好，谢谢各位领导的时间。接下来的这个环节就进入到了策略阶段。策略这一块还是由我们 三位同事，我还有刘刚、Kevin, 李钊、钊波，我们三个人分别做一个介绍和汇报，我这边会 花一点时间讲一下我们对于二季度 A 股市场的一个展望和看法。Kevin 这边重点介绍的还是 这个海外和港股招我这边主要介绍一下我们现在对于这个大类资产配置的一个看法，我这边 先讲一下 A 股，A 股的话我们在去年的 11 月份，当时发年度展望到现在也差不多有三四个 月的时间。 我们当时对于今年的这个市场的看法主要有三个方面。首先第一个观点，我们是认为去年的 九月份，当时应该就是资本市场的一个很重要的历史大底。比如说今年往未来的 1 到 2 年看， 市场回到去年 9 月份的这个可能性都不是很大。我们觉得今年的市场整体的环境可能既不会 像去年 9 月份之前那么谨慎，也不会像去年 10 月份那么亢奋，大概率应该就是一个风险偏 好回归正常的一年。那么在这种背景之下，今年的结构性的机会有可能会比 2024 年会有一 个进一步的增加，这是我们的第一个看法。 第二看法，就是从节奏上，节奏去年的话是有一些大起大落的。去年的话市场呈现的是一个 全年的先抑后扬 ...

非常感谢李昭还给我多争取了两分钟。作为已经在行业里 20 年的资深卖方分析师，我先来 卖两样东西。第一样东西是下周我们中金的国际研究会邀请 26 家海外的上市公司，纯粹的 海外上市公司，不是中概股，就是美股、欧洲、日本的一些上市公司，跟大家做一个线上的 交流，也希望大家积极报名。同时我们也邀请到了来自东南亚、日本还有中东的一些嘉宾跟 大家做一个沟通。这是下周，这是第一个卖的东西。第二个卖的东西是 deep sick 来了。我 们中金的大模型也接入了 deep sick，而且我们是满血版的，也做了测试，效果还不错。 所以我们看到中国的这个均值，我们只是比 OECD 国家要低。其实我们比世界上所有的主要 的经济体，如果按均值来看，都是要高的。这个是第一个宏观的图景。第二个我们看过去十 年的增长来自于哪里？OECD 的国家或者说高收入国家，他们的 GDP 占全球是 64%，他们的 增长一点都不慢。过去十年的复合增速是 3%。中等偏上收入国家 54 个，他们的增速是 4%。 中等偏下收入国家是 5%，低收入国家是 5%中国过去的十年是 6%。也就是说整个高收入国 家它不但基数高，它占了世界 60%多的 gdpr，且他 ...

下面我们将进入今天上午的第三个环节，是一个圆桌对话。这个圆桌对话我们是非常荣幸邀 请到了两位在投资领域极具影响力的嘉宾。首先我想介绍一下，我们第一位原作嘉宾是高斌 先生。高斌先生是凯丰投资香港 CEO，同时也是清华五道口金融学院的特聘教授。高老师拥 有超过 20 年的全球宏观投资人金融研究与教学经验，更重要的是他的金融实务经验，他曾 经在美银美林等国际知名金融机构任职，积累了丰富的实战经验。在加入这个实物投行之前， 高先生他有着非常深厚的学术造诣，先后在美国北卡罗兰罗莱纳大学商学院金融系任终身教 授。 高先生是本科是毕业于中国科技大学的空间物理专业。我跟高先生的缘分是他也在普林斯顿 大学读过书，但是他很快就转到金融去了，他从普林斯顿的物理硕士转到了纽约大学的金融 学博士。首先让我们掌声有请高斌先生。下一位我也是非常荣幸，我们邀请到了宝盈基金的 有宝盈基金的总经理杨凯先生。杨凯先生在基金领域深耕多年，自 2003 年起就在宝盈基金 历任市场开发部执行总监、研究部总监，自 2 0199 年 3 月起就任宝盈基金的总经理。杨凯 先生的实务经验非常丰富，我每次来深圳都和杨总见面，每次我都学到很多东西。 下面我们掌声有 ...

好，非常高兴在大家知道今天这一次的这个春季策略会是我们中介公司第一次非常高兴。为 什么说呢？我觉得这个时间点就特别好因为年度策略会我们是 11 月中旬到中期策略会大概 是一般是在六月份到中间隔了多长时间？七个月。所以这个季度的春季策略会起到个什么作 用呢？我觉得是承上启下。所以这个时间点开票加上最近是什么，你看市场情绪是很好的， 市场情绪什么这个比较兴奋我觉得这个情况是特别让人欣慰的。此时此刻，大家会问，我前 天我昨天录弇客户还在问，你不是年度观点讲什么？ 你不是讲这个走向半通胀吗？那么走向半通胀现在到了什么情况呢？还是不是走向半通胀 了，到了什么程度呢？我们也看了一下，在我们网页上我们年度报告的主题是叫什么走向半 通胀。直到最近还是有人在我们有客户在不停的点击，再点击这个报告，说明大家还是关注 我们的观点的。所以我也是特别高感谢我们这个客户对我们的信任和支持。所以我今天的报 告的主题，我就是什么半通胀的第一步，也就是说我们这个年度报告的观点是走向半通胀。 那半通胀现在什么程度了呢？ 是不是顺利呢？我的观点是到目前来看是比较顺畅的，尤其是半路上的第一步是比较顺畅的。 我记得我们在写这个年度报告的时候，市场情绪 ...

