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春季行情正当时!供给密集扰动下,碳酸锂剑指20万元大关?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-27 09:10
Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has triggered a significant market reaction, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 11% to exceed 160,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new cycle in the lithium market driven by supply disruptions and surging demand from energy storage batteries [1][2][3]. Supply Side - The ban from Zimbabwe is expected to have a short-term impact, with current compliant export capacity limited to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, increasing to 60,000 tons in 2027 [3][5]. - The global lithium supply is projected to be approximately 202,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with demand expected to reach around 201.7 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [22]. - The recovery of lithium production in Australia is anticipated to take at least a quarter, with many projects still in the planning stages, which limits immediate supply response to rising prices [8][12]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is increasingly driven by energy storage, with global shipments of storage batteries expected to reach 900 GWh in 2026, translating to a demand for approximately 540,000 tons of LCE, a 50% year-on-year increase [16][18]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in demand for power batteries due to policy changes, the overall demand for lithium is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with projections of 1.9 million electric vehicles sold in China, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16][18]. Pricing Dynamics - The current low inventory levels, with social stocks of lithium carbonate dropping to around 10,300 tons, have significantly amplified price elasticity, leading to a market that is trading on "shortage driven by restocking" rather than waiting for supply-demand equilibrium [18][24]. - The pricing logic in the lithium market is shifting from "current period looseness" to "future period tightness," as financial attributes of lithium are becoming more pronounced, with market participants pricing in future scarcity [25][26]. Geopolitical Factors - The emergence of a "Lithium OPEC" in South America, involving Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, aims to regain pricing power over lithium resources, which could further complicate supply dynamics [6][7]. - Geopolitical and policy variables, such as nationalization efforts in Chile and Mexico's strategic designation of lithium, are expected to layer additional pricing options that could influence market dynamics over time [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term, supported by low inventory, concentrated supply disruptions, and the upcoming demand peak [26]. - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with differing views on whether prices above 200,000 yuan/ton will be sustainable or if they represent a temporary window before supply increases catch up [26].
未知机构:GSCHINA午市在连续两日上涨后A股早盘出现回调-20260227
未知机构· 2026-02-27 02:15
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after two consecutive days of gains, indicating market volatility in the Chinese stock market [1] - The AI industry chain saw significant strength driven by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, leading to notable increases in core stocks [2][3] Key Companies and Performance - **PCB Sector**: - Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ) hit the daily limit up - Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) increased by 9.23% [2][3] - **Lithium Mining**: - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) rose by 2.61% - Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) increased by 4.79% - Companies with asset exposure in Zimbabwe, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) and Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ), faced declines of 5.2% and 3.33% respectively [3] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)**: - Experienced a nearly 5% drop due to concerns over lithium raw material cost pressures [3] Sector Performance - The real estate sector saw a pullback following a rise due to relaxed home purchase policies in Shanghai [4] - The artificial intelligence data center sector showed strong performance due to expectations of a recovery in computing power leasing business [5] Investment Recommendations - A preference for selling in the consumer and insurance sectors, while maintaining a buy stance on consumer electronics, electrical equipment, and printed circuit boards [5] - The battery sector presents two viewpoints, but the overall sentiment leans towards buying [6]
盛新锂能集团股份有限公司2026年第二次(临时)股东会决议公告
本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 重要提示: 1、本次股东会未出现否决提案的情形。 2、本次股东会不涉及变更以往股东会已通过决议的情形。 一、会议召开的情况 (一)会议召集人:公司第八届董事会 (二)会议召开时间: 1、现场会议时间:2026年2月26日(周四)下午14:30开始 2、网络投票时间:2026年2月26日(周四) (五)会议主持人:董事长周祎先生 (六)会议的召集、召开与表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》及《公司章程》等有关规定。 二、会议出席的情况 (一)出席的总体情况 参加本次股东会的股东及股东代理人965名,代表有表决权的股份305,475,091股,占股权登记日公司有 表决权股份总数的34.9636%。其中,参加本次股东会表决的中小投资者(中小投资者指除单独或合计 持有上市公司5%以上股份的股东、公司董事、高级管理人员以外的其他股东)958名,代表有表决权的 股份76,940,609股,占股权登记日公司有表决权股份总数的8.8063%。 (二)现场会议出席情况 出席现场会议的股东及股东代理人7名,代表有表决权的股份181, ...
