Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Wens Foodstuff Group conducted a block trade on February 11, with a total of 328,000 shares traded, amounting to 4.1426 million yuan, which represents 0.86% of the total trading volume for that day [1][2] - The transaction price was set at 12.63 yuan per share, which reflects a discount of 19.91% compared to the market closing price of 15.77 yuan [1][2]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agriculture industry is "Positive" [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural investment opportunities following the release of the central government's No. 1 document, which highlights the need for comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig farming industry [5][19]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the livestock and planting sectors, particularly focusing on companies with low valuations and strong growth potential [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pig Farming**: The average price for pigs is 12.14 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 CNY from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 29.24 CNY/kg, which increased by 0.62 CNY [5][19]. The industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year [6][20]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for broiler chickens is 14 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.3 CNY increase. However, the industry is facing challenges with profitability, as the average loss per chicken is 0.26 CNY [21][22]. The report suggests that chicken prices may remain volatile in the medium term due to high production levels [21][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][10]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The No. 1 document promotes the industrialization of biotechnology in agriculture, which is expected to enhance the seed supply chain and improve the market environment for genetically modified crops [11][23]. The report gives a positive rating for the seed industry, highlighting the long-term investment value of leading companies [11][23]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends indicate that grain prices are likely to continue rising due to increased demand and reduced supply. The average price for corn is 2394 CNY/ton, and for wheat, it is 2531 CNY/ton, both showing slight increases [12][24]. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting sector, particularly in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development [12][24].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in a relaxed supply environment, with overall pig prices declining throughout 2025, despite a slight year-end recovery, remaining at relatively low levels. The competition is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency and collaboration within the industry chain [2][5][26]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The pig farming industry is expected to face supply pressure in the first half of 2026, with a projected output of 719.73 million pigs in 2025, a 2.4% increase, and a pork production of 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase [2][4]. - The breeding efficiency is improving, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 18.32 in 2021 to 24.03 in 2024, indicating a reduction in production costs [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with over 70% of pig farming being scaled, and the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% of output [4][5]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Overall pork consumption is expected to show weak recovery in 2026, influenced by population and income levels, with a projected per capita pork consumption of 26.6 kg per year, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year [8][9]. - The demand for pork is being affected by the availability of alternative meats, which may divert consumption away from pork [8][9]. - The overall pig price trend in 2025 was downward, with slight year-end recovery, but still at low levels, influenced by seasonal demand and supply pressures [9][11]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The pig farming industry is positioned as a conversion link in the value chain, connecting upstream feed and breeding industries with downstream slaughtering and processing sectors [12]. - The bargaining power of upstream suppliers is weak, while the downstream bargaining power varies, with leading companies establishing long-term supply agreements to enhance pricing power [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and collaboration, with leading companies focusing on integrated operations across the supply chain [14][16]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The industry is guided by policies aimed at stabilizing production and improving quality, with a focus on enhancing breeding efficiency and reducing costs through technological advancements [17][19]. - Leading companies are leveraging technology to restructure cost advantages, while smaller firms are encouraged to innovate in niche markets [20][21]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards more systematic management, emphasizing compliance and quality control across the supply chain [19]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - In 2025, the agricultural sector issued 75 bonds totaling 51.134 billion yuan, with major issuers being leading companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [21][22]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence in credit quality, with larger firms maintaining stable financing channels while smaller firms face tighter financing conditions [25][27]. - The overall credit risk in the pig farming industry is manageable, with stronger companies expected to solidify their credit standing amid ongoing market pressures [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The central government emphasizes comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the recently released No. 1 Central Document, indicating a shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation [6][16] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a gradual recovery despite a 0.1% decline in the SW pig farming sector, with current market pressures expected to ease as production capacity is regulated [6][16] - The poultry sector faces ongoing challenges with high production capacity and weak consumption, but leading companies are likely to gain market share [18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and expand its market presence [10][20] - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2028, driven by changing consumer perceptions [51] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The pig price continues to decline, with a current price of 11.84 yuan/kg, and the industry is facing dual pressures of supply and demand [6][16] - The central government's policy shift aims to regulate the breeding stock and enhance market adaptability [6][16] - Companies with cost advantages and innovative models are expected to outperform [17] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.6 yuan/kg, down 5.2% week-on-week [18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may reduce the supply of imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices [18] - Integrated companies and those with contract farming models are likely to expand their market share [18] 3. Feed - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase dividend payouts [10][20] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with significant overseas market expansion [20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is projected to grow rapidly, with expectations of reaching a market size of over 400 billion yuan by 2028 [51] - Companies with strong domestic and international sales are recommended for long-term investment opportunities [21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have decreased by 1.5%, while corn prices have shown slight fluctuations [22] - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the near term, with a focus on weather and import impacts [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in near-month contracts is attributed to weakening spot prices, with a notable trend of backwardation in the market [3][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot price of live pigs initially rose to 13.30 yuan/kg in January due to holiday stocking and adverse weather, but has since come under pressure as supply increases ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, pig farming enterprises are increasing their market supply to mitigate holiday risks, leading to a rise in supply pressure [3][19]. - The average weight of pigs being sold is currently high, and the reduction in weight before the holiday is less than expected, exceeding the capacity to meet holiday demand [3][19]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The demand for frozen products remains relatively stable, with a decline in utilization rates across various regions; northern markets have seen a decrease of around 10%, while southern markets show a varied decline between 2-11% [3][19]. - Frozen product inventories are continuously decreasing, although overall levels are higher than at the end of the previous year [3][19]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The supply of newborn piglets is expected to peak around May 2026, with a continuous improvement in supply anticipated in Q3 2026, indicating a strong backwardation pricing trend for the year [4][20]. - The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of 2026, with expectations for spot prices to recover around May [4][20]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The high basis of near-month contract 2603 continues, with the futures market showing a persistent downward trend, indicating a significant divergence between futures and spot prices [5][21]. - There is a need to monitor the risk of a significant decline in spot prices after the holiday, while short-term backwardation strategies are supported by fundamentals [5][21]. - Attention should be given to the reduction of breeding sows and potential low-position buying opportunities in the far-month contracts 2609 and 2611 as the market stabilizes [5][21].

