2026年2月28日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 01 锂业弹性表 证券研究报告 锂行业弹性表 （2026年2月版） 行业评级：看好 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的公司为：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、华友钴业、紫金矿业、中矿资源； 预计2025至2027年产量增速较快的为：大中矿业、紫金矿业、盐湖股份、永兴材料、国城矿业； 增量分析： 2 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，措拉矿投产，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）大中矿业：未来几年主要增量为鸡脚山和加达锂矿项目逐步投产增产。 4）盐湖股份：未来几年主要增量为新建4万吨项目投产放量、最新整合五矿盐湖旗下一里坪盐湖。 5）紫金矿业：未来几年增 ...

证券日报网讯2月27日，中矿资源（002738）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，津巴布韦矿业与矿业 发展部关于暂停锂矿出口的声明意在打击走私行为和促进津巴布韦本地化加工。公司所属子公司Bikita 是津巴布韦具备正规资质的企业，且正在积极推进硫酸锂产能布局，相关声明对公司影响有限。目前， 公司正积极与津巴布韦相关部门沟通新的出口申请流程。 ...

（记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：津巴布韦禁令对中矿资源的影响大吗？ 中矿资源（002738.SZ）2月27日在投资者互动平台表示，津巴布韦矿业与矿业发展部关于暂停锂矿出口 的声明意在打击走私行为和促进津巴布韦本地化加工。公司所属子公司Bikita是津巴布韦具备正规资质 的企业，且正在积极推进硫酸锂产能布局，相关声明对公司影响有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has triggered a significant market reaction, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 11% to exceed 160,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new cycle in the lithium market driven by supply disruptions and surging demand from energy storage batteries [1][2][3]. Supply Side - The ban from Zimbabwe is expected to have a short-term impact, with current compliant export capacity limited to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, increasing to 60,000 tons in 2027 [3][5]. - The global lithium supply is projected to be approximately 202,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with demand expected to reach around 201.7 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [22]. - The recovery of lithium production in Australia is anticipated to take at least a quarter, with many projects still in the planning stages, which limits immediate supply response to rising prices [8][12]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is increasingly driven by energy storage, with global shipments of storage batteries expected to reach 900 GWh in 2026, translating to a demand for approximately 540,000 tons of LCE, a 50% year-on-year increase [16][18]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in demand for power batteries due to policy changes, the overall demand for lithium is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with projections of 1.9 million electric vehicles sold in China, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16][18]. Pricing Dynamics - The current low inventory levels, with social stocks of lithium carbonate dropping to around 10,300 tons, have significantly amplified price elasticity, leading to a market that is trading on "shortage driven by restocking" rather than waiting for supply-demand equilibrium [18][24]. - The pricing logic in the lithium market is shifting from "current period looseness" to "future period tightness," as financial attributes of lithium are becoming more pronounced, with market participants pricing in future scarcity [25][26]. Geopolitical Factors - The emergence of a "Lithium OPEC" in South America, involving Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, aims to regain pricing power over lithium resources, which could further complicate supply dynamics [6][7]. - Geopolitical and policy variables, such as nationalization efforts in Chile and Mexico's strategic designation of lithium, are expected to layer additional pricing options that could influence market dynamics over time [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term, supported by low inventory, concentrated supply disruptions, and the upcoming demand peak [26]. - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with differing views on whether prices above 200,000 yuan/ton will be sustainable or if they represent a temporary window before supply increases catch up [26].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after two consecutive days of gains, indicating market volatility in the Chinese stock market [1] - The AI industry chain saw significant strength driven by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, leading to notable increases in core stocks [2][3] Key Companies and Performance - **PCB Sector**: - Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ) hit the daily limit up - Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) increased by 9.23% [2][3] - **Lithium Mining**: - Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) rose by 2.61% - Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) increased by 4.79% - Companies with asset exposure in Zimbabwe, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) and Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ), faced declines of 5.2% and 3.33% respectively [3] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)**: - Experienced a nearly 5% drop due to concerns over lithium raw material cost pressures [3] Sector Performance - The real estate sector saw a pullback following a rise due to relaxed home purchase policies in Shanghai [4] - The artificial intelligence data center sector showed strong performance due to expectations of a recovery in computing power leasing business [5] Investment Recommendations - A preference for selling in the consumer and insurance sectors, while maintaining a buy stance on consumer electronics, electrical equipment, and printed circuit boards [5] - The battery sector presents two viewpoints, but the overall sentiment leans towards buying [6]

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，总持仓小增 2957，市场继续交易津巴布韦锂矿禁令，日内 雅化集团、华友钴业以及中矿资源回应，一度缓解市场对该禁令的担忧，多头有 止盈离场。钢联晚盘现货电碳报价涨 10700 至 176000，澳矿涨 90，锂云母涨 155， 三元持平，铁锂涨 2000-2100，产业链涨价潮持续，本周碳酸锂社库较节前去库 2839 吨至 100093 吨。短期随着供应端炒作 ...

