证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2026.2.10 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.10 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.10 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing significant volatility, while the bond market is on the rise. Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of clear direction in the market [2][7][10] - The A-share market has seen increased fluctuations, with multiple trading days showing swings exceeding 2%. This is attributed to the collective adjustment of commodity sectors like metals and gold, alongside heightened risk aversion as the year-end approaches [3][10][11] - The report suggests a "wait and see" approach, emphasizing the need for investors to remain cautious as the market seeks a clear leading trend amidst increased volatility and uncertainty due to the upcoming 10-day market closure [3][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing upward momentum due to dual external and internal factors, including the diversion of risk-averse funds from the equity and commodity markets, and a reduction in selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries as the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts [4][31] - Despite the short-term opportunities in the bond market, there are concerns about potential renewed pressure from the equity and commodity markets as the economy continues to recover [5][31] - The recommendation for bond market investment is to focus on short-duration bonds, which may perform better in the current environment of fluctuating interest rates and market conditions [5][31] Group 3 - The commodity market is under pressure, with significant declines led by precious metals, resulting in increased risk levels. Investors are advised to take profits amid heightened volatility, which may deter new external investments [38] - The long-term outlook for the commodity market remains positive, driven by economic recovery and supply-demand dynamics, particularly for gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trajectory [38] - Investment strategies for commodities suggest maintaining positions in gold while avoiding high-risk entries in metals and crude oil, with opportunities for long-term investments during price dips [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation due to the dual weakness in supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the certainty of supply contraction and rigid demand will offset each other, limiting the downward space for coal prices [4][12] - The market for thermal coal is experiencing a supply contraction, with prices showing a slight decline, while the demand remains supported by heating needs due to cold weather [11][12] - The coking coal market is seeing marginal adjustments in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, and the overall supply remains tight [23][24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market is experiencing overall fluctuations, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as funds shift from high-valuation technology and precious metals to low-valuation, high-prosperity sectors like consumption and aviation services [5][36] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 2.41 trillion yuan, indicating high market activity despite increased volatility [5] Thermal Coal - The supply-demand structure for thermal coal is improving, with supply constraints from major production areas due to safety regulations and the upcoming Spring Festival [11][12] - Prices for thermal coal are showing a mixed trend, with slight increases at ports and declines in some production areas [12][13] - The average price for Shanxi Datong thermal coal (Q5500) is 565 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous week [13] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing a mixed price trend, with some prices declining while others remain stable [24][25] - The average price for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal is reported at 1250 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan from the previous week [25] - The overall supply remains tight, with independent coking plants showing a slight increase in operating rates [23][24] Shipping Situation - The shipping situation shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with various routes experiencing slight declines in shipping costs [33] Industry News - Significant collaborations are being established in the coal industry, such as the resource exchange agreement between Shaanxi Coal and Yanchang Petroleum [34] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation towards a dual focus on raw materials and fuel, with policies aimed at controlling coal consumption in key regions [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is leading growth, with smart devices supporting "new quality productivity" as a clear example of China's economic transition towards high-quality development. The growth in these sectors is driven by technological innovation and improvements in total factor productivity [27][30] - The demand for high-performance memory, particularly in AI servers and data centers, is driving a strong upward trend in DRAM prices, indicating a new cycle of prosperity in the storage chip industry [24][29] Industry Data Tracking - Global smartphone shipments reached 336 million units in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.28% [2][18] - Global semiconductor sales amounted to $75.3 billion in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.8% [21][22] - The storage chip industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with DRAM prices rising sharply since June 2025 due to strong demand from AI applications and data centers [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology-intensive sectors such as smart consumer devices and