盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报我们调整盈利预测，上调出货量，预计 2025、2026、2027 年公司归母净 利润 657.48、798.91、951.51 亿元（原预测值为 25、26 年 648、769 亿元），对 应 25-27 年 PE 17.6、14.4、12.1 倍，根据可比公司估值，给予公司 25 年 24 倍 PE，目标价 358.32 元，维持"买入"评级。 宁德时代 300750.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩符合预期，海外进展顺利 核心观点 风险提示 新能源汽车销量不达预期；行业竞争加剧风险；新产品和新技术开发风险；原材料价格 波动风险；价格波动导致的盈利水平下降风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 400,917 | 362,013 | 490,618 | 572,537 | 675,005 | | 同比增长 (%) | 22.0% | -9.7% | 35.5% | 16.7% | 17.9% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 358.32 CNY, based on a projected PE of 24 times for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, with a revenue forecast of 362.01 billion CNY and a net profit of 50.75 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.01% [8]. - The company has significantly improved its capacity utilization, reaching 76.3% for the year, and is making steady progress in its overseas expansion, including factories in Germany, Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia [8]. - New product launches are progressing well, with the company introducing innovative battery series that are expected to increase their market share in the LFP and NCM product lines [8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 400.92 billion CNY in 2023 to 675.01 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 44.12 billion CNY in 2023 to 95.15 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 19.1% [5][11]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 24% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to remain around 14% [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Times Qiji New Energy Technology (Deyang) Co., Ltd. indicates a strategic move by CATL to expand its footprint in the new energy sector, particularly in the development and sales of electric vehicle battery swapping facilities and energy measurement technologies [1] Company Summary - Times Qiji New Energy Technology (Deyang) Co., Ltd. has been recently established with a registered capital of 5 million yuan [1] - The company is fully owned by Times Qiji Green Energy Technology (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL [1] - The business scope includes research and development of emerging energy technologies, sales of electric vehicle battery swapping facilities, and online energy measurement technology development [1]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 17 March 2025 Equity Research Report CATL (300750 CH) Buy: Resilient domestic dominance and global expansion opportunities Solid 4Q 2024 results in line with expectations; sustained growth momentum from overseas and ESS battery market expansion and domestic market dominance. On 14 March 2025, CATL announced its 2024 net profit of RMB51bn (up 15% y-o-y), largely in line with the preliminary results announced in January. The company also proposed a total of more than RMB25bn di ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [7][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 362.01 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.75 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.01% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has maintained its leading position in the power battery sector, ranking first globally in both power battery usage and energy storage battery shipments for eight and four consecutive years, respectively [7][8]. - The company has a robust research and development framework, with over 20,000 R&D personnel and a total of 43,354 patents and patent applications, ensuring a comprehensive and advanced product matrix [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 400.92 billion yuan - 2024: 362.01 billion yuan - 2025: 448.87 billion yuan - 2026: 544.16 billion yuan - 2027: 640.14 billion yuan [4][10] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: 44.12 billion yuan - 2024: 50.75 billion yuan - 2025: 66.42 billion yuan - 2026: 81.44 billion yuan - 2027: 96.01 billion yuan [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 10.02 yuan - 2024: 11.52 yuan - 2025: 15.08 yuan - 2026: 18.49 yuan - 2027: 21.80 yuan [4][10] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2023: 26.15 - 2024: 22.74 - 2025: 17.37 - 2026: 14.17 - 2027: 12.02 [4][10] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2023: 5.84 - 2024: 4.67 - 2025: 3.92 - 2026: 3.27 - 2027: 2.74 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expected investment return over the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.75 billion yuan, an increase of 15.01% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company's battery shipment volume reached 475 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage battery systems [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing global capacity expansion and the electrification of vehicles, with a total production capacity of 676 GWh and an additional 219 GWh under construction [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 26.54%, up 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.83% [1]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 67.07 billion yuan, 82.74 billion yuan, and 97.95 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 32.2%, 23.4%, and 18.4% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 11.52 yuan in 2024 to 22.24 yuan in 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 302.30, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][8][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing in 2025, supported by a strong performance in Q4 2024, where lithium battery sales reached 145 GWh, reflecting a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase [6][11]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 457.1 billion in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 63.3 billion, and an EPS of RMB 13.97 [10][14]. - The report notes a significant increase in production capacity utilization, which reached 76.3% for the year, with expectations of further growth in the second half of 2024 [7][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating remains "Buy" with a target price adjustment to RMB 302.30 from RMB 301.00 [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 362.0 billion for 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling battery prices influenced by lower lithium carbonate costs [6][10]. - The average selling prices for power and energy storage batteries were RMB 0.75/Wh and RMB 0.70/Wh, respectively [6]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects 2025E EPS at RMB 13.97, with a subsequent increase to RMB 17.28 in 2026E and RMB 18.89 in 2027E [2][10]. - The adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 457.1 billion and RMB 508.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a 12.6% and 14.2% increase from previous estimates [15]. Market Position - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected net profit margin of approximately 14.7% in 2025, supported by a robust cash flow and dividend policy [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the lithium battery market, with a focus on expanding its market share in Europe through new production facilities [7][8].

国内新能源汽车换电市场的两大巨头正式"牵手"。3月17日，蔚来与宁德时代在福建宁德签署战略合作协议，双方将通过构建覆盖全系乘用车的换 电网络、统一行业技术标准、深化资本与业务合作，为广大用户提供更高效的能源解决方案。 蔚来牵手宁德时代 换电双巨头将引爆市场？ （原标题：蔚来牵手宁德时代 换电双巨头将引爆市场？） 蔚来方面还透露了双方即将进行的资本合作的细节，即宁德时代正在推进对蔚来能源不超过25亿元人民币的战略投资。 早在2024年3月，蔚来与宁德时代曾就"共同推动长寿命电池研发创新"签署框架协议。但当时双方的合作仅限于"电池研发"领域。 时隔一年，蔚来与宁德时代的合作扩展到了换电业务。根据此次战略合作协议，蔚来与宁德时代将发挥双方在相关领域所拥有的技术、管理、平 台、品牌资源等优势，打造全球规模最大、技术最领先的乘用车换电服务网络。双方还将在统一电池标准的基础上，深化换电网络共享，推动换 电服务的普及与升级。 这对于整个换电行业来说是一个标志性的事件。因为此次合作的双方在换电市场有着举足轻重的地位。蔚来是国内力推新能源汽车换电模式的车 企，同时也是全国布局充电桩和换电站数量最多的汽车品牌。宁德时代是全球最大 ...

宁德时代（300750.SZ） 净利润增长程度高于总收入下降程度，公司战略定力带来盈利质量 显著提升 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 400,917 | 362,013 | 447,375 | 532,242 | 632,038 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 22.0 | -9.7 | 23.6 | 19.0 | 18.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44,121 | 50,745 | 65,406 | 79,151 | 94,334 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 43.6 | 15.0 | 28.9 | 21.0 | 19.2 | | ROE（%） | 21.3 | 19.7 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 20.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 10.02 | 11.52 | 14.85 | 17.97 | 21.42 | | P/E（倍） | 25.5 ...