温氏股份加入宠物食品混战。近日，温氏股份发布公告，公司全资子公司广东温氏投资有限公司（以下简称"温氏投资"）拟受让青岛双安生物科技有限公司 （以下简称"青岛双安"）部分股权并向其进行增资，进而切入宠物食品这一细分赛道。 公告显示，此次交易，温氏投资拟投资不超过1.47亿元。其中，温氏投资拟受让温润农科壹号（珠海）创业投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）等4名交易对手 持有的青岛双安合计1486.84万元的注册资本，交易对价为4438.54万元。同时，温氏投资拟以1.03亿元认购青岛双安新增注册资本3445.79万元。交易完成 后，温氏投资将持有青岛双安48.18%的股权，成为其第一大股东。 公开信息显示，青岛双安是一家从事宠物食品业务的公司，成立于2010年，业务涉及宠物食品、宠物保健品研发生产及供应链服务和销售渠道运营等，打造 了黑鼻头、猫博士等自有品牌。2025年，青岛双安实现营收4.07亿元，净利润为1216.6万元。 对于此次投资，温氏股份称，旨在继续巩固现有主业优势的基础上，积极探索并布局具备协同效应及战略价值的优质细分赛道，提升公司可持续发展能力与 抗风险能力。这一选择或与其主业承压有关，业绩预告显示，由 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The total net profit for the tracked companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is projected to be CNY 30.949 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The top three sub-sectors by profit growth are animal health (+76%), planting industry (+54%), and pet food (+3%) [3][4]. - The report highlights significant performance disparities among different sectors, with the animal husbandry sector facing challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, particularly in pig farming, where the average price of pigs dropped by 29.9% year-on-year [3][5]. - The pet food sector shows resilience in domestic markets despite a slowdown in overseas growth, with a projected online sales growth of 10.2% in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Animal Husbandry - The pig farming sector is expected to see a net profit of CNY 20.908 billion in 2025, down 26% year-on-year, with significant losses reported in Q4 [5][8]. - The chicken farming sector remains profitable, with white chicken prices stable and yellow chicken prices showing a 9.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food sales are projected to grow, with major companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. expected to report net profits of CNY 0.678 billion and CNY 0.433 billion, respectively [3][4]. Planting Industry - The report notes a recovery in edible mushroom prices, with a projected net profit increase of 154% for Zhongxing Junye in 2025 [3][4]. - Blueberry prices have slightly decreased, but companies are expected to maintain profitability through volume sales [3][4]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is projected to see a net profit increase of 76%, driven by new product launches and increased demand for veterinary vaccines [3][4]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing challenges with low grain prices, leading to a mixed performance among companies, with Dabeinong expected to report a significant loss [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities report indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group expects a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a range of 5-5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.73%-46.12% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 4.8-5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.64%-49.86% [1] - For 2026-2027, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 8.325 billion yuan and 15.018 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 1.25 yuan and 2.26 yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Business Performance - The company anticipates a total pig output of 40.4769 million heads in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.11%, exceeding the initial target of 33-35 million heads [1] - Profit margins in the pig and chicken farming sectors are expected to decline due to a significant drop in market prices, which has outpaced cost reductions [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to continue capacity reduction in the first half of the year due to persistently low pig prices since early 2026, with a potential turning point in the market likely occurring in the second half [1] - Despite the anticipated downturn in the pig cycle for 2026, the company's ongoing cost reduction efforts suggest that performance may still see growth over the next two years [1] Group 4: Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.64x for 2026 and 7.01x for 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low historical valuations and potential recovery in prices [4][9]. Core Insights - The price of live pigs has dropped to 11.87 yuan per kilogram, indicating a potential restart of destocking in the pig farming industry [3][4]. - The report highlights that the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025, suggesting an oversupply situation [4]. - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines for pigs after the Spring Festival, with the industry likely to face increased losses and further capacity reduction [4]. - The report notes that the average utilization rate of breeding facilities is currently high, which may contribute to the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.87 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.8% [4]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is 4 kg heavier than the same period in previous years [4]. - The report indicates that the breeding sector has experienced three weeks of profitability but has recently returned to losses, with an average loss of 38 yuan per head [4]. - The report lists the monthly slaughter volumes of major listed pig companies, with a total of 13.08 million pigs slaughtered in January 2026, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4]. Poultry Farming - The report states that the inventory of white feather broiler chickens remains high, while yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months [5][7]. - The average price of yellow feather broilers is reported at 14.95 yuan/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease [7]. Cattle Industry - The report notes that the total cattle inventory in China has decreased by 8.6% as of the end of 2025, with expectations for continued declines in 2026 [9]. - The report suggests that declining cattle inventory is a precursor to rising beef prices, with predictions for accelerated price increases in the first half of 2026 [9]. Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion yuan [8]. - The report highlights that the pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [8].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 | [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | 本周猪价小幅回落，优选成本领先的龙头猪企 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/2 ...

