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沃什不是牛市拐点,且待情绪休整
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-02 06:12
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rise followed by a sharp decline due to market sentiment and external factors, but the nomination of Waller is not seen as a turning point for the market [2][12] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, supported by strong fundamentals and low inventory levels, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy for copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium prices have been declining, but demand is expected to increase due to new policies and seasonal factors, indicating potential for future price support [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold: After a rapid increase, gold prices faced a sharp drop, but the overall upward trend remains intact for long-term investors [2][12] - Copper: The extreme market sentiment has subsided, and the fundamentals for copper remain strong, suggesting a hold on copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium: Inventory levels are decreasing, and new demand drivers are emerging, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4][14] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.70%, outperforming the market by 4.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [16] - Top performers in the non-ferrous metals sector included gold, copper, and lead-zinc, with individual stocks like Hunan Gold showing significant gains [16][22] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - New energy metals: Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices decreased significantly [23][24] - Base metals: Domestic prices for copper, aluminum, and zinc rose, while lead prices slightly declined [33][35] - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gold down 4.7% and silver down 22.5% [47][48]
3D打印材料具备成长性,关注国内企业突破
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-02 06:12
请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 [Table_Info1] 机械设备 [Table_Date] 发布时间:2026-02-02 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 3D 打印材料具备成长性,关注国内企业突破 [Table_Summary] 3D 材料是 3D 打印的重要基础,主要包括金属和非金属两类。原材料主 要包括金属增材制造材料、无机非金属增材制造材料、有机高分子增材 制造材料以及生物增材制造材料等几类。我国 3D 打印材料中,金属类 材料占 39%,非金属材料占 61%左右。钛合金、PLA、尼龙、ABS、铝 合金、不锈钢等材料应用较多。 3D 打印材料市场有望超过 500 亿,金属打印粉末值得重视。2019 年, 中国 3D 打印材料产业规模达 40.94 亿元,比 2018 年增长 26.2%。根据 Mordor Intelligence 数据,2025 年 3D 打印材料市场规模约 30 亿美元, 2030 年有望超过 80 亿美元,叠加 3D 打印技术持续突破,商业航天等产 业推动,未来行业有望进入加速发展阶段。根据法国 3D 打印公司 Sculpteo 调研数据,金属 3D 打印产业发展较快, ...
星宇股份(601799):基本面保持良好,Micro-LED车载应用加速推进
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-02 05:12
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 基本面保持良好,Micro-LED 车载应用加速推进 [Table_Summary] 基本面保持良好,盈利与现金流具备支撑能力。2025 年前三季度实现营 业收入 107.10 亿元,同比增长 16.09%;归母净利润 11.41 亿元,同比增 长 16.76%,扣非后净利润同比增长 19.90%,盈利能力持续改善。同时, 经营活动现金流净额达 17.71 亿元,同比大幅增长 301%,现金回笼能力 显著增强,反映主营业务运行健康、订单兑现能力较强。在研发端,公 司前三季度研发投入 6.41 亿元,占收入比重持续提升,为车灯智能化及 前沿技术布局提供稳定支撑。 车灯技术升级持续推进,全球客户与产能布局不断完善。公司在车灯技 术路径上,围绕 DLP、Micro-LED、Mini-LED、OLED 等方向推进智能 前 照 灯 、 像 素 化 显 示 灯 及 数 字 格 栅 等 产 品 研 发 , 并 同 步 完 善 HCM/RCM/LCU/LDM 等车灯驱动与控制器体系,推动车灯产品向具备 更高精度控制与显示能力的系统化方向升级。在客户与布局层面,公司 ...
