Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable recovery in demand, with oil prices expected to remain in a range of $55-70 per barrel due to OPEC+ production delays and improved global economic conditions [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in spandex prices, an ongoing improvement in titanium dioxide supply and demand, and an anticipated acceleration in dye supply clearance [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export chains, with specific company recommendations provided [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Oil: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - Spandex: The overall operating rate in the spandex industry has increased from 79% to 87%, with prices rising by 1,000 CNY per ton as of January 20, 2026 [4][5]. - Titanium Dioxide: The closure of production facilities by major companies is expected to improve profitability, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in this sector [4][5]. - Dyes: The price of core intermediates for disperse dyes has increased by over 50%, indicating a potential industry clearance [4][5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4][20]. - Key materials for semiconductor and panel manufacturing are emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [4][5]. - The report also notes the importance of focusing on companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in critical materials [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出6402.23万元，其中，特大单净流出838.21万元，大单资金净流 出5564.01万元。近5日主力资金净流入781.89万元。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（1月22日）两融余额为3.32亿元，其中，融资余额为3.15亿元，融券余额 为1765.66万元。近5日融资余额合计增加8642.64万元，增幅为37.89%，融券余额合计增加679.03万元， 增幅62.49%。（数据宝） 华峰化学今日下跌6.37%，全天换手率1.93%，成交额12.27亿元，振幅11.13%。龙虎榜数据显示，机构 净卖出2926.25万元，深股通净买入7262.34万元，营业部席位合计净卖出8898.25万元。 深交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日跌幅偏离值达-7.57%上榜，机构专用席位净卖出2926.25万元，深 股通净买入7262.34万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交4.89亿元，其中，买入成交额为2.22亿 元，卖出成交额为2.67亿元，合计净卖出4562.15万元。 具体来看，今日上榜的营业部中，共有6家机构专用席位现身，即买二、买三、买四、买五、卖三、卖 ...

Market Overview - The chemical fiber sector experienced a decline of 0.66% on January 23, with Huafeng Chemical leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical fiber sector included: - Anhui Wuhua High-tech (Code: 600063) with a closing price of 7.28, up 5.51% and a trading volume of 1.2145 million shares, totaling 866 million yuan [1] - Taihe New Materials (Code: 002254) closed at 13.82, up 4.70% with a trading volume of 444,100 shares, totaling 611 million yuan [1] - Jilin Carbon Valley (Code: 920077) closed at 19.41, up 4.35% with a trading volume of 216,000 shares, totaling 417 million yuan [1] - Conversely, significant decliners included: - Huafeng Chemical (Code: 002064) closed at 12.78, down 6.37% with a trading volume of 955,200 shares, totaling 1.227 billion yuan [2] - Huisheng New Materials (Code: 301057) closed at 38.21, down 3.61% with a trading volume of 32,600 shares, totaling 125 million yuan [2] - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (Code: 000949) closed at 7.25, down 3.33% with a trading volume of 1.3161 million shares, totaling 961 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The chemical fiber sector saw a net outflow of 114 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 146 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks showed: - Jilin Chemical Fiber (Code: 000420) had a net inflow of 51.4981 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhongfu Shenying (Code: 688295) had a net inflow of 40.0280 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Taihe New Materials (Code: 002254) had a net inflow of 34.4442 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Performance - The chemical fiber sector increased by 1.13% on January 22, with Hengshen New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] Stock Highlights - Hengshen New Materials (000782) closed at 5.86, up 5.21% with a trading volume of 321,200 shares and a turnover of 187 million yuan [1] - Youcai Resources (002998) closed at 8.98, up 3.94% with a trading volume of 294,200 shares and a turnover of 263 million yuan [1] - Jilin Qigu (920077) closed at 18.60, up 3.05% with a trading volume of 144,100 shares and a turnover of 267 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The chemical fiber sector experienced a net outflow of 2.64 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 7.79 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant fund flows included Huafeng Chemical (002064) with a net inflow of 43.74 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jilin Chemical Fiber (000420) had a net inflow of 37.21 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]

Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a rise of 2.34% on January 20, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Key stocks in the chemical fiber sector showed significant price increases, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber rising by 10.03% to a closing price of 7.46 [1] Group 2 - The chemical fiber sector saw a net inflow of 213 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 222 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber had notable net inflows from main funds, with Huafeng Chemical receiving 85.65 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a significant outflow from several stocks, including Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, which had a net outflow of 39.03 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) is experiencing significant capital inflow and positive market performance, driven by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) recorded a transaction volume of 6.5777 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 0.46% [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 20 million shares within the first half hour of trading, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF's latest scale and share count have reached new highs since its inception, with a total net inflow of 312 million yuan over the past 14 days [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on various sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including chemical raw materials and manufacturing [2]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, supported by macroeconomic factors such as an unexpected rise in PMI and a stronger yuan, which reduces import costs [2]. - The industry is witnessing a reduction in capital expenditure, with a shift towards "de-involution" strategies that help mitigate risks of oversupply [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that 44.1% of 170 tracked chemical products have seen price increases, with notable rises in lithium carbonate, ABS, and epoxy propane [3]. - The dual forces of supply-side contraction and demand-side growth, driven by national policies and external economic conditions, are expected to support a cyclical recovery in the chemical industry [3].

Group 1 - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative, while the chemical sector showed strong performance, with Haohua Technology rising over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical and Luxi Chemical up over 6%, and several other companies increasing by more than 5% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, opened low but surged by 2.8% by midday, reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - Analysts indicate that capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to decline in 2024, and with the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, supply is likely to contract [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) closely tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, which has a core advantage of comprehensive coverage and balanced structure [2] - The index selects large-scale, liquid companies from sub-industries such as chemical products, including both traditional leading enterprises and representatives from high-growth areas like new energy materials and fine chemicals [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 2.73% as of the latest update [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Haohua Technology, which reached the daily limit, and Junzheng Group, which surged over 9%, along with other notable gains from companies like Luxi Chemical and Huafeng Chemical [1][2] - Since 2025, the Chemical ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 47.53%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.38%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.25%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has seen negative growth in capital expenditure since 2024, but the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities are expected to lead to a contraction in supply [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is anticipated to drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [4] - A potential turning point for the chemical industry is expected in 2026, with a shift from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double Play" [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [5] - The ETF also includes exposure to various sub-sectors such as phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and others, providing a comprehensive investment approach within the chemical sector [5] - The fund does not charge a sales service fee, with specific subscription and redemption fee structures outlined for investors [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the spandex industry is currently at a historical low in terms of price and demand, but with industry restructuring, there is potential for price recovery and demand growth in the future [1] Supply Side - The spandex industry is in the late stage of capacity expansion, with domestic production capacity increasing from 593,900 tons in 2015 to an expected 1,420,000 tons by January 2026, led by Huafeng Chemical with 475,000 tons [2] - Currently, only the first phase of the Xinxiang Chemical Fiber's 100,000-ton project, which is 50,000 tons, is under construction and is expected to be operational by 2027 [2] - Since 2019, over 200,000 tons of capacity from small enterprises have been shut down, leading to a reduction in the share of capacity below 50,000 tons from 47% in 2015 to 16% in 2025, indicating a trend towards concentration of supply among leading companies [2] - The industry has faced negative gross margins since May 2023, making it difficult for unprofitable companies to sustain operations, which may lead to further exits from the market [2] Demand Side - Spandex is primarily used in clothing to provide elasticity, with applications in casual wear, jeans, underwear, fitness apparel, swimwear, and socks [3] - The demand for spandex is expected to continue growing due to trends in sports and tight-fitting clothing, with apparent consumption increasing from 510,000 tons in 2017 to an estimated 1,027,000 tons by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 10.51% [3] - The combination of high elasticity and durability of spandex enhances the core performance of garments, contributing to its increasing penetration in downstream markets [3] Related Companies - Key companies in the spandex industry include Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ), Taihe New Materials (002254.SZ), and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949.SZ) [4]