盈利预测方面，该行预计东鹏饮料2025至27年各年预测净利润将分别实现32%、28%及22%的增长， 2025至2027年间的盈利复合年增长率料25%。 中国功能饮料的人均消费量为9.9升，而美国为54.9升，日本为21.9升，泰国为16.5升。根据研究机构估 计，功能饮料在2025年至2029年预测期间的复合年增长率为10.9%，而软饮料为5.9%。东鹏饮料是第二 大参与者，2024年价值市场份额为23%，仅次于红牛的24.7%，在能量饮料细分市场，东鹏和红牛的份 额分别为37%和31%。麦格理相信，凭借其渠道渗透力和销售效率，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大份额。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，东鹏饮料(09980)是中国功能饮料行业的第二大参与者，按价值 计市场份额为23%；若按销量计，则为第一大参与者，份额达26.3%。该行相信，凭借其广泛的渠道渗 透率和高效管控的销售追踪系统，东鹏饮料能够继续扩大市场份额。该行因此首次覆盖并给予"跑赢大 市"评级，对其A股及H股目标价分别307元人民币与345港元。该估值基于预测2027年市盈率25倍，考虑 到其高达25%的两年盈利复合年增长率，该行认为此估值水平合理。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the liquor segment, driven by increased market demand during the Spring Festival sales season and positive expectations for leading brands like Moutai [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) saw a price increase of 1.53%, with a peak intraday gain of 2.04% [1][2]. - Key stocks in the liquor sector, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Xin Dairy, and Jiugui Liquor, reported gains exceeding 4%, while Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao rose over 3% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in liquor stocks is attributed to the expanded market demand during the Spring Festival and optimistic expectations regarding Moutai's sales performance and quota policies [1][3]. - The current market environment has led to a renewed focus on the "certainty premium" and safe-haven attributes of high-end liquor, contributing to a rotation effect within the sector [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.37, placing it in the 8.61% percentile of the last decade [3]. - The low valuation and improving market sentiment provide a favorable entry point for long-term investments in the sector [3].

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 张国锋 2月3日，东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司正式在香港主板上市（股票代码09980.HK），成为深圳市、 南山区2026年首家以"A+H"模式（即同时在内地A股和香港H股上市）登陆资本市场的企业。 作为中国功能饮料领军者，东鹏饮料精准把握行业发展趋势，稳居功能饮料赛道领跑地位，同时紧扣健 康化、细分化消费需求构建多元化产品矩阵，推行"1+6"多品类战略，在巩固能量饮料核心优势的同时 推动东鹏"补水啦"等新品类快速成长，产品结构持续优化，第二增长曲线成效显著。 目前，东鹏饮料已构建覆盖全国近100%地级市的立体化销售网络，拥有3200余家经销商及430万家有效 活跃终端网点，触达不重复终端消费者超2.5亿。通过渠道精细化管理，确保产品高效触达全国市场， 这一广覆盖、深渗透的渠道体系，既助力产品动销与市场扩张，更成为企业抵御行业波动的核心竞争优 势。 此次港股上市是东鹏饮料全球化战略的重要起点。作为企业出海的关键举措，港股上市将为其国际化拓 展提供强大助力。目前东鹏饮料的产品已出口超30个国家和地区，印尼、越南等海外子公司落地运营， 海外产能与渠道布局同步推进；本次募集资金也将投向产能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the consumer sector, with the CSI major consumer index rising by 1.00% and key stocks like Haida Group and Yanjing Beer showing significant gains [1] - Dongpeng Beverage officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 3, 2026, with an issue price of HKD 248 per share, and announced a joint venture with Indonesia's Sanlin Group to establish a vitamin functional beverage company with a total investment of USD 300 million [1] - Guizhou Moutai enhanced its connection with end consumers through the iMoutai platform, achieving over 1.43 million orders for Feitian Moutai in January, with an estimated supply of around 2,000 tons, leading to a year-on-year sales growth of over 30% before the festival [1] Group 2 - Haitong International reported that in January 2026, sectors such as condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining maintained positive growth, while high-end liquor and dairy products continued to experience contraction [1] - The cost index for dairy products and soft drinks has significantly decreased, and the net inflow of funds into the essential consumer sector through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached CNY 61.73 billion in January, increasing the sector's market capitalization ratio to 5.82%, supporting valuation recovery [1] - The current historical PE ratio for A-share food and beverage is only at 17%, while the PE ratio for H-share essential consumer stocks is at 35%, both indicating relatively low levels, combined with institutional allocation ratios at near historical lows, highlighting the sector's cost-effectiveness [1][2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI major consumer index account for 67.37%, with Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili among the leading companies [2] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI major consumer index, which encompasses A-share essential consumer leaders across various categories, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the weight [2] Group 4 - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

