盈利预测：欧洲去库接近尾声，亚非拉市场持续爆发。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年的营业收入分别为 148.4/ 187.3/ 236.0 亿元，2025-2027 年 归母净利润分别为 36.4/ 45.8/ 54.7 亿元，对应 15.63/ 12.41/ 10.40 倍 PE，给予 2025E 的每股净利润 19 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 107 元，首 次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：储能业务进展不及预期；盈利预测与估值模型不及预期 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 新产品+新市场双重赋能，高增长有望持续 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报，德业股份 2024 年实现营业收入 112.06 亿元， 同比+49.83%，实现归母净利润 29.6 亿元，同比+65.29%，基本符合市 场此前预期。 新兴市场助力储能高增长。（1）德业股份 2024 年逆变器业务实现营业 收入 55.6 亿元，同比+25.44%，2024 年公司储能逆变器出货 54.06 万 台，组串式逆变器出货 41.06 万台，微型逆变器 42.03 万台。逆变器 业务 ...

[Table_Info1] 长源东谷(603950) 汽车 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-08 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 传统业务稳健深耕，新能源业务蓬勃发展 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年公司实现营业收 入 19.20 亿元，同比+30.38%，实现归属于母公司净利润 2.30 亿元，同 比+5.37%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 5.01 亿，同比+20.52％，实 现归母净利润 0.78 亿，同比+65.80％。 点评： 双轨驱动核心零部件业务，智能升级与新能源拓展创营收新高。2024 年，公司在传统商用车领域拓展工程机械、船用等新客户，同时新能源 混动缸体缸盖销量大幅增长至 54.5 万套，并通过智能工厂升级、成本 优化等措施实现营收历史新高，推进传统能源与新能源业务并行发展。 新能源爆发驱动增长，双轨战略稳步拓展市场。2024 年公司营收同比 增长 30.38%，达 19.2 亿元，创历史新高。增长主因是新能源混动业务 的爆发，比 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 Q1 销售实现开门红，期待全年业绩回暖 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报：2024 年实现营收 59.12 亿元， 同比-13.98%，归母净利润-0.85 亿元，同比转亏；2025 年一季度实现营 收 9.33 亿元，同比+9.58%，归母净利润-0.25 亿元，亏损大幅度收窄。 稳健跨过行业低谷，新品推广卓有成效。2024 年受水产品市场低迷以及 极端天气等影响，养殖户投苗积极性较弱，致使水产饲料需求下降。公 司 2024 年实现饲料销量 78.71 万吨，同比下降 9.6%。面对行业低景气， 公司通过加大产品研发创新、丰富产品品类、深化经营管理变革等措施 积极应对。报告期内，公司通过研发创新实现饲料的转化率与利用率双 增长，进一步增强产品市场竞争力。同时，公司加速新产品开发力度， 并采用原料替代与工艺升级实现降本增效；推进营销管理变革，优化业 务管理结构与激励方案，激发团队活力。2024 年公司在新品推广上颇有 建树，罗非鱼料、海鲈料、生鱼料等饲料品种同比实现 15%-40%的增长。 推进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.97%, and a net profit of 0.71 billion yuan, up 15.82% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume of nucleating agents increased by 26.53% in 2024, contributing to the company's historical high performance across various metrics [1]. - The domestic substitution process for nucleating agents is expected to accelerate due to tariff countermeasures, with the import substitution rate projected to rise from 30% in 2023 to 34% in 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.82 billion yuan, a 10.31% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.68% growth [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.10 billion yuan, 3.74 billion yuan, and 4.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.83X, 18.09X, and 16.29X [2][3]. - The company's design capacity for nucleating agents reached 25,760 tons by the end of 2024, with significant production capacity expansions planned [1]. Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire at least 51% of Yingri Technology, which specializes in high-performance sputtering targets, aiming for synergies in customer resources and brand influence [2].