Core Viewpoint - Company Wens Foodstuff Group is entering the pet food market by acquiring a stake in Qingdao Shuang'an Biotechnology Co., aiming to leverage synergies and enhance sustainable development capabilities amid declining profits in its main business [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Wens Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wens Foodstuff Group, plans to invest up to 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring 14.8684 million yuan of registered capital for 44.3854 million yuan and subscribing to an additional 34.4579 million yuan of registered capital for 103 million yuan [1]. - Post-transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an, becoming its largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The pet food market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption market surpassing 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, and the pet food market reaching 167.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [2]. - The competitive landscape includes major foreign players like Mars and Nestlé Purina, as well as domestic brands such as Zhongchong Co., Guai Bao Pet, and Peidi Co., all vying for market share [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Major meat companies are recognizing opportunities in the pet food sector, with several, including Shengnong Development and Deli Foods, establishing joint ventures and production projects for pet food [3]. - Experts highlight that Wens Foodstuff Group's advantage lies in its upstream resources and established supply chain, allowing for cost control and quality assurance in pet food production [3].

Core Viewpoint - The investment by Wens Foodstuff Group in Qingdao Shuang'an Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. aims to strengthen its core business while exploring strategic opportunities in the pet food sector, enhancing sustainable development and risk resilience [1][3]. Investment Details - Wens Investment plans to invest no more than 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring approximately 22.19% of its equity and subscribing to an additional capital increase of 103 million yuan [4]. - After the transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an's equity, making it the largest shareholder [4][5]. Company Background - Qingdao Shuang'an, established in 2010, operates in the pet food industry, including the development and production of pet food and health products, with brands like Black Nose and Cat Doctor [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 407 million yuan and a net profit of 12.16 million yuan by 2025, with total assets of 506 million yuan and net assets of 144 million yuan [6]. Market Context - The pet consumption market in China is expected to grow significantly, reaching 405 billion yuan by 2028, with pet food accounting for 53.7% of the market share [7]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., with significant revenue figures, highlighting the challenges faced by Qingdao Shuang'an [9]. Strategic Implications - The investment is seen as a strategic move for Wens Foodstuff Group to diversify and stabilize its business amid declining profits, with a projected net profit drop of 40.73%-46.12% in 2025 [9][10]. - By acquiring Qingdao Shuang'an, Wens aims to leverage synergies in cost reduction, product upgrades, and channel sharing, potentially enhancing future profit growth [10].

生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...