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BOSS直聘(BZ):2024Q4业绩点评:春招数据展现积极改善趋势,关注AI赋能催化
东北证券· 2025-03-18 08:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin [9] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.824 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous guidance [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 659 million yuan, up 26.8%, while Non-GAAP net profit was 722 million yuan, an increase of 14.9% [1] - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be between 1.90 billion and 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.5% to 12.7% [1] - The spring recruitment data shows a positive improvement trend, with the number of active job postings and new job postings reaching historical highs [3] - The company continues to invest in AI technology, which is expected to drive cost reduction and new product revenue [3] Financial Summary - In Q4 2024, B-end revenue was 1.804 billion yuan, up 15.2%, with a total of 6.1 million enterprise paying customers, a 17.3% increase [2] - The average monthly active users (MAU) reached 52.7 million, a 27.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin for Q4 2024 was 82.8%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 36.1% [2] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates Non-GAAP operating profits of 3.044 billion, 3.530 billion, and 3.953 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 3.247 billion, 3.630 billion, and 3.990 billion yuan for the same period [3] Market Position - The company has established a competitive advantage in the online recruitment sector through its "mobile + intelligent matching + direct chat" business model [3] - The contribution of key accounts (KA) to B-end revenue increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, with KA customers generating 1.772 billion yuan in revenue, a 40% increase [2]
远东宏信(03360):深度报告:租赁+产业运营:稳健经营,探索出海,提高分红
东北证券· 2025-03-18 01:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Far East Horizon (3360.HK) with a target price of HKD 7.4, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 6.43 [4]. Core Insights - Far East Horizon is a comprehensive group straddling financial and industrial sectors, backed by state-owned enterprises, with a stable shareholding structure and experienced management [1][12]. - The company has diversified its operations from leasing to a comprehensive service provider, with main business segments including financial and consulting services, equipment operation, and hospital operation, contributing 57.5%, 30.68%, and 10.84% to revenue in 2024, respectively [1][13]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% since its listing in 2011, with a notable increase to 56.2% in 2024, and a dividend yield of 9.7%, surpassing the industry average of 6.2% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Far East Horizon operates as an independent business leasing company and is the largest in China, serving over 30,000 clients with a cumulative funding scale of approximately CNY 1 trillion [13]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure with major shareholders including Sinochem Capital Investment Management (21.29%) and others, ensuring strategic consistency [1][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total assets of CNY 360.39 billion and equity of CNY 48.99 billion, with a slight increase in total assets by 2.5% year-on-year [14]. - Revenue from financial and consulting services decreased by 7.1% to CNY 217.06 billion, while equipment operation revenue increased by 20.5% to CNY 115.81 billion [24]. - The overall operating income for 2024 was CNY 400.41 billion, reflecting a decline of 1.43% compared to the previous year [30]. Business Segments - The financial and consulting services segment remains the largest revenue contributor, although its share has decreased, while the equipment operation segment has shown significant growth [24]. - The hospital operation segment reported a revenue of CNY 40.93 billion, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, but with a gross profit increase of 7.5% to CNY 8.09 billion [3][14]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are CNY 385.4 billion, CNY 398.2 billion, and CNY 417.9 billion, with expected growth rates of 2.1%, 3.3%, and 5.0%, respectively [3]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of CNY 40.1 billion, CNY 42.3 billion, and CNY 44.8 billion over the same period, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.87, CNY 0.92, and CNY 0.97 [3].
信达澳亚量化产品简评:领先的投研体系创造稳健超额回报
东北证券· 2025-03-18 01:23
