Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in the stock prices of lithium-related companies in the A-share market [1][2]. - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement, indicating heightened market volatility and demand for lithium [1][2]. Group 2 - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports has been implemented much earlier than the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing disruptions in the global lithium supply chain [2]. - This action is expected to directly reduce global lithium production, exacerbating the shortage of concentrates and increasing price elasticity in the short term [2]. - As of January to December 2025, China imported approximately 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4%, primarily from Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria [1].

有色金属周报 20260219 美国非农超预期+春节来临，金属价格震荡 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美国 1 月非农数据超预期，降息预期回落，美伊谈判取得阶段性进展但未来变数 较大，长期来看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线难以根本性扭转，继续坚定看好金价上行。 美国 1 月非农新增就业 13 万个，显著高于市场预期的 7 万个，失业率降至 4.3%，低于预 期的 4.4%，降息预期回落，美国和伊朗就核问题进行接触，双方称谈判取得进展，美伊冲 突释放阶段性缓和信号，压制避险需求，但未来双方局势不确定较大，中长期央行购金+美 元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格中枢上移。白银价格可能依然走弱，这轮周期使得光 伏需求承压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国 黄金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金 集团，建议关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The report notes that silver prices may continue to weaken due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste, indicating a trend towards cheaper metals [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the SW Non-ferrous Index rose by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price increased by 1.51% and COMEX silver decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks, with several companies recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and valuations [3]. Base Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in base metal prices, noting that aluminum prices have been under pressure due to high inventory levels and seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [25][26]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling due to strong U.S. employment data and cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [45]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report states that gold and silver prices have seen fluctuations, with gold averaging 1101.52 CNY per gram, down 0.83% from the previous week, while silver prices fell significantly [74]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metal prices, with a focus on the potential for price recovery as market conditions evolve [78]. Energy Metals - The report highlights a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday as demand recovers [9]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rise due to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore export quota policy [9].

| 权益类证券大宗交易(协议交易) | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 买方营业部 | | 卖方营业部 | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2026-02-25 | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 55.57 | 75.03 | 4,169.62 发证券股份有限 | | 广发证券股份有限 | | | | | | | 公司深圳壹方中心 | | 公司杭州金华南路 | | | | | | | 工艺 地 高品 山 立即 | 江北高山加 | | 2月25日，永兴材料大宗交易成交75.03万股，成交额4169.62万元，占当日总成交额的4.11%，成交价 55.57元，较市场收盘价56.99元折价2.49%。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The steel industry in 2025 is characterized by supply contraction, export growth, price stabilization at low levels, and gradual improvement in profitability, with crude steel and pig iron production decreasing by 4.4% and 3.0% respectively, while steel output increased by 3.1% to 1.446 billion tons [2][10][81] - Steel exports reached a record high of 11.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase, while the average export price fell by 8.1% to 694 USD per ton [10][81] - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 93.19 points in 2025, down 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a narrow fluctuation range and a balance in market supply and demand [11][81] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The raw material prices for iron ore and coking coal showed a mixed trend in 2025, with expectations for stable supply and weak price fluctuations in 2026 [2][19][81] - The steel supply side is constrained by government policies, leading to further reductions in pig iron and crude steel production capacity, while steel mills adopted a "production based on demand" strategy [2][23][81] - The demand structure for steel is shifting, with manufacturing steel usage surpassing construction steel for the first time, accounting for 51% of total demand, while construction steel dropped to 49% [2][44][82] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Profitability - The steel industry is expected to focus on "controlling total volume, optimizing supply, increasing efficiency, and promoting transformation" as it enters the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][82] - Profitability is anticipated to stabilize and improve, supported by structural optimization and cost control, with special steel and green steel sectors likely to benefit from industry development [12][82] - Investment recommendations include companies such as CITIC Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, Yongjin Co., and Yongxing Materials, which are expected to perform well in the evolving market [81][83]

中财期货表示，津巴布韦矿出口受阻，节后储能较好预期开始逐步落地，市场等待预期验证，近期震荡 偏强。 东方证券指出相关标的包括，大中矿业、国城矿业、盛新锂能、天华新能、中矿资源、雅化集团、藏格 矿业、盐湖股份、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、永兴材料等。 南方财经2月25日电，锂矿概念持续走强，川发龙蟒、大中矿业、江特电机等涨停。 东证期货表示，昨日盘面大涨时市场亦有传言津巴布韦锂矿企业出口再次被叫停，后了解称此前锂价高 企导致津巴布韦出现部分没有出口许可的走私矿，被叫停整改，目前合法出口已在恢复。 消息面上，多家期货公司研报指出，津巴布韦锂矿企业出口受阻。 招商证券指出，昨日津巴布韦锂矿出口受阻担忧发酵，叠加市场对3月材料端排产预期较好，环比1月微 增，体现为Q1电池抢出口窗口期过后终端需求预期坚挺，预计价格震荡偏强。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | 最新 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001203 | 大中矿业 | | 9.99 | 611亿 | 29.98 | 39.84 | | 002176 | 江特电机 | | 9.97 | 179亿 | 7.60 | 10.48 | | 603077 | 和邦生物 | 1 | 9.92 | 254亿 | 27.43 | 2.88 | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 1 | 8.86 | 418亿 | 32.73 | 45.70 | | 300390 | 天华新能 | | 8.19 | 447亿 | -1.54 | 53.77 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 1 | 7.40 | 428亿 | 30.00 | 36.14 | | 000762 | 西藏矿业 | 演 | 7.33 | 156亿 | 13.70 | 29.87 | | 002312 | 川发龙蟒 | 1 | 7.21 | 258亿 | 25.16 | 13.68 | | 000546 | 金圆股份 | ...

