国信证券（002736）近日发布机械行业2026年2月投资策略：1月机械行业（申万分类）指数上涨 6.32%，跑赢沪深300指数4.66个pct，机械行业TTM市盈率/市净率约为41.85/3.38倍，环比提升。1月钢/ 铜/铝价格指数环比变动-0.74%/+6.92%/+4.78%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 1月行情回顾&重要数据跟踪：1月机械行业（申万分类）指数上涨6.32%，跑赢沪深300指数4.66个pct， 机械行业TTM市盈率/市净率约为41.85/3.38倍，环比提升。1月钢/铜/铝价格指数环比变 动-0.74%/+6.92%/+4.78%。 PMI（国家统计局1月31日数据）：1月制造业PMI指数49.30%，环比下降0.8个百分点，高技术制造业持 续领跑。同期高技术制造业保持扩张态势，高技术制造业PMI为52.00%，持续位于临界点以上，相关行 业保持稳定增长。 工程机械（中国工程机械工业协会2月9日数据）：2026年1月销售各类挖掘机18708台，同比增长 49.5%。其中：国内销量8723台（含电动挖掘机24台），同比增长61.4%；出口量9985台（含电动挖掘 机11台），同比 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：南方日报 作者：张艳 编者按 2月24日，南方日报发布了《国信证券：深耕南粤沃土 打造一流投行》报道。以下为全文内容。 春潮涌动、奋楫争先。全省高质量发展大会吹响了南粤大地新一年攻坚奋进的集结号。"十四五"以来， 作为扎根大湾区的本土券商，国信证券始终与广东发展同频共振、同向发力，坚守金融报国、金融为民 初心，以打造世界一流综合型投资银行为目标，强化功能性定位，将金融"活水"精准滴灌广东实体经济 沃土，在服务实体经济、"双区"建设、科技创新等方面交出亮眼答卷，为广东在中国式现代化建设中走 在前列注入强劲金融动能。 做强产业投行 为实体经济发展融资融智 在惠州，胜宏科技的生产车间里机器轰鸣、产销两旺，高端PCB产品源源不断走向全球市场。通过多轮 股权融资与资本运作，胜宏科技（惠州）股份有限公司持续夯实AI算力基础设施领域布局，跻身全球 PCB企业第六位，成为AI驱动下高端智造的代表性企业，为广东先进制造业发展、抢占人工智能产业制 高点筑牢坚实产业根基。 2025年，胜宏科技成功完成19亿元定增项目，作为独家保荐机构和联席主承销商，国 ...

Group 1 - The fund being launched is the Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry Thematic Exchange-Traded Open-End Index Fund, registered with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The fund is classified as an equity fund and operates as an exchange-traded fund [1][12] - The initial fundraising target is capped at 2 billion RMB, excluding interest and subscription fees, using a "last day proportion confirmation" method for scale control [1][13][14] Group 2 - The subscription period for the fund is from March 2, 2026, to March 13, 2026, with both online and offline cash subscription options available [1][16] - Investors must have a Shanghai Securities Account to subscribe, and the minimum subscription amount is 1,000 shares or its multiples [2][22] - Subscription fees are capped at 0.3%, and the fund management company will not charge fees for offline subscriptions [17][18] Group 3 - The fund will be managed by Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd., with China Merchants Bank as the custodian [1][39] - The fund's performance will closely track the underlying index, which is the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry Thematic Index [6] - The fund will invest in stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and may also include financial derivatives such as stock index futures and options [7][8]

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，1月28日，天立国际控股(01773)召开2026年股东周年大会暨AI专题反向路 演活动，并在线上进行公开直播。会上，公司通过股东大会、管理层交流、AI产品体验、AI示范校参观等多环节， 向市场公开、全面展示集团学历学校招生情况，以及"AI+教育"领域的深度布局、领先实践与未来蓝图。同日，公司 发布意向回购公告。董事会决定在公告日期至下届股东周年大会结束（或股东撤销/更改购回授权），期间，根据市 况及购回授权，动用最高2亿港元在公开市场不时购回股份；每股购回价不高于紧接每次购回前五个交易日平均收市 价的5%。 国信证券主要观点如下： 一、民办学历学校业务：主动调整招生策略，招生短期利空出清 公司战略性积极扩招转校生，预计转校生补充后，26财年公司全年服务学生人数同比望提升至约14%。据公司招生 负责人介绍，截至2026年1月25日，集团已完成转校生招生3603人，较2025年11月新招约2600人，该行预计本财年内 将持续推进转校生计划。该行预计并测算，在转校生补充下，2026财年公司全年服务学生人数有望达14.8万人，同比 增长约14%，其中服务高中生人数有望达6.3 ...

