点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链 买入（维持） 业绩保持靓丽，盈利能力韧性十足 公 司 点 评 科达利（002850）2025 年一季报点评 2025 年 4 月 30 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 事件：公司发布了2025年一季度报告。 | 2025 年 | 4 月 29 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | 127.37 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 348.32 | | 总股本(亿股) | | 2.73 | | 流通股本(亿股) | | 1.97 | | ROE（TTM） | | 12.81 | | 12 | 月最高价(元) | 148.80 | | 12 | 月最低价(元) | 68.51 | | 股价走势 | | 证 券 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 研 究 | | 相关报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown steady development in its main business and is expanding into the humanoid robot market, which is expected to gradually open up [3] - The company reported a net profit of 1.472 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.55% [8] - The company is focusing on high-end markets and strengthening relationships with major clients while actively exploring international markets [8] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12.03 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 14.4% [7] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 2.614 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 1.805 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 22.6% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 6.60 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.3 [5][11] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with significant progress in its facilities in the US, Singapore, and Hungary [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.03 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.44% [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 1.472 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.46% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.022 billion CNY, which is a 22.55% increase compared to the same period last year, with a net profit of 387 million CNY, up by 25.51% [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is one of the largest suppliers of precision structural components for power batteries in China, with extensive technical experience and manufacturing capabilities [3] - The growth in the new energy sector, deepening strategic partnerships, and steady demand from high-quality customers are expected to enhance order quality and scale, further improving profitability [3] - The company is actively expanding into high-precision reducers and joint modules related to humanoid robots, which are anticipated to provide new growth opportunities [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The power battery industry has been experiencing strong growth, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and increasing market demand [3] - The expansion of downstream application scenarios and breakthroughs in battery technology are expected to sustain rapid industry development and broad market prospects [3] - Humanoid robots are moving from laboratory settings to commercial applications, showcasing significant market potential and application prospects due to ongoing government support and advancements in AI, biomimicry, and new materials [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit margin for Q1 2025. The company achieved a revenue of 3.022 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.5%, and a net profit of 387 million yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its domestic high-quality customer base while facing a shortage of overseas production capacity, indicating potential for increased shipments. The company has established a strategic cooperation agreement with Inpai Battery for 100% supply of structural components for power and energy storage batteries over the next five years [7] - The robotics business is successfully shipping products, with significant growth potential. The company’s subsidiary, Shenzhen Kemon, focuses on harmonic reducers and has launched several new core transmission technology products for humanoid robots [7] - The investment analysis suggests a slight upward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with new profit projections for 2027. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.813 billion, 2.200 billion, and 2.623 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 20, 17, and 14 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 14.505 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.6%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.813 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 23.2% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 24.0% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.0% [6] - The company’s financial summary indicates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with total revenue expected to reach 20.220 billion yuan by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows high profit margins, with a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [7] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20-30% in the structural components sector for 2025, potentially reaching around 15 billion yuan [7] - The company has a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow of 680 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 198.9% [7] - The company is well-positioned for future growth with its innovative product offerings, including a new lightweight harmonic reducer made from Peek material [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 10.51 billion yuan in 2023, growing to 20.07 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.80% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.20 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.79 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 20.00% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 4.39 yuan in 2023 to 10.20 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 134.50 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 36.78 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.63 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 13.19 by 2027 [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Keda Li Industrial Co., Ltd., has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Fujian Keda Li Precision Industry Co., Ltd., has received the High-tech Enterprise Certificate, which allows it to enjoy tax benefits for three years [9]. Financial Data - The quarterly report has not been audited [3][8]. - There are no adjustments or restatements of previous accounting data required [4]. - The company does not have any non-recurring profit and loss items [4]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders and the situation of the top ten shareholders have not changed due to any lending or borrowing of shares [6]. Other Important Matters - The company confirms that the financial information disclosed is true, accurate, and complete, with no misleading statements or significant omissions [2][9].

Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 253 million yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The company's gross margin stood at 22.2%, remaining flat year-on-year but down 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a decline in utilization rates. The expense ratio was 9.16%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Credit impairment reversals amounted to 20 million yuan, with other income at 23 million yuan. The net profit margin, excluding non-recurring items, was 11.68%, down 0.1% year-on-year and 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The impact of tariffs is limited, with the main business gradually expanding overseas. The company is actively developing a second growth curve in robot components. It is expected that the overseas base will see growth rates exceeding overall business growth by 2025, potentially turning profitable. Recently, the company launched seven new core transmission technology robots, focusing on lightweight and high performance, and has established a product matrix including harmonic reducers and intelligent joint modules, continuing customer sample testing [2] - Looking ahead, the company anticipates that revenue growth in the main business for 2025 will exceed last year's levels, with industry price declines expected to be weaker than in 2024. The company remains optimistic about profit margin resilience, with the robot business expected to contribute tens of millions in revenue [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - As a global leader in structural components, the company maintains its leading position with stable profitability validated by performance. The expansion into robot components is viewed positively as a second growth curve. The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.81 billion, 2.08 billion, and 2.36 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 18, and 16 times. The rating is maintained as "Buy" with a strong recommendation [3]

深圳市科达利实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司福建科达 利精密工业有限公司（以下简称"福建科达利"）于近日收到福建省科学技术厅、 福建省财政厅、国家税务总局福建省税务局联合颁发的《高新技术企业证书》， 证书编号：GR202435002643，发证时间：2024 年 12 月 4 日，有效期三年。 根据《中华人民共和国企业所得税法》等相关规定，福建科达利自本次通过 高新技术企业认定后，连续三年（即 2024 年、2025 年、2026 年）可享受国家关 于高新技术企业的相关税收优惠政策，即按 15%的税率缴纳企业所得税。 福建科达利 2024 年度已根据相关规定按照 15%的企业所得税税率进行财务 核算，上述税收优惠政策不会对公司此前已披露的《2024 年年度报告》相关财 务数据产生影响。 | 证券代码：002850 | 证券简称：科达利 | 公告编号：2025-023 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127066 | 债券简称：科利转债 | | 深圳市科达利实业股份有限公司 关于全资子公司福建科达利获得高新技术企业证书的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Keda Li (002850) reported a revenue of 3.022 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.46% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 387 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.51% [1]