锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2026/01/09-2026/01/22) 行 业 2025 年全球储能电池出货同比增长超 80% 2026 年 1 月 23 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 行情回顾：截至2026年1月22日，锂电池指数近两周下跌5.75%，跑输沪 深300指数5.46个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计下跌4.84%，跑输沪 深300指数6.87个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今下跌4.84%，跑输沪深300 指数6.87个百分点。 周 报 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 锂电池指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 锂盐：截至2026年1月22日，电池级碳酸锂均价16.61万元/吨，近两周上 涨19.84%；氢氧化锂(LiOH 56.5%)报价16.02万元/吨，近两周上涨17.19%。 正极材料：动力型磷酸铁锂报价5.48万元/吨，储能型磷酸铁锂报价5.39 万元/吨，近两周分别上涨16.60%和18.46%；NCM523、NCM622、NCM8 ...

证券代码：603659 证券简称：璞泰来 公告编号：2026-003 上海璞泰来新能源科技集团股份有限公司 关于对子公司提供的担保进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 担保对象及基本情况 | | 被担保人名称 | "广东嘉拓"） | | 广东嘉拓自动化技术有限公司（以下简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 担保 | 本次担保金额 | 12,000 | 万元 | | | 对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 97,000 | 万元 | | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | □否 | □不适用：_________ | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | 否 | □不适用：_________ | 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0.00 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股子 | 1,750,115.00 | | 公司对外担保总额（万元） | | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一期 | 9 ...

Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate market price has returned to 170,000 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in market activity following a drop to 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating market acceptance of the new price level [7] - The domestic lithium battery market is expected to see stable prices in the first quarter, with a projected year-on-year production decline of only 10-15%, which is better than previous years [15] Market Insights - In 2025, China's automobile sales are projected to reach 34.4 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for 50.8% of domestic sales [3] - The Congo government has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mineral assets to the U.S., aiming to attract investment and enhance its influence in the critical mineral supply chain [4] Company Developments - Wanrun New Energy plans to invest 1.079 billion yuan in a high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate project, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons per year [5] - Putailai has forecasted a net profit of 230 to 240 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [6] Price Trends - As of January 22, 2025, the price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 161,000 to 168,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade is between 147,000 to 153,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price for ternary materials is experiencing fluctuations, driven by the rise in lithium carbonate prices, with 5-series single crystal materials priced at 195,000 to 202,000 yuan/ton [9] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of phosphoric acid is expected to be tight this year, influencing the pricing and availability of lithium iron phosphate [10] - The electrode material market is stable, with some small and medium manufacturers increasing prices for mid- to low-end products by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [12] Future Outlook - The global lithium battery application market is anticipated to grow significantly from 2025 to 2029, with ongoing research and competitive strategy analysis being conducted [18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Focus: Electric Vehicle and Energy Storage Sector Core Insights and Arguments 1. The electric vehicle and energy storage sectors are structurally improving, benefiting companies like CATL and EVE Energy. Recent announcements from multiple automakers reveal ambitious sales targets for 2026, including: - Leap Motor: 1 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 67.6% - NIO: 456,400 to 489,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% - Xiaomi Auto: 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 34% - Hongmeng Zhixing: 1 million to 1.3 million units, with an upper limit year-on-year increase of approximately 120% [1][2] 2. According to Xinluo Lithium Battery data, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2,297 GWh by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. The core sources of growth will be: - Power batteries: 1,495 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.5% - Energy storage batteries: 636 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 92.7%, with a market share exceeding 27% [2] 3. CATL has signed a five-year strategic cooperation memorandum with Changan Automobile, focusing on advanced fields such as battery swapping, smart automotive robotics, flying cars, and embodied intelligence [2]. Upstream Lithium Carbonate Supply and Demand 1. The supply and demand for lithium carbonate continue to improve, benefiting companies like Salt Lake Industry and Dazhong Mining. By 2025, China's lithium carbonate production is projected to reach 976,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49%. The proportion of spodumene production is rising, while mica production is expected to decline significantly due to policy adjustments. The lithium carbonate market is anticipated to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with price centers expected to rise [3]. 2. Dazhong Mining plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium mining project in Hunan, which is expected to produce approximately 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually upon reaching full capacity [3]. 3. The global solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of engineering and industrialization, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Putailai poised to benefit. Recently, Dongfeng Motor has initiated cold weather testing for solid-state batteries [3]. Industry Focus: Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Sector Key Developments 1. Investment in the power grid and AI-driven demand for electrical equipment are on the rise, benefiting companies like Sungrow Power Supply, Sieng Electric, and Sifang Co. The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a 40% increase compared to the previous plan. The core objective is to support carbon peak by 2030 and to initially establish a new energy system [4]. 2. Smart microgrids are expected to be a key focus in 2026, with their core value lying in utilizing energy storage technology (especially grid-connected storage) to address renewable energy consumption and improve power supply reliability in remote areas [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong is expected to continue into 2026, driven by multiple favorable policies, with 11 companies already announcing their intentions within the first three weeks of the year [1]. Group 1: A-share Companies Planning to List - As of January 22, 2026, 11 A-share companies, including Huichuan Technology and Xingye Silver, have announced plans for Hong Kong listings, with 9 of these companies having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan, accounting for over 80% [1][3]. - The leading company by market capitalization among these is Huichuan Technology, valued at approximately 214.2 billion yuan, followed by Xingye Silver at 935.05 billion yuan and Desay SV at 766.53 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Over 80% of the 11 companies planning to list in Hong Kong are expected to be profitable by the third quarter of 2025, with 9 companies reporting profits [5]. - Huichuan Technology leads in profitability with an estimated profit of 4.25 billion yuan, followed closely by Zhengtai Electric with approximately 4.18 billion yuan [5][6]. - Two companies, Haitai Bio and Xianle Health, reported losses, with net profits of approximately -103 million yuan and -158 million yuan, respectively [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is seeing a rise in hard technology companies, with 4 out of the 11 companies in the power equipment sector [5]. - The "A+H" listing model is becoming a mainstream choice for companies' global strategies, with over 100 A-share companies currently in the queue for Hong Kong listings, representing over 30% of the total 343 companies waiting to go public [7]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to remain active in 2026, with the "A+H" model continuing to thrive alongside the return of Chinese concept stocks and specialized technology companies [8].