智能床垫：大基数+低渗透率的潜力品类 家用看护设备：AI助力下功能升级，养老生态的重要入口 跌倒是国内65岁以上老人意外伤害的首发因素，家庭环境的即时监测和预警的需求始终存在。随着AI 视觉能力和传感能力的提升，摄像头/雷达的家庭环境识别能力持续提升，老人跌倒识别-即时向家属发 出警报-社区医院对接这一链条也逐步被打通。预计2030年独居看护类设备的稳态销量预计达到1400万 台，销量复合增速预计达到16%，同时更高的均价也有望进一步扩大行业规模。其中的代表性企业为行 业龙头萤石网络，其核心产品"萤石养老智能体"通过自身的大模型和开放生态，形成了软硬件一体的、 覆盖生活轨迹、健康数据、安全预警和语音助手四大功能的家居养老看护解决方案。 养老适老机器人：政策持续出台，各细分领域涌现新产品 护理机器人的概念涵盖了从最基础的二便清洁设备、康复设备再到更综合的具身智能机器人。以护理机 器人为例，其面对的不只是国内市场，根据65岁以上老人及失能人群比例测算，预计国内和欧美失能老 人的护理机器人远期市场规模均达到百亿级别。当前行业主要有三类玩家：(1)垂直领域厂商，其对具 体的细分需求有深入了解并对产品进行多代际迭代，代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trend of A-share listed companies implementing cash dividends ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a shift towards a "return-focused" market environment driven by regulatory policies and improved corporate governance [2][6]. Group 1: Cash Dividends Overview - As of February 11, 57 A-share listed companies have implemented cash dividends totaling 409.11 billion yuan since February [2]. - Notable companies such as Changjiang Electric Power and Darentang have announced significant cash dividends, with Changjiang Electric Power distributing over 51 billion yuan [3][4]. - From December 1, 2025, to February 11, 2026, 289 A-share companies have distributed cash dividends amounting to 3,896.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 13% [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The financial and consumer sectors continue to dominate cash dividends, with banks accounting for 8 out of the top 10 companies by total dividend amount [4]. - The total cash dividends from 19 listed banks reached 2,627.34 billion yuan, representing 67% of the total dividends during the specified period [4]. - In the food and beverage sector, 23 listed companies have distributed cash dividends totaling 494.84 billion yuan, with leading firms like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye contributing significantly [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Influence - Recent policies, including the new "National Nine Articles," have emphasized the importance of cash dividends, encouraging companies to enhance dividend stability and predictability [6][7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has advocated for multiple dividends per year and pre-dividend announcements to improve investor returns [6]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are promoting initiatives to enhance cash dividend policies and increase the frequency of cash distributions [7].

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights a positive outlook on the IP and platform segments, particularly focusing on entities with extensive web literature and comic copyright reserves that actively utilize AI technology for IP visualization transformation [1] - The AI animation short drama market is entering a period of explosive growth, with significant increases in production and audience engagement expected by 2025 [1] Group 1: AI Animation Short Dramas - AI animation short dramas utilize AIGC technology to dominate the entire content creation process, significantly lowering production barriers and enabling diverse content forms [1] - By August 2025, platforms have launched a total of 2,902 AI animation micro-dramas, with a rapid increase in monthly releases; the market penetration rate for animation dramas surged from 5% in June to 35% in December, with AIGC animation drama viewership increasing by 181 times throughout the year [1] - The core audience for animation dramas primarily consists of "Generation Z" young adults (ages 24-30), with over 90% being male, contrasting sharply with traditional short drama audiences [1] Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - Despite advancements in AI video generation technology by 2025, the industry faces four core challenges: lack of consistency, violation of physical logic, audio-visual asynchrony, and loss of directorial control [2] - The introduction of Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0 marks a new phase in the industry, enhancing AI's capabilities to provide director-level control and significantly improving content generation efficiency [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Restructuring - Technological advancements are fundamentally transforming the production efficiency and value logic within the AI animation drama industry, drastically reducing costs and production times [3] - The cost of traditional dynamic animation was approximately 2,000-5,000 yuan per minute with a production cycle of 3-5 months, while industrialized AI animation has reduced costs to below 800-1,000 yuan per minute and shortened production cycles to 7-14 days [3] - The application of tools like Seedance 2.0 is lowering the barriers for IP transformation, allowing previously dormant IP assets to be monetized more effectively, shifting valuation models from traditional P/E ratios to cash flow-based assessments [3]