值得注意的是，据第一财经报道，公司与印尼华商三林集团签署战略合作协议，东鹏饮料将投资不超过 2亿美元，双方合资成立印度尼西亚东鹏维生素功能饮料公司，本次合作预计总投资3亿美元、分6期完 成出资，未来5年内合作具备排他性。太平洋食饮分析师在相关研报中提到，根据东南亚各国能量饮料 行业规模及格局测算，东鹏饮料出海东南亚中长期实现50亿收入可期。 消息面上，东鹏饮料2月3日在港交所挂牌上市交易。广发证券指出，港股基石投资人多为世界知名投资 机构，如卡塔尔投资局、新加坡主权基金淡马锡、贝莱德、瑞银环球资管、摩根大通资管、富达等，彰 显资本市场对公司优质基本面的高度认可。 东鹏饮料（605499）(09980)上市次日涨超5%，盘中高见265港元，总市值逼近1500亿港元。截至发稿， 涨4.85%，报264港元，成交额2.86亿港元。 ...

值得注意的是，据第一财经报道，公司与印尼华商三林集团签署战略合作协议，东鹏饮料将投资不超过 2亿美元，双方合资成立印度尼西亚东鹏维生素功能饮料公司，本次合作预计总投资3亿美元、分6期完 成出资，未来5年内合作具备排他性。太平洋食饮分析师在相关研报中提到，根据东南亚各国能量饮料 行业规模及格局测算，东鹏饮料出海东南亚中长期实现50亿收入可期。 智通财经APP获悉，东鹏饮料(09980)上市次日涨超5%，盘中高见265港元，总市值逼近1500亿港元。截 至发稿，涨4.85%，报264港元，成交额2.86亿港元。 消息面上，东鹏饮料2月3日在港交所挂牌上市交易。广发证券指出，港股基石投资人多为世界知名投资 机构，如卡塔尔投资局、新加坡主权基金淡马锡、贝莱德、瑞银环球资管、摩根大通资管、富达等，彰 显资本市场对公司优质基本面的高度认可。 ...

Summary of Eastroc Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Eastroc Beverage - **Stock Tickers**: 9980.HK / 605499.SS - **Industry**: Beverage Industry, specifically focusing on functional and energy beverages Key Points Coverage Initiation and Target Price - Coverage on Eastroc's H-shares initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$408.8, aligning with the target price for its A-shares [1] - Anticipation of no persistent valuation discount between H-shares and A-shares due to limited high-quality beverage companies in the HK market [1] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted net profit (NP) growth of 27% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, marking the fastest growth within the China consumer staples sector [1] - Expected sales revenue for 2023 at Rmb11,263 million, increasing to Rmb15,839 million in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 32% [42] Market Position and Share - Eastroc holds the No.1 market share in China's energy beverage market, increasing from 5.3% in 2015 to 43.7% in 2024 [2] - Sales from non-Guangdong markets rose from 61% in 2022 to 76% in the first half of 2025, indicating successful nationwide expansion [2] Product Expansion and Sales Growth - Expansion into the sports beverage category resulted in sales growth of 2.8x year-over-year in 2024 and 2.1x in the first half of 2025 [2] - Contribution from sports and other beverages increased from 4% and 5% in 2023 to 14% and 8% in the first half of 2025, respectively [2] Digitalization and Operational Strategy - Strong digital infrastructure and partnerships with over 3,000 distributors enhance targeted marketing and operational efficiency [3] - Eastroc's strategy focuses on stable pricing and fair returns across the value chain, contrasting with competitors that rely on aggressive price hikes [3] Use of Proceeds from Hong Kong Offering - Planned allocation of proceeds includes: - 36% for enhancing production capacity and supply chain upgrades - 15% for brand building and consumer engagement - 11% for nationwide expansion and channel network refinement - 12% for overseas business expansion and potential acquisitions - 10% for advancing digitalization capabilities - 6% for product development and portfolio expansion - 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [40] Financial Metrics and Performance - Gross profit margin (GPM) projected to be 43.1% in 2023, increasing to 45.7% by 2026 [42] - Net profit margin (NPM) expected to rise from 18.1% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027 [42] - Significant year-over-year growth in net profit forecasted, with a 42% increase in 2023 and a 63% increase in 2024 [42] Competitive Landscape - Eastroc is positioned as a top buy in the China consumer sector, alongside Nongfu Spring and UPC, while Tingyi is rated as a sell [1] Additional Insights - The beverage market in China is projected to grow significantly, with functional beverages expected to reach a market size of Rmb281 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2024 to 2029 [10] - The competitive landscape shows Eastroc's strong branding and operational capabilities as key factors in maintaining its market leadership [2][3] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Eastroc Beverage's market position, financial forecasts, strategic initiatives, and competitive landscape.

