证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|芒果超媒（300413） 会员规模持续增长，优质内容储备丰富 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们预计公司 24-26 年营业收入分别为 153.59/168.95/184.16 亿元，同比分别增长 5%/10%/9%；归母净利润分别为 18.89/22.16/24.88 亿元，同比增速分别为-47%/17%/12%。EPS 分别为 1.01/1.18/1.33 元。我们看好公司作为国企控股长视频平台的稀缺性，以及长期优质 内容有望推动会员增长，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月29日 芒果超媒(300413) 会员规模持续增长，优质内容储备丰富 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | | | | 行 业： | 传媒/数 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 芒果超媒（300413）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 28 日收盘价（元） ] | 26.58 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 18.07-31.56 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1871/1022 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 49724/27157 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 爆 款 内 容 频 出 ， 24H1 | | | 26.77% 》 2024.08.23 | | | 《优质内容 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [1]. - The membership business continues to show strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a significant increase of 26.77% year-on-year, and the effective membership scale exceeding 70 million [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its content offerings, with a notable increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows and a strong performance in original dramas, which is expected to bolster user engagement and retention [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.436 billion yuan, 17.149 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.521 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.52%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.902 billion yuan in 2024, 2.096 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.379 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -46.52%, 10.21%, and 13.51% respectively [5][8]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [5]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The monthly active user count for the company's platform reached 268 million, placing it among the top three in the long-video industry [2]. - The company has successfully integrated AIGC technology into several programs, enhancing content production efficiency and quality [4]. - The launch of the "730 Da Mang Theater" for micro-short dramas is expected to create a unique content cluster, further diversifying the company's offerings [4].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·数字媒体 芒果超媒（300413） 2024 年第三季度财报点评：综艺及剧集播放 量齐增，会员规模再创新高 2024 年 10 月 29 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|-------|---------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | | 13977 | 14628 | 15024 | 16816 | 17818 | | 同比（ % ） | | (8.98) | 4.66 | 2.71 | 11.93 | 5.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1864 | 3556 | 1745 | 2026 | 2219 | | 同比（ % ） | (11.82) | | 90.73 | (50.91) | 16.08 | 9.51 | | EPS- ...

传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 会员数量创新高，头部综艺延续热播表现 ——芒果超媒(300413)季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 芒果超媒(300413)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 有效会员破 7000 万，期待 Q4 优势内容表现 ——芒果超媒(300413) 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评： 税收政策调整影响利润增速，收入前三季度-0.85% 2024 前三季度，公司实现营业收入 102.78 亿元，同比微降 0.85%；实现 归母净利润 14.44 亿元，同比下降 18.96%，扣非归母净利润 12.26 亿元， 同比下降 23.98%，主要受税收政策调整影响，利润端略承压。分季度来看， 24Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 33.18 亿元，同比下降 7.14%，归母净利 润 3.80 亿元，同比下滑 27.41%，扣非归母净利润 3.14 亿元，同比下降 26.80%。费用率角度，2024 年前三季度，公司销售/管理/研发费用率为 11.87%/2.50%/1.24%，较上年同期分别下降 3.53/1.30/0.34pct。 有效会员突破 700 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to increased income tax [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in series and content production, which is anticipated to drive membership revenue growth [5][8] - The integration of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) in content production is progressing well, with various applications already in place [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 33.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.14%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8.74% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.80 billion yuan, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.95% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.05%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin was 29.15%, down 6.67 percentage points year-over-year [3] Content Strategy - The company has solidified its leading position in variety shows, with 2.5 billion effective plays in Q3 2024, a year-over-year increase of 22% [4] - The company has a clear strategy for content production across three tiers: head, mid-tier, and customized member content [4] - The effective membership scale has exceeded 70 million, marking a new high, driven by strong content offerings and innovative member benefits [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 150.22 billion yuan, 166.47 billion yuan, and 179.95 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 18.11 billion yuan, 21.85 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas downloads of its app increasing significantly [8]

芒果超媒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 300413） | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 13,704 14,628 15,066 16,693 18,480 增长率 yoy% -11% 7% 3% 11% 11% 归母净利润（百万元） 1,825 3,556 1,905 2,116 2,346 增长率 yoy% -14% 95% -46% 11% 11% 每股收益（元） 0.98 1.90 1.02 1.13 1.25 每股现金流量 0.29 0.58 1.49 2.06 2.58 净资产收益率 10% 17% 8% 9% 9% P/E 27.5 14.1 26.3 23.7 21.4 P/B 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 备注：股价截止自2024 年 10 月 26 日收盘价 评级： 增持（首次） 分析师：康雅雯 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 分析师：李昱喆 执业证书编号：S0740524090002 Email：liyz05@zts.com.cn 基本状况 报告摘要 公司概览：国有新媒体平台，打造多元融合生态。芒果超 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 芒果超媒 (300413.SZ) 业绩简评 2024 年 10 月 26 日,公司披露三季度业绩报告，2024 前三季度实 现营收 102.78 亿元，同比-0.85%，归母净利 14.44 亿元，同比 -18.96%；2024Q3 公司实现营收 33.18 亿元，同比-7.14%，归母净 利润 3.8 亿元，同比-27.41%。 经营分析 主业表现稳健，所得税对净利影响仍在，内容储备增加致经营性 现金流下降。受企业所得税政策调整影响，公司所得税费用较去 年同期增加 2.8 亿元，致归母净利润同比下降。2024 前三季度公 司经营性现金流净额-3.25 亿，系公司加大优质剧集内容储备。 内容端表现： 1）综艺：有效播放量保持快速增长，形成"头部"、"腰部"、"会 员定制"三梯队综艺研发矩阵，对内容丰富度和会员付费提升具 有双重意义。根据云合数据，2024Q3 芒果 TV 全网综艺有效播放 25 亿，同比+22%。2024Q3《你好，星期六 2024》《中餐厅 8》《披 荆斩棘 4》3 档节目表现突出，位列台综、网综霸屏榜 TOP3。芒果 TV 上新季播综艺 31 部，位居爱优腾 ...