Group 1 - On January 21, a total of 12 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with 2 stocks announcing target prices [1] - Based on the highest target price, Putailai and Zhongrong Electric ranked first in target price increase, with increases of 47.91% and 27.62% respectively [1] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, the sectors with the most stocks were technology hardware and equipment, semiconductors and semiconductor production equipment, and capital goods, with 3, 2, and 2 stocks respectively [1] Group 2 - 9 stocks maintained their ratings, 1 stock had an upgraded rating, and 2 stocks received ratings for the first time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The number of companies in the A-share market forecasting profit growth for 2025 is increasing, driven significantly by the commercialization of AI technology and strong demand in various sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: AI-Driven Growth - As of January 20, 177 companies in the A-share market have announced profit increases, with 55 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 100% year-on-year, excluding those returning to profitability [1]. - Shanghai Jianqiao Technology Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 252 million to 278 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.19% to 66.79%, driven by strong market demand for high-speed optical modules and other core businesses [1]. - Dongguan Dingtong Precision Technology Co., Ltd. expects a revenue growth of 54.37% and a net profit growth of 119.59% in 2025, attributed to robust demand in the AI-driven communications connector market [2]. Group 2: New Energy Sector Performance - Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.18% to 101.58%, supported by the ongoing trend of electrification in the automotive market and strong demand in the energy storage market [2][3]. - The company highlights improvements in operational conditions and the introduction of new products and processes to capture high-end customer demand [3]. Group 3: Mining Sector Growth - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. projects a net profit of approximately 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by increased production of key mineral products and rising prices of gold, copper, and silver [4]. - Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71%, due to a combination of increased production and effective cost management [4]. - Analysts suggest that the prices of copper and other mineral resources are likely to remain high, benefiting related companies as demand from emerging industries continues to grow [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Putailai expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 93.18% to 101.58% [2] - The primary reasons for the profit increase include the ongoing trend of electrification and intelligence in the global automotive market, strong growth in the energy storage market, and a recovery in the consumer electronics market, leading to improved operational conditions [2] - Putailai's wet-process diaphragm and coating processing business have seen substantial growth, with an increase in the self-sufficiency rate of base films, enhancing the synergy of "materials + equipment + processes" [2] Group 2 - The company has effectively captured the incremental demand from high-end customers and the energy storage market, leading to a rebound in operational performance [2] - The sales of functional materials such as PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride), PAA (polyacrylic acid binder), and ceramic coating materials have rapidly increased, contributing significantly to performance growth [2] - The graphite anode material business has focused on cost reduction measures and aligned with mainstream customer demands for fast charging, long cycle life, and high-capacity new products, leading to a recovery in operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 93.18% to 101.58% [1][2] Group 1 - The primary reasons for the profit increase include the ongoing trend of electrification and intelligence in the global automotive market, strong growth in the energy storage market, and a recovery in the consumer electronics market [1] - The end of the inventory destocking cycle for new energy batteries and materials has contributed to an improved operating environment [1] - The company has implemented measures to enhance quality and efficiency, closely collaborating with core customers to meet R&D needs and effectively capturing incremental demand from high-end clients and the energy storage market [1] Group 2 - The wet diaphragm and coating processing business of Putailai has seen substantial growth, with an increase in the self-sufficiency rate of base films [2] - The introduction of new base film products and coating processes has effectively matched customer product upgrade demands [2] - The company has focused on cost-reduction measures in graphite anode materials, addressing mainstream customer needs for fast charging, long cycle life, and high capacity products, leading to a recovery in business performance [2] - Sales of functional materials such as PVDF, PAA, and ceramic coating materials have rapidly increased, contributing significantly to performance growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that Putailai's negative electrode profitability has reached a turning point, with multiple business segments showing continuous improvement. The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 to 2.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 93% to 102% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be 650 million yuan, marking a year-on-year turnaround and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in shipments, with an expected output of 40,000 to 50,000 tons in Q1 2026, reflecting a notable quarter-on-quarter improvement [1] - For the year 2026, the total expected shipments are projected to reach 250,000 tons, nearly doubling from previous figures [1] Group 2: Product and Capacity Development - The first phase of the Sichuan plant, with a capacity of 100,000 tons, has gradually commenced production, contributing to the anticipated increase in output [1] - The coated film segment is expected to ship 2.8 billion square meters in Q4 2025, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, with a projected total shipment of over 10 billion square meters for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - For 2026, the company forecasts shipments of 14 to 15 billion square meters, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of over 40% [1] Group 3: Profitability and Valuation - The profitability of the negative electrode segment is expected to remain stable in Q4 2025, with projections indicating a recovery to nearly 2000 yuan per ton in 2026 due to the introduction of low-cost production capacity [1] - The company possesses capabilities for solid-state full-line solutions and has a diversified material layout, which supports its growth strategy [1] - Considering the company's positioning in the solid-state sector, a target price of 43.5 yuan is set based on a 30x PE ratio for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]