东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 2024 年收入高增，2025 年稳中求进 2025 年 03 月 11 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 226.67 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 298.06/176.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.65 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 东鹏饮料 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年收入高增，新品亮眼—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.1.23 《开局良好，新品可期—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.23 《2023 年高速增长，2024 年势头良好 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.4.17 食品饮料/饮料乳品 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790 ...

东鹏饮料（605499） 证券研究报告 24 年顺利收官，25 年目标积极 事件：24 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 158.39/33.27 亿元，同比+40.63%/6 3.09%。其中 24Q4 实现营收/归母净利润 32.81/6.19 亿元，同比+25.12%/+ 61.21%。 东鹏饮料稳定增长，电解制水增长提速。东鹏特饮/电解制水/其他饮料 24 年营收 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元（同比+28.49%/+280.37%/+103.19%），销 量分别同 比 +29.14%/+279.78%/+59.85% ）， 吨 价 分 别 同 比 -0.50%/+0.16%/+27.12%，产销率均达到 94%+；其中 Q4 分别营收同比 +18.52%/+237.30%/+22.20%。东鹏特饮稳定增长，24 年东鹏特饮在全国能 量饮料市场销售量占比 47.9%（同比+4.9pct），销售额份额占比 34.9%（同 比+4.0pct），500ml 瓶装东鹏特饮在尼尔森中国饮料单品排行中稳居前三。 电解制水同比增速高达 280%+，成功将消费场景从传统"困累"场景延伸至 运动补水的"汗点"场景 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月11日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 优于大市 2024 年收入同比增长 41%，盈利能力提升 公司 2024 年收入同比增长 41%。东鹏饮料发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年实现收入 158.39 亿元，同比增长 40.63%，归母净利润 33.27 亿元， 同比增长 63.09%。其中四季度营收 32.81 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；归母 净利润 6.19 亿元，同比增长 61.21%。回款方面，2024 年公司销售商品 收到的现金约 204.30 亿元，同比+46.98%；其中四季度回款 64.39 亿， 同比增长 74.4%。2024 年，公司已有 3193 家经销商，销售终端网点数 量近 400 万家，实现地级市覆盖率达到 100%，东鹏饮料全国化进程稳步 推进，在能量饮料行业的份额逐年提升。 特饮仍在加速全国化，第二曲线收入占比已达 16%。分品类看，2024 年特 饮/补水啦/其他饮料收入分别为 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元，同比增长 28.49%/280.37%/103.2%，其中，补水啦通过延展口味、提高铺市率维 持高速增长；其他 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月11日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 优于大市 2024 年收入同比增长 41%，盈利能力提升 公司 2024 年收入同比增长 41%。东鹏饮料发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年实现收入 158.39 亿元，同比增长 40.63%，归母净利润 33.27 亿元， 同比增长 63.09%。其中四季度营收 32.81 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；归母 净利润 6.19 亿元，同比增长 61.21%。回款方面，2024 年公司销售商品 收到的现金约 204.30 亿元，同比+46.98%；其中四季度回款 64.39 亿， 同比增长 74.4%。2024 年，公司已有 3193 家经销商，销售终端网点数 量近 400 万家，实现地级市覆盖率达到 100%，东鹏饮料全国化进程稳步 推进，在能量饮料行业的份额逐年提升。 特饮仍在加速全国化，第二曲线收入占比已达 16%。分品类看，2024 年特 饮/补水啦/其他饮料收入分别为 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元，同比增长 28.49%/280.37%/103.2%，其中，补水啦通过延展口味、提高铺市率维 持高速增长；其他 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [4][10] - The product matrix of "dual engines + multiple categories" is gradually improving, with significant growth in both the Eastroc Energy Drink and the Eastroc Hydration product lines [10][11] - The company plans to expand its product offerings to include herbal teas and plant-based beverages, aligning with health trends in the industry [10] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 32.62 billion yuan [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 32.81 billion yuan, a 25.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [4][5] Product Performance - The Eastroc Energy Drink generated revenue of 133.04 billion yuan in 2024, a 28% increase year-on-year, accounting for 84.1% of total revenue [5] - The Eastroc Hydration product line achieved revenue of 14.95 billion yuan, a remarkable 280% increase year-on-year, capturing 9.5% of total revenue [5] - Other beverages contributed 10.2 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 103% year-on-year increase [5] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution, key accounts, online, and other channels reached 136.1 billion, 17.4 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.3 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth in online sales [6] - The number of active distributors exceeded 3,000, with nearly 4 million active sales points, supporting the company's channel expansion strategy [6][7] Regional Performance - Revenue by region in 2024: Guangdong (4.36 billion yuan), East China (2.20 billion yuan), Central China (2.07 billion yuan), Guangxi (1.15 billion yuan), Southwest (1.72 billion yuan), and North China (1.86 billion yuan), with notable growth in North China and Southwest regions [6][7] Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [9] - The net profit margin reached 21.0%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025, with net profit also expected to grow by at least 20% [11] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 4.483 billion yuan, with an EPS of 8.62 yuan [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 262.31, compared to the last closing price of 228.95 [1][10][19] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion, up 63.09% year-on-year [3][11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 per share, totaling 1.3 billion [3] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue and profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025 [10] Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of 3.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%, and a net profit of 619 million, up 61.21% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall sales revenue exceeded 20 billion, marking a 47% increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 44.8% for the year, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 21.0% [9][10] Product Performance - The company's flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, achieved a market share increase of 4.9 percentage points to 47.9% [4] - The new product "Brew Water" saw an extraordinary growth rate of 280%, becoming a billion-level product within two years [4] Regional Expansion - The company experienced significant growth in various regions, with the North region showing an 83.9% increase in revenue [5] - The number of active sales points grew to nearly 4 million, a 17.6% increase year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company aims for revenue projections of 20.653 billion, 25.503 billion, and 30.136 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding profit targets of 4.366 billion, 5.454 billion, and 6.331 billion [11][15] - The company is also pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on