分析师 1: 各位领导好，欢迎参加我们今天财通时影这边一月能量饮料渠道更新交流会，我是主持人 马永仪。首先想向我们这个能量饮料专家这边请教一下，目前一月份东鹏整体的包括说是 分品类的出货的一个数据是怎么样的？就是增速这些。 能量饮料专家: 首先各位老师下午好，感谢各位老师对我们公司的一个大力支持，我说话能够听得到吗？ 我说话能听到吗？ 分析师 1: 可以的，可以听到。 能量饮料专家: 各位老师，下午好。首先一月份整体来说相对还是完成的比较不错。因为整体的一月份我 们的一个目标绝对值我们的一个绝对值的一个目标是 21 亿个亿，21 亿的一个目标目标那 个增速是 30 百分 35.8%。一月份哪个目标？那最终我们一月份实际上的一个大城市，实 际上我们两个营收达成是 21.93，同比那个分数是 41.8，超出了我们的一个目标绝对值增 速超出了我们的一个目标增速是接近超出了接近五个点的一个增速。然后绝对值是接近一 个亿，多出来接近一个亿，这个是一月份整体。 那分品类，第一我第一我们的一个能量饮料，12，我们那边要一月份能量饮料，一月份总 体的一个营收是 16.2 亿的一个营收，同比的增速是 22.85%。其中我们的一 ...

Group 1: Canned Food Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released draft recommendations for national standards for canned food to enhance industry standards and applicability [3] - The canned food industry in China is diverse but lacks innovation, particularly in attracting younger consumers, with Fujian province accounting for 36% of national production [3][4] - The industry is upgrading through the development of self-heating foods, high-end products like bird's nest canned food, and customized dining products [3][4] Group 2: New Beverage Trends - The sugar water shop has become a new franchise trend, with brands like Mai Ji Milk and Zhao Ji Chuan Cheng rapidly expanding, but facing challenges such as high costs and low-frequency consumption [5] - The Chinese herbal health water market is experiencing a sales surge due to hot weather, with products like red bean and coix seed water gaining popularity, potentially exceeding a market size of 10 billion yuan [6] - The beverage market is accelerating its health trend, with low-sugar and no-sugar products becoming standard, while traditional giants face declining sales [7] Group 3: Functional and Innovative Products - Vitamin drinks are gaining popularity among young consumers for their health benefits, with sales of Nongfu Spring's water-soluble C100 increasing by 34% year-on-year [9] - The rise of banana-flavored drinks from major brands reflects a growing market potential, leveraging high national recognition and health trends [10] - The global nutrition and health industry is set for a peak in raw material innovation and technological iteration by 2025, with a focus on standardized and stable ingredients [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategies - The "medicinal food" trend is becoming a significant market, with a projected scale of 370 billion yuan, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12] - The rise of Chinese herbal health water reflects a shift in consumer behavior towards health-conscious products, but the industry faces challenges like exaggerated claims and quality control [14] - The dairy industry is shifting focus from consumer markets to B2B markets, driven by the growth of new consumption formats like tea and coffee [15] Group 5: Brand Developments and Challenges - The beverage brand Commune is preparing for an IPO, aiming to expand its presence while facing challenges like declining same-store sales and rising costs [24] - The acquisition of the beverage brand Dayao by KKR marks a shift towards capitalizing on efficiency over emotional branding, as the brand faces challenges in national expansion [25] - Dongpeng's coffee brand has achieved a market share of 14%, positioning itself among the top three in the ready-to-drink coffee market through a focus on quality and targeted marketing [26]