瑞银在报告中大幅上调锂价预测，将2026年国内碳酸锂含税均价预测上调26%至17万元/吨，并预测2027年将升至20万元/吨。瑞银认为，电动汽车"三重平 衡"逐步落地、储能需求全球爆发将推动锂需求持续增长。 值得注意的是，此前，赣锋锂业董事长李良彬也曾在2025年底公开预测，若2026年需求增速超过30%，碳酸锂价格有望突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨。 除了宏观预期的提振，短期基本面的变化也为价格上涨提供了现实支撑。国泰海通证券最新研报指出，节前国内锂云母原料的主产区之一的江西宜春地区有 锂盐工厂突发火灾，事件虽未造成人员伤亡，却不可避免地引发了市场对该区域生产稳定性的担忧。与此同时，春节期间部分锂盐厂按计划进入季节性检修 阶段，这些共同强化了市场对于短期锂盐供应可能边际收紧的判断，构成了价格上涨的基础支撑。 此外，据新华社报道，美国最高法院裁定取消此前征收的部分额外关税。国泰海通证券指出，机构评估显示，此举有望使中国储能产品出口美国的综合关税 成本降低约5%，直接改善了相关企业的出口利润空间，对锂电产业链的中长期需求预期是一个明确的积极信号。同时，下游电池企业在节前保持着较高的 生产活跃度，且在当前碳酸锂 ...

格隆汇2月24日｜A股市场锂矿股集体走强，其中，和邦生物、云图控股、川发龙蟒10CM涨停，永兴材 料、盛新锂能涨超6%，赣锋锂业、盐湖股份涨超5%，江特电机、海南矿业、西藏珠峰、西藏城投、国 城矿业（维权）、大中矿业、川能动力涨超4%，天齐锂业涨超3%。消息面上，碳酸锂主力合约大涨超 9%，报162160元/吨。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603077 | 和邦生物 | 1 | 10.08 | 231亿 | 15.93 | | 002539 | 云图控股 | 1 | 10.01 | 195亿 | 36.72 | | 002312 | 川发龙蟒 | 1 | 10.00 | 241亿 | 16.74 | | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 来 | 6.40 | 297亿 | 1.42 | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 1 | 6.18 | 381亿 | 20.77 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the lithium industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The lithium industry is expected to transition from a state of "realistic oversupply" to "future tightness," marking 2026 as a pivotal year for price recovery [19] - The financial attributes of lithium have strengthened, with market expectations likely to lead pricing ahead of fundamental improvements [20] - The absolute price heights may be difficult to replicate, but a gradual increase in the price floor is more certain [21] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Viewpoint Discussion - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for lithium prices, moving from a low base to a higher equilibrium due to limited supply elasticity and sustained demand growth [19] - The demand for lithium is projected to maintain a compound growth rate of over 20%, driven by the expansion of renewable energy installations and AI-related infrastructure [19] 2. 2025 Lithium Price Review - In Q1 2025, lithium prices experienced fluctuations due to supply constraints and strong demand expectations, with prices peaking at approximately 78,500 CNY/ton [22] - Q2 2025 saw a decline in prices due to a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping to around 60,400 CNY/ton by the end of June [29] - Q3 2025 marked a recovery in prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and seasonal demand increases, with prices reaching approximately 72,700 CNY/ton by September [36] 3. Demand Analysis - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with energy storage becoming a core growth driver, potentially surpassing 30% of total lithium demand by 2026 [8] - The global electric vehicle market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, although at a slightly reduced pace [19] 4. Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures in the lithium sector have decreased significantly, leading to a structural delay in new project approvals and expansions [10] - The report anticipates limited new supply additions in the coming years, with a projected net increase of 448,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026 [18] 5. Supply-Demand Balance Analysis - The report suggests that the lithium market may not require a complete supply clearing to reverse the current trends, as both supply and demand are expected to increase [38] - Inventory levels are seen as a lagging indicator rather than a decisive factor in price movements [39] 6. Investment Recommendations - Companies with expansion projects in the next three years are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, including Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [12] - Companies with diversified business models that can stabilize profits amid lithium price fluctuations are also recommended, such as Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group [12]