Core Insights - The core conclusion suggests a preference for equities over commodities, bonds, and cash, with an asset allocation of 35% in stocks, 25% in bonds, 25% in commodities, and 15% in cash, indicating the current economic cycle is in a recovery window [2] - AI has enhanced the investment clock by capturing multi-dimensional cycle turning points, showing that the dynamic asset allocation system has significantly outperformed traditional models since 2005, with an average net value increase of 4.48 times [2][23] - Emerging markets are highlighted as a strategic opportunity to reduce reliance on US stocks, with a recommendation to increase their weight to 18% due to their low correlation with developed markets, which can enhance the Sharpe ratio by over 40% [2][48] - The report anticipates a recovery in PPI by mid-2026, driven by supply-side constraints and low capacity utilization in certain industries, suggesting a focus on commodities with strong pricing power [2][61][66] - The pricing logic of US and Japanese bonds is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from absolute safety to a more complex pricing mechanism influenced by fiscal sustainability [2][67][76] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation strategy is to maintain an aggressive stance on equities while using commodities to hedge against inflation, and to keep a neutral position in bonds to manage liquidity fluctuations [2] - The enhanced allocation strategy has shown a higher annualized return of 9.8% compared to traditional models, with a maximum drawdown of -18.3%, indicating better risk management [18] Economic Cycle Analysis - The improved investment clock divides the economic cycle into seven stages, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of asset performance across different phases, particularly emphasizing the transition from liquidity abundance to credit expansion [12][22] - AI models have been employed to automate the identification of economic cycle stages, significantly reducing the need for subjective judgment by analysts [32] Emerging Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are positioned as key players in the current investment landscape, with a focus on sectors supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and earnings expectations, despite challenges from currency fluctuations [49][53] - The report notes that the momentum factor is currently leading in emerging markets, with a strong preference for technology stocks that can deliver performance despite adverse currency conditions [56] Commodity Market Insights - The report predicts that PPI will turn positive in the first half of 2026, with commodity futures prices serving as a leading indicator for industrial price recovery [61] - There is a focus on sectors with low capacity utilization and strong supply constraints, which are expected to drive price increases in the commodity market [66]

国信证券主要观点如下： 1)公司战略性积极扩招转校生补充生源，截至2026年1月25日，集团已完成转校生招生3603人，预计全 年有望达成7000人，带动26财年公司全年服务学生人数同比自8%提升至约14%；AI教育产品效果得到 持续验证，加速转化收入。截至2026年1月26日，公司AI冲刺营覆盖学生已达1934人，全年有望突破 4000人；2026年1月内，公司AI冲刺营新签约两所外部学校，预计公司2026-2028财年AI冲刺营业务分别 有望实现收入0.88亿元/1.54亿元/2.31亿元。 风险提示：招生增速持续下滑；教师流失；政策风险；港股流动性风险等。 事件 2026年1月28日，天立国际控股公司召开2026年股东周年大会暨AI专题反向路演活动，并在线上进行公 开直播。会上，公司通过股东大会、管理层交流、AI产品体验、AI示范校参观等多环节，向市场公 开、全面展示集团学历学校招生情况，以及"AI+教育"领域的深度布局、领先实践与未来蓝图。同日， 公司发布意向回购公告。董事会决定在公告日期至下届股东周年大会结束(或股东撤销/更改购回授权)， 期间，根据市况及购回授权，动用最高2亿港元在公开市场不时购回 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773), citing the ongoing high school population dividend, the company's outstanding educational quality, and continuous share buybacks and shareholder increases to enhance investor confidence [1][2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are set at 3.915 billion, 4.225 billion, and 4.499 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 9.1%, 7.9%, and 6.5% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026-FY2028 are 741 million, 821 million, and 901 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 11.5%, 10.9%, and 9.7% [1] - The latest market capitalization corresponds to a FY2026 PE ratio of 7x [1] Strategic Developments - The company is strategically expanding its enrollment of transfer students, having completed the enrollment of 3,603 transfer students as of January 25, 2026, with an annual target of 7,000 students, which is expected to increase the total number of students served by approximately 14% year-on-year [3] - The effectiveness of AI education products continues to be validated, accelerating revenue conversion, with the AI sprint camp covering 1,934 students as of January 26, 2026, and an expectation to exceed 4,000 students for the year [3] - The company signed two new external schools for the AI sprint camp in January 2026, with projected revenues from this business for FY2026-FY2028 estimated at 88 million, 154 million, and 231 million yuan respectively [3] Share Buyback Announcement - On January 28, 2026, the company announced an intention to repurchase shares, with a maximum of 200 million HKD allocated for buybacks in the open market, with the repurchase price not exceeding 5% of the average closing price over the preceding five trading days [2]