Core Insights - The sales data from major pig farming companies in January 2026 indicates a slight recovery in pig prices after a prolonged period of decline, with prices generally rising to above 12 RMB/kg compared to December 2025 [1][2] - The stability and growth of large-scale farming operations are putting pressure on smallholders, highlighting the ongoing trend of industry consolidation and the need for smaller farmers to adapt to market changes [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major pig farming companies reported significant sales figures, with Muyuan selling over 7 million pigs and Wens close to 3 million pigs in January 2026 [1] - The average selling prices for pigs in January were reported as follows: Muyuan at 12.57 RMB/kg, Wens at 12.75 RMB/kg, New Hope at 12.48 RMB/kg, and Dongrui at 13.33 RMB/kg, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - The rise in prices is attributed to multiple factors, including pre-Spring Festival stocking and adjustments in the sales rhythm of large farms [1] Group 2: Impact on Smallholders - The increasing market share of large-scale farms is exacerbating the disadvantages faced by smallholders in terms of information access, cost management, and risk resilience [2] - Each price fluctuation serves as a test for all market participants, emphasizing the need for smallholders to understand market dynamics and their positioning within the industry [2] Group 3: AI Integration in Agriculture - The January 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with agricultural development, marking a shift from concept to practical application in the pig farming sector [2][3] - Wens has implemented AI in over 200 business scenarios, with more than 20 achieving large-scale application, focusing on areas such as disease prediction and feed nutrition adjustment [3] - The use of AI aims to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making in pig farming, transforming traditional practices into data-driven processes [3] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The essence of pig farming remains unchanged: to raise healthy pigs at reasonable costs for sustainable profits, despite advancements in technology and market fluctuations [3][4] - Smallholders are encouraged to adopt technology gradually, such as using management apps and remote consultation platforms, to improve data management and decision-making [4][5] - The industry's evolution is shaped by both large and small farms, with resilience and continuous learning being crucial for navigating uncertainties [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization, reiterating the importance of "new agricultural productivity" and the continuous focus on seed industry revitalization, particularly in biological breeding [4]. - In livestock, there is a shift towards "strengthening" comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, with a focus on stabilizing the beef and dairy industries, and promoting dairy product consumption [4]. - The document highlights the importance of grain security, aiming to stabilize grain production at around 14 trillion jin, and introduces measures to enhance grain circulation efficiency [4]. - The report outlines the implementation of agricultural technology, including the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, and identifies key application scenarios such as drones, IoT, and robotics [4]. - The report suggests three main investment focuses: the recovery of the beef and dairy industries, the expected rebound in the pig cycle, and the continued advancement of the seed industry and biological breeding [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The report indicates a comprehensive approach to regulating pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of measures taken to support the beef and dairy industries [4]. - It also mentions the introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption for the first time [4]. Crop Production - The focus remains on food security, with a commitment to stabilize grain production and enhance the efficiency of grain circulation [4]. - The report introduces a new round of initiatives aimed at increasing grain production capacity, particularly for oilseed crops like soybeans [4]. Seed Industry - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of seed industry revitalization actions and the acceleration of biological breeding industrialization [4]. - It notes the continuous mention of biological breeding in the Central Document over the past six years, highlighting its growing importance [4]. Agricultural Technology - The report outlines the path for implementing new agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for technology integration, particularly in AI applications [4]. Agricultural Trade - The report advocates for the coordination of agricultural trade and production, promoting diversification of agricultural imports and supporting the export of competitive agricultural products [4].

猪企1月销售简报集中出炉。 在1月猪价环比有所回升的背景下，多家上市猪企1月销售简报集中出炉。 证券时报记者注意到，人工智能（AI）近年来已逐渐渗透到各行各业，生猪养殖行业也不例外， 多家上市猪企在夯实主业的同时，纷纷利用AI对其主业进行赋能。 猪企1月销售简报集中出炉 猪价环比略有回升 2月6日晚间，新希望披露的2026年1月销售情况简报显示，公司2026年1月销售商品猪112.18万 头，环比变动-28.02%，同比变动9.70%。商品猪销售收入16.28亿元，环比变动-20.15%，同比变 动-10.03%。商品猪销售均价12.48元/公斤，环比变动10.64%，同比变动-19.01%。 这是近期上市猪企集中披露2026年1月销售情况的一个缩影。 当晚，东瑞股份也披露了2026年1月生猪销售简报。相关简报显示，2026年1月份，东瑞股份共销 售生猪16.28万头，销售收入2.14亿元、环比上升25.19%；商品猪销售均价13.33元/公斤，环比上 升6.30%。其中向全资子公司河源市东瑞肉类食品有限公司销售生猪0.08万头。 天邦食品2月6日晚间也披露了2026年1月商品猪销售情况简报。简报显示，公司2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuff, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the feed industry is transitioning from product competition to value chain competition, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies with advantages in technology, scale, and service [7]. - Haida Group is expected to continue gaining market share due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [7]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is undergoing a market-driven capacity reduction, which may stabilize prices in the coming months [8]. Industry Performance Overview - For the week of January 26 to February 1, the agricultural sector saw a 1.82% increase, ranking fifth among sectors, while the CSI 300 index had a slight increase of 0.08% [6][16]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 12.15, 12.16, and 12.63 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting decreases of 5.08%, 9.66%, and 4.54% [6][26]. - The average pork price increased slightly to 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.65% [6][26]. Livestock and Feed Industry - The report indicates that the average profit for self-bred pigs is 25.10 yuan/head, down by 18.25 yuan from the previous week, while the profit for purchased pig farming increased by 8.29 yuan to 124.13 yuan/head [6][26]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chickens rose to 7.74 yuan/kg, a 3.20% increase, and the profit per chicken increased significantly by 550% to 0.39 yuan/chicken [44]. - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, while chicken feed prices were steady at 3.45 yuan/kg [47]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the feed industry, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological and service advantages [7]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift towards R&D and supply chain management as key competitive factors [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on February 6, 2026, with the major consumption index down by 1.06% as of 10:08 AM, indicating mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The food and beverage industry is showing a recovery trend, particularly in the liquor sector, driven by macro policy optimization, low valuation levels, and improvements in leading companies' fundamentals [1] - Optimized real estate policies and intensive domestic demand support measures have boosted market expectations for a recovery in consumer scenarios [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index as of January 30, 2026, include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Muyuan Foods, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wens Foodstuff, Haitian Flavoring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Haida Group, collectively accounting for 67.37% of the index [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the major consumption index, which encompasses leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with liquor being the largest sector, accounting for over 38% of the index [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]