semiconductors, which are becoming core drivers of economic growth in China. The domestic semiconductor industry is making significant strides in design, manufacturing, and equipment, which supports the development of strategic emerging industries like electronic information and artificial intelligence [27][30] - Attention should be given to domestic equipment and materials companies that have entered the mainstream chip manufacturing supply chain, as they are crucial to China's self-sufficiency strategy in the semiconductor sector [27][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is leading growth, with smart devices supporting "new quality productivity" as a clear example of China's economic transition towards high-quality development. The growth in these sectors is driven by technological innovation and improvements in total factor productivity [27][30]. - The report highlights the strong demand for high-performance memory driven by AI servers and new generation PCs, indicating that the storage chip industry is entering a new upcycle [24][29]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.62% to 14205.89 points during the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026. The three major indices showed slight fluctuations but remained above the 10-day moving average, indicating strong short-term support [1][7]. Industry Data Tracking - Global smartphone shipments reached 336 million units in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.28%. However, China's smartphone shipments saw a significant decline of 29.4% year-on-year in December 2025 [18]. - Global semiconductor sales reached $75.3 billion in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.8% [21][22]. - The storage chip industry is experiencing a strong upward trend in DRAM prices since June 2025, driven by robust demand from AI servers and data centers [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology-intensive sectors like smart consumer devices and semiconductors, which are becoming core drivers of economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor companies that have made breakthroughs in design, manufacturing, and equipment [27][30]. - The report recommends paying attention to domestic equipment and materials companies that have entered the mainstream chip manufacturing supply chain, as they are crucial to China's self-sufficiency strategy in the semiconductor industry [30][29]. Industry News - Alibaba's Tsinghua Unigroup launched its high-end AI chip "Zhenwu 810E," which has been deployed in various applications, showcasing advancements in domestic chip technology [30][31]. - Two semiconductor companies announced price increases for their chips due to supply constraints and rising costs, indicating a tightening market [32][33]. - The semiconductor industry chain achieved significant profit growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing profits increasing by 172.6% in 2025 [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market and commodity market experienced a surge followed by a decline, with significant emotional amplification observed. The resource sector became the main focus of the market, leading to increased trading volume, but a subsequent profit-taking wave caused a sharp drop in precious and base metals, impacting the equity market as well [1][8][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with resource sectors like non-ferrous metals and gold taking over as the short-term market leaders. However, the market is cautioned against high-level risks due to the lack of performance support in low-performing sectors like liquor and real estate [2][12][11] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending a focus on sectors that have undergone sufficient corrections, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and communications for the offensive side, while defensive opportunities may be found in dividend-paying sectors like banks [4][13] Group 2 - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, driven by expectations of increased liquidity and a shift of funds seeking safety from the equity market's volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the short term, although long-term challenges remain due to competition for capital from the commodity and equity markets [5][36] - The commodity market is under pressure after a period of rapid growth, with significant corrections observed in precious metals and other commodities. The report warns of potential volatility in the short term but notes that long-term demand for gold and industrial metals remains strong due to technological advancements [6][45][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dual innovation narrative in the equity market, as it is expected to drive future growth amid ongoing liquidity support and a global easing cycle [12][11][13]

证券研究报告——建筑装饰行业周报 建筑业 PMI 下降，板块跑输沪深 300 【2026.1.26-2026.2.1】 行业评级：看好 发布日期：2026.2.3 建筑装饰行情走势图 大同证券研究中心 分析师：张坤飞 执业证书编号：S0770524020001 邮箱：zhangkf@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 基建、地产等投资不及预期；宏观流动性收紧风险；地方融资 平台违约风险；关税影响增强的风险。 核心观点 权益市场涨跌互现，建筑装饰跑输指数。A 股主要指数涨跌互 现，贵金属市场剧烈波动，受美联储主席提名凯文·沃什（被 视为鹰派）影响，纽约黄金单日暴跌超 9%，白银跌幅达 26%， 引发全球杠杆多头集中平仓，国内交易所同步上调交易保证金 比例，短期情绪剧烈震荡。ETF 资金显著分流，周期与商品类 ETF 单周净流入超 600 亿元，沪港深黄金 ETF 领涨；而 A 股大 盘与中小盘 ETF 遭遇巨额赎回，单周净流出近 3000 亿元，显 示资金从宽基指数向主题性资源资产集中。保险板块估值修 复，在"报行合一"政策推动下， ...

证券研究报告——建筑装饰行业周报 建筑业 PMI 下降，板块跑输沪深 300 【2026.1.26-2026.2.1】 行业评级：看好 发布日期：2026.2.3 建筑装饰行情走势图 大同证券研究中心 分析师：张坤飞 执业证书编号：S0770524020001 邮箱：zhangkf@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 基建、地产等投资不及预期；宏观流动性收紧风险；地方融资 平台违约风险；关税影响增强的风险。 核心观点 权益市场涨跌互现，建筑装饰跑输指数。A 股主要指数涨跌互 现，贵金属市场剧烈波动，受美联储主席提名凯文·沃什（被 视为鹰派）影响，纽约黄金单日暴跌超 9%，白银跌幅达 26%， 引发全球杠杆多头集中平仓，国内交易所同步上调交易保证金 比例，短期情绪剧烈震荡。ETF 资金显著分流，周期与商品类 ETF 单周净流入超 600 亿元，沪港深黄金 ETF 领涨；而 A 股大 盘与中小盘 ETF 遭遇巨额赎回，单周净流出近 3000 亿元，显 示资金从宽基指数向主题性资源资产集中。保险板块估值修 复，在"报行合一"政策推动下， ...