan (up 16.8%) - 2026: 1.287 billion yuan (up 21.3%) - 2027: 1.584 billion yuan (up 23.1%) [10][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 0.83 yuan - 2024: 0.91 yuan - 2025: 1.06 yuan - 2026: 1.28 yuan - 2027: 1.58 yuan [10][13]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 29.50 yuan, with a current market capitalization of 19.951 billion yuan [4][5]. - The stock has traded within a range of 16.38 to 20.30 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive service sector experienced a rise of 1.35% on January 21, with Jiaoyun Co. leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jiaoyun Co. (600676) closed at 9.83, with a significant increase of 9.96% and a trading volume of 418,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 394 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai Wumart (600822) saw a closing price of 11.80, up 4.06%, with a trading volume of 270,900 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 323 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included Alter (300825) with a closing price of 10.55, up 0.86%, and Zhongqi Co. (301215) at 7.21, up 0.70% [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The automotive service sector had a net inflow of 91.74 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 61.88 million yuan [2]. - Main funds showed significant interest in Jiaoyun Co. with a net inflow of 71.77 million yuan, representing 18.24% of the total, while retail investors had a net outflow of 39.67 million yuan [3]. - Shanghai Wumart also attracted main fund inflows of 23.89 million yuan, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 37.51 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (China Automotive Research) has experienced a stock price fluctuation with a recent decline of 2.01%, while showing a year-to-date increase of 17.41% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 21, the stock price is reported at 19.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.55 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.81%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.55 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a 14.45% increase over the last five trading days, a 9.74% increase over the last 20 days, and a 16.85% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.024 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 666 million CNY, down 0.56% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.848 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.074 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 18.75% to 21,600, with an average of 46,048 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 15.79% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable increases in holdings by China Europe Pension Mixed A and China Europe Insight Mixed A [3]