行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 26 日 关注关税政策变化、AI 眼镜新品催 化；家居和内需消费有望边际改善 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/02/09-2026/02/23 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 - 汇率大幅波动的风险；关税预期波动的风险 ⚫ 1）出口：关税政策变化，海外下游存补库预期，推荐 Alpha ...

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Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.17% decline in stock price on February 2, with a trading volume of 185 million yuan, indicating potential market volatility and investor sentiment concerns [1]. Financing Summary - On February 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. had a financing buy-in amount of 29.9765 million yuan and a financing repayment of 11.1683 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 18.8082 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities balance for Xianhe Co., Ltd. reached 235 million yuan, which is 1.43% of its circulating market value, indicating a low financing balance compared to the past year [1]. - The company had no shares repaid in securities lending on February 2, with 200 shares sold, amounting to 4,656 yuan at the closing price, and a securities lending balance of 344,500 yuan, also at a low level compared to the past year [1]. Company Overview - Xianhe Co., Ltd., established on December 19, 2001, and listed on April 20, 2018, is located in Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, focusing on the research, production, and sales of high-performance paper-based functional materials and their raw materials [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes daily consumer products (42.67%), food and medical packaging materials (17.26%), and other categories, with a total revenue of 9.063 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.80% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 778 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.77% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Xianhe Co., Ltd. had 13,800 shareholders, a decrease of 8.19% from the previous period, with an average of 51,276 circulating shares per person, an increase of 9.20% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.774 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 819 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 3.8612 million shares, an increase of 565,600 shares compared to the previous period [3].

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 4.18% on February 2, with Huatai Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huatai Co. (600308) closed at 3.90, down 7.36% with a trading volume of 516,000 shares and a turnover of 206 million yuan [1] - Sun Paper (002078) closed at 15.69, down 6.72% with a trading volume of 406,700 shares and a turnover of 652 million yuan [1] - Xianhe Co. (603733) closed at 23.28, down 5.17% with a trading volume of 77,600 shares and a turnover of 185 million yuan [1] - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) closed at 13.40, down 5.10% with a trading volume of 104,400 shares and a turnover of 144 million yuan [1] - Hengfeng Paper (600356) closed at 9.36, down 4.97% with a trading volume of 172,800 shares and a turnover of 164 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 149 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [1] - The table indicates that institutional investors had varying levels of net inflow and outflow across different stocks, with Sun Paper showing a net inflow of 32.24 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Xianhe Co. had a significant net inflow of 26.34 million yuan from institutional investors, while other stocks like Yuyuan Lin Paper (600963) experienced substantial net outflows [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has successfully launched its first phase of the aramid fiber project in early 2025, with stable production and quality meeting standards, targeting high-end applications in various industries [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The aramid fiber project by Zhejiang Xianhe Aimed New Materials Co., Ltd. has been completed and is now in production [1] - The products are primarily used in safety protection, environmental filtration, electrical insulation, and honeycomb core materials [1] - The company has made progress in market expansion and has achieved sales in relevant downstream industries [1]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.02% on January 29, with Yueyang Lin Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down by 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Yueyang Lin Paper rising by 4.76% to a closing price of 5.28, and other notable stocks like Kain Co. and ST Chenming also showing positive gains [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 108 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 115 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks varied, with Kain Co. having a significant net inflow from retail investors despite an overall negative trend in major funds [3] - Individual stock performances indicated mixed results in fund flows, with some stocks like Kain Co. and Yibin Paper attracting positive retail interest, while others faced outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, indicating that valuations are at a bottom and are expected to rise due to favorable real estate policies [2][5][17] Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved real estate policies and market stabilization, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [2][5][6] - The metal packaging industry is seeing price increases for two-piece cans, leading to improved profitability and a more consolidated industry structure [2][5][6] - The AI glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with Meta's optimistic shipment forecasts and partnerships enhancing production capabilities [2][10][11] - The paper industry is stabilizing in the short term, with potential for improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability in the medium term [2][14][15] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a bottoming out of valuations, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward movement. The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, which is anticipated to improve demand for home furnishings [6][17] - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support demand recovery, while industry consolidation is accelerating, with mid-tier companies exiting the market [6][7][17] - Key companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are positioned well for valuation recovery [2][5][6] Metal Packaging - The industry is witnessing price increases for two-piece cans, with a confirmed profit margin turning point in 2026. The consolidation of leading companies is enhancing pricing power and profitability [2][5][6][8] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly beer and carbonated beverages, is expected to drive growth, with significant room for improvement in can penetration rates compared to developed markets [7][8] AI Glasses - Meta's production capacity for AI glasses is rapidly increasing, with expectations to double output to 20 million units by the end of 2026. This growth is supported by strong market demand and technological advancements [10][11] - Partnerships with companies like EssilorLuxottica and the establishment of joint ventures are expected to accelerate the rollout of AI glasses [11][12] Paper Industry - The short-term stability of boxboard prices is noted, with medium-term improvements in supply-demand dynamics anticipated to enhance profitability [14][15] - The report highlights the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages for companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, which are well-positioned to benefit from market recovery [14][15]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.37% on January 26, with Minshida leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the paper sector included: - Rongsheng Environmental: closed at 15.24, up 4.03% with a trading volume of 83,700 shares and a turnover of 126 million yuan [1] - Xianhe Co.: closed at 24.33, up 1.33% with a trading volume of 67,100 shares and a turnover of 162 million yuan [1] - Bohui Paper: closed at 7.26, up 1.26% with a trading volume of 258,900 shares and a turnover of 2.68 million yuan [1] - Decliners included: - Minshida: closed at 60.63, down 3.91% with a trading volume of 43,900 shares and a turnover of 267 million yuan [2] - Zhixing Paper: closed at 5.69, down 3.72% with a trading volume of 1,020,800 shares and a turnover of 586 million yuan [2] - Songyang Resources: closed at 20.63, down 3.55% with a trading volume of 95,700 shares and a turnover of 201 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 228 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 272 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Rongsheng Environmental: main funds net inflow of 16.49 million yuan, retail net outflow of 13.34 million yuan [3] - Shanying International: main funds net inflow of 15.57 million yuan, retail net outflow of 2.45 million yuan [3] - Wuzhou Special Paper: main funds net inflow of 12.66 million yuan, retail net outflow of 11.05 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has been steadily growing its exports to the European market, particularly the EU, which is a significant part of its international strategy [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In 2024, the company's export revenue is projected to account for 7.89% of its total operating income [1] - The EU market is highlighted as a crucial component of the company's overseas expansion efforts [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has established stable business channels in Europe, integrating its products into the supply chains of many well-known global clients [1] - Sales to the EU are primarily conducted through domestic entities, supplemented by third-party traders and agents [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue aligning with national strategies to deepen its international market presence, including the EU [1] - There is a focus on enhancing product development and customer service to secure sustainable orders and improve competitiveness in overseas markets [1]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.09% on January 23, with Minshida leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up by 0.79% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Minshida rising by 11.09% to a closing price of 63.10 [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 227 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 280 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Minshida had a significant net inflow of 61.21 million yuan from major funds, while other stocks like Annie Co. and Qifeng New Materials experienced mixed fund flows [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover in the paper sector reflected active participation, with notable transactions in stocks like Annie Co. and Qifeng New Materials [2][3]