- The quantitative research team of Xinda Aoya has a top-tier member configuration and a leading research system[1][2][3] - The team manages several actively managed equity quantitative products, each with different index tracking characteristics, and all have achieved stable excess returns over various periods[3][13] - The product design fully analyzes the industry distribution, style characteristics, and component features of the tracked index, and explores applicable factors based on the index characteristics[3] - The team combines broader earnings forecast expansion information, uses dynamic weights and machine learning methods to form portfolios, reduces correlation between strategies, and enhances the stability of product excess returns[3][13] - The "index+" products managed by the team have ranked among the top in the market in terms of excess returns since their inception, and their risk-adjusted returns are in the top 20% of similar products[3][13] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Index+ Products** - **Model Construction Idea:** Fully analyze the industry distribution, style characteristics, and component features of the tracked index, and explore applicable factors based on the index characteristics[3] - **Model Construction Process:** Combine broader earnings forecast expansion information, use dynamic weights and machine learning methods to form portfolios, reduce correlation between strategies, and enhance the stability of product excess returns[3][13] - **Model Evaluation:** The "index+" products have achieved stable excess returns and ranked among the top in the market[3][13] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Xinda Multi-Factor CSI 500**, Excess Return: 1.66%, Excess Volatility: 4.65%, Excess Sharpe: 4.64, Annualized Excess: 8.71%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 4/63[14] 2. **Xinda Star Selection CSI 1000**, Excess Return: 0.36%, Excess Volatility: 5.91%, Excess Sharpe: 0.51, Annualized Excess: 13.61%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 18/39[14] 3. **Xinda Core Selection CSI 300**, Excess Return: 1.49%, Excess Volatility: 3.70%, Excess Sharpe: 2.47, Annualized Excess: 4.95%, Excess Sharpe Rank: 14/58[14] 4. **Xinda Star Yuxuan CSI 2000**, Excess Return: 0.37%, Excess Volatility: 8.80%, Excess Sharpe: 0.42, Annualized Excess: 15.68%[14] 5. **Xinda Star Liang CSI 2000**, Excess Return: -2.47%, Excess Volatility: 11.34%, Annualized Excess: 14.80%[14] 6. **Xinda Sci-Tech Innovation 50**, Excess Return: 2.80%, Excess Volatility: 5.39%, Excess Sharpe: 3.56, Annualized Excess: 16.44%[14] 7. **Xinda Dividend Selection CSI Dividend**, Excess Return: 0.09%, Excess Volatility: 2.44%, Excess Sharpe: 0.19, Annualized Excess: 4.88%[14] 8. **Xinda State-Owned Enterprise Selection CSI SOE**, Excess Return: 0.60%, Excess Volatility: 3.15%, Excess Sharpe: 1.14, Annualized Excess: 10.82%[14] 9. **Xinda Ningjun Selection Mixed Fund Index**, Excess Return: -3.87%, Excess Volatility: 5.63%, Annualized Excess: 0.36%[14]
深海科技首次纳入政府工作报告,关注深海科技投资机会
东北证券· 2025-03-17 07:41
[Table_Info1] 国防军工 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-03-17 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业周报 深海科技首次纳入政府工作报告,关注深海科技投资机会 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 板块回顾:上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.57%,上证指数上涨 1.39%,深 证成指上涨 1.24%,创业板指数上涨 0.97%,沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%, 国防军工板块涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 9。截至周五收盘,申 万国防军工板块 PE(TTM)为 68.17 倍,各子板块中航天装备为 109.68 倍, 航空装备为 59.16 倍,地面兵装为 61.96 倍,航海装备为 84.03 倍,军工 电子为 73.09 倍。 持续关注低空经济产业发展机会。亿航智能发布 2024Q4 及全年财报。 2024 年,亿航智能 EH216 系列无人驾驶航空器交付数量达到 216 架, 较 2023 年的 52 架增长 315.4%。总收入为 4.562 亿元,同比增长 288.5%, 首次实现全财年非美国通用会计准则 ...
东北固收专题报告:东盟专题系列2:从泛亚铁路到泛东亚经贸发展
东北证券· 2025-03-17 02:46
[Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 东盟专题系列 2——从泛亚铁路到泛东亚经贸发展 ---东北固收专题报告 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 铁路的建设将会如何改变一个地区的经济格局?泛亚铁路中的中老铁 路可以作为一个观察样本。老挝是东盟唯一的内陆国,长久以来其经 济发展饱受陆锁国之苦,尽管有大量的矿产资源,但苦于没有出海 口,因而无法有效的将矿产资源运输出去、换取发展的资金。但是中 老铁路的建设改变了这一局面。2021 年铁路通车之后,货物运输效率 大幅提升、运输成本降低,老挝也因此有了低成本输出货物换取发展 机会的可能性,经济受益显著。对中国来说,中老铁路的建设也意义 重大。中国在铁矿石、钾肥、橡胶等资源的进口中,可以逐步摆脱对 澳大利亚、加拿大、俄罗斯、泰国和印尼等地区的"单一或高度依 赖",进口来源更加多元化,从而分散风险。某种程度上,中老铁路 对相关国家经贸格局的影响仅仅是一个缩影,后续随着中越铁路、中 泰铁路等线路陆续建成并投入运行,可以想见,中国和越南、中国和 泰国之间的经贸紧密度也将进一步强化。 截至目前,多数东盟国家的对华出口仍与其自身禀赋强相关,后续的看 点在于:随着各国发 ...
数字经济行业周观点:华为中国合作伙伴大会+英伟达GTC大会,AI行业再迎国内外催化-2025-03-17
东北证券· 2025-03-17 02:42
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 华为中国合作伙伴大会+英伟达 GTC 大会,AI 行业再迎国内外催化 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 市场机会分析: 2025 年华为中国合作伙伴大会将于 3 月 20 日至 21 日在深圳国际会展 中心(宝安)举行,主题为 "因聚而生 众智有为",旨在聚合伙伴能力, 加速千行万业数智化转型;同时,英伟达 GTC 2025 大会将于当地时间 3 月 17 日至 21 日在美国加州圣何塞举办。国内外几乎同时举办的两场 大会将同时聚焦 AI 软硬件产业发展,通过对基础硬件设施、大模型本 体、AI 智能体以及各行业应用的讨论,为我们展现未来 1-3 年 AI 领域 的发展趋势。我们坚定看好国内外 AI 产业的发展,两场大会将为 AI 行 业带来更为清晰的未来指引,同时对相关标的带来催化。 相关标的: 合作伙伴:科大讯飞、中软国际、软通动力、常山北明、美林数据、东 软集团 量子计算:国盾量子、神州信息 风险提示:交通信息化、财税改革进展、数据要素政策、信创推进、AI 和国际政治发展不及预期。 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 请务必阅读正文 ...