中金公司 周期半月谈——两会政策背景下周期板块的逻辑 演绎 20250310 摘要 Q&A 两会期间财政政策和货币政策对经济的影响有哪些？ 两会期间，财政政策总体符合市场预期，特别国债从去年（2024 年）的 1 万亿 提升到 1.3 万亿，专项地方债从 3.9 万亿提到 4.4 万亿。这些措施在国债和地 方债层面都有所扩展，对经济有一定刺激作用。预算内的赤字率为 4%，加上特 别国债和专项地方债后的广义赤字率接近 8%，这一水平在中国历史上较高，仅 次于 2020 年疫情爆发时的高位。 财政政策从积极转向更加积极，特别国债重 点支持"两重两轻"，即企业端设备以新换旧和居民端消费品以旧换新，如家 • 中国财政政策转向更加积极，广义赤字率接近 8%，为历史较高水平，重点 支持企业设备更新和居民消费品以旧换新，利好汽车、家电等化工下游行 业，有望推动化工品需求增长。 • 货币政策适度宽松但受汇率约束，未来可能择机降准降息以应对出口下行 和物价风险。居民就业和收入偏弱导致储蓄增加，需进一步提振经济。 • 化工行业资本开支已开始下降，预计 2025 年下半年快速扩张产能步入尾声， 有助于行业景气度回升。能源成本下降缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the integrated machine and AI SoC sectors, particularly in the context of AI model deployment and local data security needs [3][11]. Core Insights - The demand for integrated machines has surged following the release of the Deep Seek AI model, with significant interest from government and enterprise sectors due to their data security requirements [3]. - The integrated machine is designed for AI model applications, effectively shortening deployment cycles and lowering barriers to entry, with a projected demand of 70,000 units in the government and enterprise sectors by 2025, translating to a market size of 54 billion yuan [3][11]. - The Deep Seek distilled small parameter models demonstrate excellent performance on terminal devices, achieving real-time question answering with a 1.5B model and suitable for text summarization and image description with 7B/8B models, requiring a minimum of 4-5GB of memory under INT4 quantization [3][5]. - Domestic computing power is expected to play a crucial role in the integrated machine sector, aligning well with mainstream downstream demands, although challenges in software-hardware collaboration remain [3][7]. - Quantization techniques are highlighted as a means to reduce AI hardware costs by converting model parameters from 16-bit floating-point to 8-bit integers, thus decreasing model size and computational complexity [3][8][9]. - The report notes a significant reduction in AI inference costs, which is driving the trend towards edge computing, with lightweight AI hardware gaining advantages in both edge and cloud environments [3][15]. - In the smart automotive sector, companies are integrating AI technologies to enhance smart cockpit functionalities, with BYD leading the way in adopting new AI chips in its vehicles [3][17]. - The domestic automotive chip sector is making strides, with companies like Yikatong collaborating with Volkswagen to export new SOC chips, indicating a growing acceptance of domestic chips in international markets [3][20]. Summary by Sections Integrated Machines - Integrated machines are tailored for AI model applications, providing a plug-and-play computing solution that meets high data security requirements for sectors like government and finance [4][10]. - The projected demand for integrated machines in the Chinese server market is expected to reach approximately 70,000 units by 2025, with a market potential of 54 billion yuan [11]. AI Model Performance - The Deep Seek distilled models are effective in reducing hardware resource requirements while maintaining performance, making them suitable for various applications [5][16]. Domestic Computing Power - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power in the integrated machine sector, with a need to overcome challenges related to precision support in AI chips [7]. Cost Reduction Techniques - Techniques such as fixed-point quantization are crucial for lowering AI hardware costs and improving overall efficiency [8][9]. Smart Automotive Sector - The integration of AI in smart vehicles is on the rise, with significant advancements in automotive chip technology and collaborations with international partners [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs, due to their technological innovation and market strategies [3][23]. Core Insights - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is undergoing significant transformation driven by advancements in AI and robotics, enhancing product capabilities and expanding application scenarios [3][4]. - The global market size for robotic vacuum cleaners is estimated to be around $7 to $8 billion, with a notable 40% year-on-year growth in the domestic retail market, reaching approximately 20 billion yuan [3][6]. - Leading companies like Stone Technology are expected to see revenue growth of 40%-50% in 2025, with a projected revenue close to 18 billion yuan and a stable net profit margin of 10%-15% [3][8]. - The market is shifting from a price-driven strategy to a value-for-money approach, with innovations aimed at addressing consumer pain points [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is dominated by key players such as Ecovacs, Stone Technology, and others, while the European market is a battleground for Chinese brands [5][16]. - In North America, the market is shared among Chinese brands and local competitors, with significant room for growth for Chinese brands in offline channels [5][16]. - The global cleaning appliance market is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with robotic vacuum cleaners and stick vacuums showing strong performance [11]. Product Innovation - Innovations in robotic vacuum cleaners focus on enhancing navigation, obstacle avoidance, and cleaning efficiency, transitioning from mere tools to intelligent devices [12][18]. - The introduction of features like mechanical arms and advanced algorithms signifies a shift towards more sophisticated cleaning solutions [13][18]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a dual trend of domestic growth and international market penetration for the robotic vacuum cleaner industry in 2025, with a focus on innovation and value [17][21]. - Companies are expected to continue expanding their product offerings across various price segments to capture a broader market share [20][21].

6 March 2025 | 7:45PM HKT China Brokers & Asset Managers Upgrading brokers earnings on AI and ETF driven trading volume; Prefer CITICS-A, CICC-H, Hundsun Five months after the policy stimulus at end-Sep 2024, A-share ADTV has surged to Rmb 1.9tn (vs. Rmb ~1.1tn in the 2020/2015 upcycles), creating strong upward momentum in trading volumes. We attribute this mainly to 1) increased capital inflows and turnover driven by the AI theme; and 2) continuous surge in ETFs boosting market trading volume. Consequently ...

摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].