证券研究报告 5、短期利率可能有一些交易盘止盈的影响，但是大方向上积极看多仍然 逻辑顺畅，回调后采用久期策略积极左侧布局仍然可为。基本面在看到 冲击回落过后的趋势性好转之前仍然没必要对债市过分看空。中美谈判 短期对黄金有情绪扰动，但央行购金逻辑仍然有较强支撑，近期黄金的 阶段性回调不是趋势反转，反而可能提供了一个倒车接人的机会。 大类资产隐含的经济增长预期 相关报告 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 19/01 19/04 19/07 19/10 20/01 20/04 20/07 20/10 21/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 股债汇商大类资产隐含的经济增长预期 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 双降落地后，债市怎么看？ ——2025 年 5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长潘功 胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, upgraded from a previous "Hold" rating [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.11 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The energy storage business experienced explosive growth, with revenue reaching 3.02 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 184% year-on-year, contributing to 12.2% of total revenue [3]. - The company optimized its traditional business structure, maintaining stable revenue contributions from charging products while expanding its global reach, covering 146 countries and regions [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 43.3%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 8.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 33.6%, 27.7%, and 23.6% respectively, with net profit growth projected at 28.9%, 23.8%, and 22.8% [5]. - The financial summary indicates a total revenue of 33.01 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 2.73 billion yuan [6][12]. Business Development - The company’s charging product revenue remains stable, with new product iterations like GaN fast charging and wireless car charging maintaining higher average selling prices [4]. - The online sales channel accounted for 71% of total revenue in 2024, with significant contributions from platforms like Amazon [4]. - The company is leveraging its supply chain flexibility in emerging markets to mitigate trade policy risks, indicating potential for growth in regions like Southeast Asia and Australia [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its core business, particularly in the intelligent transmission sector, with a comprehensive product lineup including harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and planetary reducers. This positions the company well to meet diverse customer needs and enhance integration efficiency [9]. - The humanoid robot business is progressing well, with plans to invest 200 million in a new precision component production line, aiming to capitalize on the expected growth in the humanoid robot market [9]. - Financial forecasts predict the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 0.85 billion, 1.09 billion, and 1.33 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 161.75, 126.41, and 103.30 [9]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,086 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.99%. However, a decline of 10.10% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with projected growth rates of 13.01%, 12.88%, and 12.96% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 73 million, with a slight increase of 10.22%. The forecast for 2024 shows a minor decline of 0.82%, but significant growth is expected in the following years [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.48, projected to increase to 0.56 in 2025, 0.72 in 2026, and 0.88 in 2027 [2]. Product Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.45 billion from deceleration motors, a slight increase of 0.78%, while precision reducers generated 2.43 billion, up by 1.07%. However, the intelligent execution units saw a significant decline in revenue by 23.65% [3]. - The gross margin improved to 29.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.24 percentage points, indicating effective cost management despite a slight revenue decline [3]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the rapidly growing humanoid robot market, with expectations of reaching one million units by 2027. The current global production capacity for harmonic reducers is insufficient to meet demand, suggesting a strategic advantage for the company as it expands production [9].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业动态报告 投资支撑营收，息差降幅收窄 ---上市银行 2025Q1 业绩综述 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 2025Q1 营业收入与归母净利润小幅下滑。2025 年一季度，42 家上市银 行共实现营业收入 1.45 万亿元，同比下降 1.72%。实现归母净利润 5639.79 亿元，同比下降 1.20%。 投资收益快速增长，占比营收提升明显。2025 年一季度，42 家上市银行 共实现利息净收入、手续费及佣金净收入、投资收益分别为 1.02 万亿元 （yoy-1.65%）、0.23 万亿元（yoy-0.72%）、0.17 万亿元（yoy+26.10%）， 占营收比例分别为 70.80%、15.67%、11.62%，较上年末分别提升 0.05、 0.16、2.56 个百分点。拨备计提减少释放利润，但降幅收窄。2025 年一 季度，上市银行资产减值损失为 3471.34 亿元，同比下降 2.37%，补偿了 利润，但降幅较上年全年收窄 3.61 个百分点。 信贷规模稳步增长，增速企稳。截至 2025 年一季度末，42 家上市银行 贷款及垫款总规模为 1 ...

[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-06 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价 核心观点： [Table_Summary] 金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多。1）关税相关信息仍导致金价持续 波动：一方面是贸易紧张情绪继续缓和，4/28 贝森特继续向市场传递出 "将与多国达成协议以及有望与中国开启贸易谈判"的讯号，5/2 中国商 务部则表示"美方近期通过相关方面主动向中方传递信息希望谈判，对 此中方正在进行评估"，贸易紧张情绪缓和，使得金价承压。但另一方面， 关税的不确定性远未结束：首先，日美第二轮谈判仍然缺乏实质进展， 5/2 日本首相石破茂表示绝对不会接受对汽车加征关税（日美谈判核心议 题）；日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正在谈判中表示对美方关税政策感到 遗憾并强烈要求美方重新考虑；日本财务大臣加藤胜信则暗示日本持有 美债或可作为谈判筹码；其次，5/5 特朗普宣布对电影行业加征 100%关 税再度引发市场担忧，同时特朗普 NBC 专访报道也显示其仍然维持对 中国较为强硬的关税立场。2）近期美国部分经济数据也开始令市场有 ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 预调酒短期承压，烈酒业务有望突破 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。 2024 年实现营业收入 30.48 亿元，同比下降 6.61%；归母净利润 7.19 亿 元，同比下降 11.15%。2025 年一季度实现营业收入 7.37 亿元，同比下 降 8.11%；归母净利润 1.81 亿元，同比增长 7.03%，2025Q1 利润增长好 于收入增长。 点评： 2024 年经营承压。分产品来看，预调鸡尾酒业务 2024 全年实现营业收 入 26.77 亿元，同比下降 7.17%，产品结构上移叠加原材料成本下降，毛 利率同比提升 2.42%。食用香精业务全年实现营收 3.37 亿元，同比增长 6.30%，增长较为稳定，毛利率同比提升 1.48%。分区域来看，华东/华南 /华北/华西地区营收分别为 10.15/9.3/5.56/5.13 亿元，分别同比- 6.84%/0.41%/-7.29%/-12.37%，华西地区下滑较为明显。受产品生命周期 影响，鸡尾酒产品 ...