中信建投（601066）期货分析师张维鑫表示，受长假期间国际大宗商品价格上涨影响，碳酸锂期价延续 了春节假期前的上涨趋势。此外，3月份以后，现货市场供需格局或进一步偏紧，该预期也支撑了碳酸 锂价格。 春节假期结束后，碳酸锂市场表现强势。2月26日，碳酸锂期货跳空高开，主力合约LC2605盘中最高触 及187700元/吨，涨幅一度超11%，随后涨幅收窄，当日报收173660元/吨，涨幅为3.47%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期价节后持续走强，是基本面和消息面共振的表现。 据华友钴业相关负责人介绍，此次津巴布韦相关政策主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当地矿 业部颁发的，目前还不能确定具体影响有多大。 雅化集团相关负责人也对记者表示，短期内，该政策对其公司业务会有一定影响，不过公司已经提前把 在津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来了，整体影响相对有限。值得关注的是，雅化集团可以继续申请 出口，但需要按照出口许可流程补充相关资料，公司已经着手推进。 "从目前主流企业的反馈看，津巴布韦相关政策影响偏短期，且部分企业已有库存矿规划，预计整体影 响有限。"林嘉旎表示，津巴布韦相关政策主要是为了打击走私及促进锂资源的本土加工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

Group 1 - Huang Yanming, the director of Dongfang Securities Research Institute, stated that the next investment focus in A-shares will be on mid-cap blue chips, moving away from the previous high-growth tech and high-dividend strategies [1] - The investment focus will be on three main areas: globally priced cyclical goods such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and global shipping; manufacturing sectors related to technology and national strength enhancement, including military industry, robotics, and new energy; and technology sectors related to large model performance realization [1] Group 2 - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt has surged to a record $348 trillion, increasing by nearly $29 trillion, marking the fastest growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Government debt in countries like the United States and the Eurozone exceeds $10 trillion [2] Group 3 - Several lithium mining companies expect Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports to resume within one month after a temporary suspension [3] - Companies like Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group are preparing to submit supplementary materials for export applications, indicating that the ban is expected to be lifted soon [3] Group 4 - Overseas tech companies are increasingly turning to loans backed by chips, particularly GPUs, to fund their substantial AI investments, with Moody's beginning to rate GPU-backed debt [4] - NAND flash memory prices are rising due to ongoing shortages, prompting major manufacturers like Phison to require advance payments from customers [4] Group 5 - The Chinese smartphone industry is set to experience a comprehensive price increase starting in March 2026, with new models expected to rise by at least 1,000 yuan [5] - Major brands such as OPPO, OnePlus, Vivo, iQOO, Xiaomi, and Honor are likely to raise prices for older models as well, marking a historic trend of simultaneous price hikes across all categories and brands [5] Group 6 - CCD cameras, once common, have seen a resurgence in popularity, with prices for certain models skyrocketing in the second-hand market [6] - Young consumers are driving this trend, primarily for the aesthetic quality of the images produced by these cameras [6] Group 7 - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [7] - The net profit attributable to Baidu was 1.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 5% [7] Group 8 - ByteDance's valuation is reportedly around $550 billion, as investment firm General Atlantic is selling part of its stake [8] - This valuation places ByteDance between Tencent and Alibaba in terms of market capitalization [8] Group 9 - New Hope Liuhe announced a cash investment of 74.87 million yuan to acquire a 70% stake in Luochuan Lingxian Company [9] - The investment will be used for both purchasing shares and increasing capital for the company [9] Group 10 - Aokema plans to acquire a 45% stake in its subsidiary Qingdao Aokema Smart Industry Co., Ltd. for 253 million yuan, aiming for full ownership [10] - The transaction is part of a strategy to consolidate control over its subsidiary [10]

图片来 源：图虫创意 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿和原矿出口。 2月25日，新华财经披露了上述消息，此次暂停令还包括了目前所有在途的矿产。 受该消息影响，2月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度大涨12%，触及18.7万元/吨。截至当日收盘，上涨 3.47%，报17.37万元/吨。 现货方面，上海钢联最新数据显示，2月26日，电池级碳酸锂早盘均价报17.31万元/吨，较前一工作日 上涨8650元。 根据修订后的其他矿产出口要求，只有持有有效采矿权和已获批选矿厂的矿业公司才被授权出口。代理 商和第三方贸易商无权代表采矿权持有人出口矿产。 出口许可证申请必须包括相关省级矿业办公室出具的建议书，详细说明选矿能力和合规状况，以及每批 货物的矿物成分申报。 津巴布韦政府表示，此举旨在加强矿产问责制，促进选矿增值，并最大限度地提高津巴布韦境内的价值 留存。 津巴布韦在2月17日就曾宣布，为遏制矿物出口中的不当行为和矿物流失，决定调整所有矿物及选矿产 成品的出口流程和框架，并建立有效框架。 在此期间，由于相关政府部门调整其流程，采矿业在出口许可证的处理和签发方面可能遇到暂时性延 误。为此，所有申请新出口许可证和续签现有出口许可证者，应至少 ...