京东健康(06618):2024财报点评:利润表现超预期,加大投入抢占市场份额
东北证券· 2025-03-17 02:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 58.2 billion (+8.6%) for the full year 2024, with a notable increase in service revenue by 18.9% to 9.4 billion, reflecting a strategic focus on expanding market share [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit reached 4.79 billion (+15.9%), with a significant increase in attributable net profit by 94.3% to 4.16 billion, showcasing strong profitability growth [1][3]. - The company is leveraging AI technology and digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a reduction of administrative costs by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross profit of 13.3 billion (+12.2%) with a gross margin of 22.9% (+0.7 percentage points) in 2024 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 66.9 billion, 76.1 billion, and 86.5 billion respectively, with attributable net profits expected to be 3.59 billion, 4.13 billion, and 4.79 billion [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.12, 1.29, and 1.50 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has expanded its active user base to 184 million (+6.6%), with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of 317 yuan (+2.0%) [1]. - Daily online consultations have exceeded 490,000 (+8.9%), indicating a strong demand for its services [2]. - The integration of AI in healthcare services is expected to open new commercial pathways, particularly in B2B services, under the supportive policy environment for "AI + healthcare" [2].
量化资产配置系列之二:多资产相关性研究
东北证券· 2025-03-17 02:04
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /金融工程研究报告 多资产相关性研究 ---量化资产配置系列之二 报告摘要: 在资产配置研究中,多资产收益间的相关性是控制组合波动的关键,股 票和债券作为两大核心资产,其收益之间的关联性一直都是研究的重点。 本文将从股债相关性切入,搭建适合衡量动态相关性的模型,将其运用 于调整多资产收益协方差矩阵,实现量化资产配置策略的优化。 股票和债券回报之间的相关性对资产配置和风险管理策略实施有着直接 影响,同时一定程度上对应市场环境的变化。在股债相关性预期较高的 时期,投资者可以减少股票和债券之间的对冲效果,适当调整资产权重, 以降低组合风险。相反,如果预期相关性较低,可以增加债券的配置比 例,利用债券的避险属性。 滚动取过去一段窗口期的收益序列,直接计算相关性(RWC),是估计股 债相关性最简单的方式,但弊端也很明显:1)不能充分地体现相关性在 时间序列上的变化,对新信息的反应较为滞后;2)异常的收益数据会导 致估计值出现跳跃式变化,不利于进行趋势分析。 DCC 模型能更好的捕捉相关性的动态变化。作为短期波动的估计, DCC_CORR 日频序列噪音相对较少,受异常值影响小,且 ...
361度(01361):2024年报点评:终端表现领先行业,盈利能力保持稳健
东北证券· 2025-03-13 12:49
[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 终端表现领先行业,盈利能力保持稳健 ---361 度 2024 年报点评 事件: [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年报,全年营收同增 19.6%至 100.7 亿元,净利润同增 19.5%至 11.5 亿元。全年派发普通股股息每股 26.5 港仙,派息比率 45%。 点评: 终端表现持续领先行业。2024 年 Q1 至 Q4,主品牌零售额分别同比增长 高双位数/10%/10%/10%,在整体零售环境仍有一定压力的情况下,公司 终端表现持续领先行业。全年成人鞋类/服装收入分别同比增长 22.1%/15.1%至 42.9/30.9 亿元。此外,2024 年公司童装品牌收入同比增 长 19.5%至 23.4 亿元,占集团营收的 23.2%。童装鞋类/服装收入分别同 比增长 17.5%/22.6%至 11/12.1 亿元。 门店形象持续升级,推出超品店新业态。截至 2024 年末,361 度成人门 店同比净增 16 家至 5750 家。单店面积同比增加 11 平方米至 149 平方 米,第十代终端形象门店持续推 ...
东北固收专题报告:东盟专题系列1:东盟十国经济概述
东北证券· 2025-03-13 05:43
[Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2025-03-13 东盟专题系列 1——东盟十国经济概述 ---东北固收专题报告 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 东盟在地理区位上离中国并不遥远,但人们对它的认知似乎依然是不 足够的。例如,东盟为何会作为一个政治单元而出现?其与欧盟、阿 盟等区域性组织的区别主要体现在什么方面?在面临地区内部的团结 与分离等问题时,为什么东盟可以有比南方共同市场、南非发展共同 体等其他南方国家地区组织更加良好的表现?这些问题值得深思,但 都没有固定的答案。 东盟的批评者常常诟病其为"清谈馆",即"说的比做的多、很少采 取集体行动、缺乏约束力",但似乎正是因为各国之间采取"不干涉 内政、不参与成员国未解决的双边冲突、安静外交与相互尊重容忍" 以及"以协商和共识取代基于多数原则的投票模式"等相处方式,才 得以有可能使这十个并没有太多共性的经济体,被绑定在一起、并且 和平共处超过 56 年——实际上,东盟是极少数自成立以来就没有发生 过正式武装冲突的地区组织,称得上是"和平奇迹"。 站在区域研究的角度,我们对东盟的理解总是习惯于从经济和贸易的 ...