the energy drink market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation in line with the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with operating income expected to rise from 15,838.85 million in 2024 to 30,579.52 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.10% [5]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 3,326.43 million in 2024 to 6,665.50 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, projected to remain around 45.80% from 2026 to 2027, suggesting effective cost management [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 43.27% in 2024 to 27.50% in 2027, reflecting a potential increase in equity base due to retained earnings [5]. Financial Summary Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 22,676.30 million in 2024 to 47,275.73 million by 2027, indicating robust asset accumulation [4]. - Current liabilities are expected to increase from 14,845.04 million in 2024 to 22,893.14 million in 2027, which may impact liquidity ratios [4]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to decrease from 5,789.41 million in 2024 to 4,634.76 million in 2025, before recovering to 8,473.49 million by 2027 [4]. - The net cash increase is projected to rise significantly from 453.09 million in 2024 to 7,652.03 million in 2027, indicating improved cash management [4]. Income Statement - The operating profit is expected to grow from 4,144.77 million in 2024 to 8,229.02 million in 2027, showcasing strong operational efficiency [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 6.40 in 2024 to 12.82 in 2027, reflecting the company's profitability growth [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 17.86 in 2027, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation over time [5]. - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decline from 66.08% in 2024 to 48.72% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][10][15] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [4][10] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs, focusing on energy drinks and electrolyte beverages as its main revenue sources [9][10] - The company is experiencing a significant improvement in profit margins due to cost reductions and economies of scale, with a gross margin of 44.81% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.603 billion yuan, 25.653 billion yuan, and 30.722 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 30.1%, 24.5%, and 19.8% [7][10] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.390 billion yuan, 5.537 billion yuan, and 6.774 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.0%, 26.1%, and 22.4% [7][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 43.4% in 2025, 42.1% in 2026, and 40.1% in 2027 [13] Market and Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on a national expansion strategy, with significant revenue growth in regions such as North China and Southwest China, achieving year-on-year growth rates of 83.85% and 54.65% respectively [9][10] - The company’s sales channels are diversified, with significant contributions from distribution, key accounts, and online sales, showing rapid growth in the latter two [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][11]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with revenue, net profit, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items reaching 15.84 billion, 3.33 billion, and 3.26 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 41%, 63%, and 74% [1]. - The company is well-positioned for continued growth in 2025, driven by strong performance in the electrolyte water segment and a robust national distribution strategy [4]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings and market presence, with a notable increase in market share for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which now holds a 34.9% market share [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, net profit of 620 million yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 600 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 61%, and 63% respectively [1]. - The company’s revenue from energy drinks reached 13.3 billion yuan in 2024, up 28% year-on-year, while electrolyte water revenue surged by 280% to 1.5 billion yuan, increasing its share from 3% to 9% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a 7.6% decrease in unit costs in 2024, primarily due to lower prices for raw materials such as white sugar and PET packaging, contributing to a 1.75 percentage point increase in gross margin [3]. - The company’s net profit margin improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the coming years, with projected net profits of 4.45 billion, 5.63 billion, and 6.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 33.9%, 26.4%, and 22.7% [4][5]. - The company is actively exploring international markets and diversifying its product portfolio, including the launch of new health-oriented beverages [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 158.39 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 202.85 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 40.63% [3][11] - The company has established a dual-engine growth model with its energy drink and electrolyte drink products, contributing to a strong market presence [4][8] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and international brand image [9] Company Overview - The company reported a total revenue of 158.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 63.09% [3][11] - The company’s main products, including Dongpeng Energy Drink and the newly launched electrolyte drink "Bushi La," have shown strong sales growth, with revenue contributions of 133.04 billion yuan and 14.95 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [4][5] - The company has a robust distribution network with over 3,000 distributors and nearly 4 million active retail outlets, contributing to its revenue growth [6][8] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved to 44.81% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and increased interest income from deposits [7][11] - The company expects to maintain a net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025, with projected net profits of 44.61 billion yuan [10][11] - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with revenues reaching 299.26 billion yuan by 2027 [11][13]