2026W05房地产周报:1月楼市表现如何?-20260202
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-02 03:43
Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization with various supportive policies being implemented by the central and local governments, which is expected to enhance market confidence [17] - New home sales are relatively flat, but leading real estate companies are demonstrating resilience, with the top three companies showing slight year-on-year sales growth [14] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume, with a year-on-year growth of 37.5% in 16 sample cities [15] - The average price decline of second-hand homes is slowing down, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [16] - The report anticipates that 2026 will see more favorable policies aimed at supporting the real estate market, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [18] Market Performance - In January 2026, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was approximately 178.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year decline, consistent with the overall trend for the year [14] - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market with a decline of 2.21%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with a gain of 5.71% [19][32] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds decreased significantly, with a net financing amount of -95.854 billion yuan in the week ending January 30, 2026 [19][38] REITs Market - The REITs index increased by 0.51% this week, with the property REITs index rising by 0.33% and the operating rights REITs index increasing by 0.74% [40][44] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 1.452 billion yuan, with property REITs accounting for 744 million yuan of this total [53] - Over the past month, the REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.65 percentage points [50]
信维通信(300136):泛射频解决方案提供商,多领域布局未来可期
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 14:58
[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司深度报告 泛射频解决方案提供商,多领域布局未来可期 报告摘要: [Table_Summary] 全球领先的一站式泛射频解决方案提供商。信维通信是国内小型天线行 业发展的领跑者,主要致力于研发和生产移动通信设备终端各类型天线, 包括手机天线/GPS/WIFI/手机电视/无线网卡/AP 天线等。公司积极围绕 射频技术,拓展高性能射频连接器及为解决整机 EMC/EMI 的精密五金 部件、LDS 产品、音频产品及音/射频模组等,新材料天线零部件如 NFC、 无线充电、无线支付模组等新品已批量交货。公司业务多元布局,正加 速迈向"消费电子+卫星通信+智能汽车+N"的多业务发展阶段。 消费电子业务进展迅速。公司消费电子行业产品包括天线系列、被动元 件、无线充电、接触类弹片、精密连接器等,可应用于手机、电脑、平 板、VR/AR 设备等。公司自主研发的 LCP 天线模组已服务北美大客户; 天线业务继续保持市场领先;无线充电业务受益于智能手机、可穿戴设 备及智能汽车对无线充电模块、特别是支持 Qi2.x 等标准的无线充电模 块的快速渗透有望快速增长;精密结构件业务随着客户新机型 ...
优刻得(688158):全栈云计算布局,AI智算平台为新增长
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 14:58
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's public cloud business shows steady growth, with hybrid and private cloud segments performing exceptionally well. The product matrix includes computing, networking, storage, databases, and cloud security, catering to various sectors such as mobile internet, entertainment, education, finance, and government [1]. - The AI computing platform and overseas expansion are driving growth, with a clear strategic layout. The "Kongming" AI computing platform supports diverse GPU access and offers distributed training capabilities, while the UModelVerse platform allows quick AGI application setup [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.84 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.66 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be -76 million, 28 million, and 95 million yuan respectively, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.515 billion yuan, with a decline of 23.17% from the previous year. However, a recovery is expected with a growth rate of 22.42% in 2025 [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from -16.0% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 17.12 billion yuan, with a share price range of 16.60 to 40.10 yuan over the past 12 months [5].
上海港湾(605598):主业聚焦出海,卫星能源系统明珠
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 14:57
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78 yuan per share, based on a 9x price-to-book ratio for 2026 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company focuses on geotechnical engineering services and has a strong presence in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which are seen as new growth engines [1][16]. - The company has successfully completed over 800 geotechnical projects globally, including significant projects in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, enhancing its brand influence and market share [16][18]. - The company is investing in satellite energy systems through its subsidiaries, aiming to create a second growth curve in the space photovoltaic sector, which is projected to reach a market size of 600 billion yuan by 2032 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Engineering Business Focused on Overseas Expansion - The company has been deepening its overseas market layout for 17 years, with a focus on sustainable development and expanding its service capabilities globally [16][18]. - It has established a strong foothold in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with notable projects like the Kalibaru Port Project in Indonesia, valued at 285 million yuan [1][32]. 2. Satellite Energy Business Development - The company is building a satellite energy business matrix through investments in subsidiaries, aiming to leverage its expertise in satellite energy systems and flexible solar wings [3][21]. - The subsidiaries have made significant progress in on-orbit testing of perovskite solar cells, demonstrating stable voltage outputs [3][37]. 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects steady growth in its main business, with projected net profits of 151 million yuan, 227 million yuan, and 301 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][29]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 1.39 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.28 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.61% [4][29].