津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口,13家锂矿公司或将受益,其中7家年报预增
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-26 17:37
Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].
盛新锂能(002240) - 2026年第二次(临时)股东会决议公告
2026-02-26 10:00
证券代码:002240 证券简称:盛新锂能 公告编号:2026-014 盛新锂能集团股份有限公司 2026年第二次(临时)股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要提示: 1、本次股东会未出现否决提案的情形。 2、本次股东会不涉及变更以往股东会已通过决议的情形。 一、会议召开的情况 (五)会议主持人:董事长周祎先生 (六)会议的召集、召开与表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》及《公 司章程》等有关规定。 二、会议出席的情况 (一)出席的总体情况 (一)会议召集人:公司第八届董事会 (二)会议召开时间: 1、现场会议时间:2026 年 2 月 26 日(周四)下午 14:30 开始 2、网络投票时间:2026 年 2 月 26 日(周四) 其中,通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为:2026年2 月26日上午9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30,下午13:00-15:00;通过深圳证券交易所 互联网投票系统投票的具体时间为:2026年2月26日上午9:15至下午15:00期间的 任意时间。 (三)现场会议召开地点:四川 ...
盛新锂能(002240) - 北京市万商天勤律师事务所关于盛新锂能集团股份有限公司二〇二六年第二次(临时)股东会的法律意见书
2026-02-26 10:00
北京市万商天勤律师事务所 关于盛新锂能集团股份有限公司 二〇二六年第二次(临时)股东会的法律意见书 致:盛新锂能集团股份有限公司 根据《中华人民共和国证券法》(下称"《证券法》")、《中华人民共和国 公司法》(下称"《公司法》")和《上市公司股东会规则》(下称"《规则》") 等相关法律、法规及中国证券监督管理委员会颁布的有关规定和《盛新锂能集团股 份有限公司章程》(下称"《公司章程》")的规定,北京市万商天勤律师事务所(下 称"本所")接受盛新锂能集团股份有限公司(下称"公司")的委托,指派律师 参加公司二〇二六年第二次(临时)股东会(下称"本次股东会"),并出具法律 意见。 为出具本法律意见书,本所律师对本次股东会所涉及的有关事项进行了审查, 查阅了本所律师认为出具本法律意见书所必须查阅的文件。本所律师得到公司如 下保证,即其已提供了本所律师为出具本法律意见书所必需的材料,所提供的原 始材料、副本及复印件等材料均符合真实、准确、完整的要求,有关副本、复印 件等材料与原始材料一致。 在本法律意见书中,本所律师仅对本次股东会的召集、召开程序、出席会议人 员资格、召集人资格及会议表决程序、表决结果是否符合《公司法 ...
津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口,碳酸锂期货价一度逼近19万元关口
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-26 09:16
图片来 源:图虫创意 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿和原矿出口。 2月25日,新华财经披露了上述消息,此次暂停令还包括了目前所有在途的矿产。 受该消息影响,2月26日,碳酸锂期货主力合约一度大涨12%,触及18.7万元/吨。截至当日收盘,上涨 3.47%,报17.37万元/吨。 现货方面,上海钢联最新数据显示,2月26日,电池级碳酸锂早盘均价报17.31万元/吨,较前一工作日 上涨8650元。 根据修订后的其他矿产出口要求,只有持有有效采矿权和已获批选矿厂的矿业公司才被授权出口。代理 商和第三方贸易商无权代表采矿权持有人出口矿产。 出口许可证申请必须包括相关省级矿业办公室出具的建议书,详细说明选矿能力和合规状况,以及每批 货物的矿物成分申报。 津巴布韦政府表示,此举旨在加强矿产问责制,促进选矿增值,并最大限度地提高津巴布韦境内的价值 留存。 津巴布韦在2月17日就曾宣布,为遏制矿物出口中的不当行为和矿物流失,决定调整所有矿物及选矿产 成品的出口流程和框架,并建立有效框架。 在此期间,由于相关政府部门调整其流程,采矿业在出口许可证的处理和签发方面可能遇到暂时性延 误。为此,所有申请新出口许可证和续签现有出口许可证者,应至少 ...