华光新材(688379):液冷板焊接材料稀缺标的,业绩逐步释放
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 14:41
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 165 million to 195 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 104.67% to 141.88% [1]. - The company has made significant advancements in welding technology, particularly in the AI server liquid cooling sector, which is anticipated to drive substantial revenue growth [2]. - The liquid cooling business is projected to see a rapid increase in revenue, with electronic sector revenue expected to grow over 100% year-on-year, driven by the AI liquid cooling segment [2]. - The company has diversified its applications into optical modules and robotics, enhancing its market position and growth potential [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.5 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 169 million, 196 million, and 256 million yuan [4]. - The company’s earnings per share are forecasted to be 1.87 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.84 yuan by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 28.41, 24.54, and 18.72 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].
宏观周报20260131:“多杀多”式暴跌后,大宗前景分析-20260201
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 11:13
---宏观周报 20260131 [Table_Summary] 首先要明确:沃什只是一个表面原因,深层原因是盘面前些日子的加速, 催化了"多杀多"局面的到来。 (1)沃什的岳父和特朗普是好朋友,有非常深厚的共和党人脉,我相信 特朗普敢选他上来,他大概率还是会为特朗普降息的。至于缩表,我觉 得更像是他丢给市场的人设(美元和美债的表现来看,市场也确实买单), 但真的要缩表,还是面临现实制约的(需要保证商业银行的充足准备金 体系)。这也是为什么美联储在去年 12 月停止缩表,甚至做 RMPs 来补 充流动性。 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /宏观月度 "多杀多"式暴跌后,大宗前景分析 报告摘要: (2)这轮行情极致反转的本质是"空头的枯竭=多头的极限"。商品是对 手方成交,没有空头,多头无法成交。空头是价格上涨趋势中的"燃料", 这也是为什么说"空头不死,涨势不止"。但随着价格的持续高涨,空头 越来越少,价格的上涨变得逐渐不可持续。所以我们会看到一个低成交 量就能带来一个很大的涨幅(因为上面空头的挂单越来越稀薄了)。这也 是为什么行情加速=尾声。这种情况下,多头只能寻求主动回调来吸引空 头进场,只有经 ...
冻干食品行业深度:内需释放新动能,供应链创新驱动未来
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2026-01-29 08:25
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" based on the growth potential and market dynamics observed in the freeze-dried food sector [3]. Core Insights - The freeze-dried food industry in China is entering a high-growth phase, with the market size expected to grow from 0.848 billion RMB in 2014 to 3.8 billion RMB by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.1% [2][26]. - The global freeze-dried food market is projected to reach USD 30.43 billion by 2024 and USD 56.27 billion by 2034, indicating a robust growth trajectory driven by health-conscious consumer trends and the rise of outdoor activities [2][12]. - China's freeze-dried food consumption is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential as domestic demand is expected to be a key driver for the industry [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development and Market Dynamics - The freeze-dried food market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration, export-driven growth, and recent domestic demand-driven expansion [21][23]. - The technology behind freeze-drying preserves over 95% of nutrients, making it a preferred choice for health-conscious consumers [15][18]. - The industry is characterized by low penetration rates in China compared to developed markets, suggesting a significant opportunity for growth as consumer awareness and demand increase [27][32]. 2. Global Market Trends - The global freeze-dried food market is expanding, with Asia as a major supplier and Europe and North America as key consumers [2][12]. - Freeze-dried fruits hold the largest market share, followed by meat, seafood, and vegetables, indicating diverse product opportunities [2][12]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting from a focus on single product categories to multi-scenario applications, with companies diversifying their offerings to include ready-to-eat meals and snacks [38][44]. - Major players in the industry include both international brands like Nestlé and domestic leaders such as Three Squirrels and Good Products, reflecting a fragmented market structure [46]. 4. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The industry is supported by a robust policy framework aimed at ensuring food safety and promoting technological advancements, which are crucial for high-quality development [49][50]. - Recent regulations encourage the use of freeze-drying technology in high-end food products, particularly for infant nutrition, highlighting the government's support for this sector [49].