津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口影响几何?多家上市公司发声
华友钴业相关负责人表示,此次津巴布韦的"出口禁令"主要是对违规出口的监管,公司的采矿证是当地 矿业部颁发的,目前尚不确定具体影响程度。 雅化集团相关负责人表示:"公司已提前把津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来。最近一段时间,当 地'暂停出口'对公司的生产端不会造成影响。" 该负责人进一步表示:"根据文件看,未在当地取得采矿证及选矿资质的贸易商与代理商,已不具备出 口资质。但雅化集团可以继续申请出口,只需要在出口许可流程上补充相关资料,公司已着手推进相关 工作。" 2月26日,碳酸锂期货主力合约一度涨超11%。同时,A股锂矿板块高开。消息面上,当地时间2月25 日,津巴布韦矿业部发文称,已暂停所有锂原矿和锂精矿的出口,即刻生效。此次暂停出口包括所有目 前正在运输途中的矿产,暂无明确恢复出口的时间表。 中国证券报记者梳理获悉,上市公司盛新锂能、华友钴业、中矿资源、天华新能、雅化集团均在津巴布 韦有锂矿等布局。 作为新兴的锂资源大国,津巴布韦"出口禁令"对于中国锂的供应及价格走势有何影响?中国证券报记者 进行了多方采访。 上市公司回应 此次津巴布韦的新政策对于在当地布局的A股上市公司有哪些影响? 2月26日,中矿资源 ...
收评:三大股指涨跌不一 算力芯片概念爆发
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-26 07:15
专题:A股节后迎高胜率窗口 新一轮上行可期 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2.电网设备 北京科锐、神马股份、杭电股份等多股涨停。 截至收盘,沪指报4146.63点,跌0.01%;深证成指报14503.79点,涨0.19%;创指报3344.98点,跌 0.29%。 盘面上,元件、CPO、铜缆高速连接板块涨幅居前;影视院线、保险、房地产板块跌幅居前。 热点板块: 1.算力芯片 寒武纪涨近10%,聚飞光电、杰普特20cm涨停,中天科技、烽火通信等多股涨停。 消息面上,国产算力芯片龙头海光信息公告,预计一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润6.2亿元— 7.2亿元,同比增长22.56%—42.32%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 2月26日消息,市场全天探底回升,三大股指涨跌不一。板块方面,算力芯片股午后拉升,明阳电路、 聚飞光电、杰普特20cm涨停;电网设备板块震荡走强,北京科锐、神马股份、杭电股份等多股涨停; 商业航天概念持续走高,抚顺特钢涨停;下跌方面,影视院线板块持续调整,博纳影业领跌;房地产板 块表现低迷,华联控股领跌;创新药板 ...
国信证券:供需趋紧+低库存 重视锂业春季行情
智通财经网· 2026-02-26 06:38
供给:锂价反弹刺激供给,但短期增量有限 智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,动力电池和储能电池双驱动,预计2026年全球锂需求有望达 到约200万吨LCE。另国内锂电池出口退税下调,短期或推动锂电抢出口,需求前置下或将带动锂行业 供需边际趋紧。经历过连续几个月的去库存之后,目前国内锂盐库存周期仅不足一个月时间,在供需如 此紧张的情况下,库存矛盾将愈加凸显。该行看好锂价在近期进一步上行,预计短期有望涨至20万元/ 吨以上。 国信证券主要观点如下: 相关标的:赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、中矿资源、永兴材料、华友钴业、盛新锂能、雅化集团、 大中矿业、国城矿业 风险提示:锂终端需求不及预期;全球锂资源开发速度超预期。 动力电池和储能电池双驱动,预计2026年全球锂需求有望达到约200万吨LCE。储能电池需求自2025年 下半年开始显著超预期,年初也保持旺盛的需求状态,预计全年出货量可以达到900Gwh左右,同比增 速近50%;动力电池需求年初遇冷,主要是受补贴退坡和淡季消费等因素影响,预计从3月份开始有望迅 速回暖,全年仍有望实现20%左右增长。另外,国内锂电池出口退税下调,自2026年4月1日至12月31日 ...