Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026 [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to fundamental narratives in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The sector is still in a deposit repricing cycle, which is likely to stabilize net interest margins. Structural risks are anticipated to be supported by policy measures [3][32] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with confirmed fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][32] Summary by Sections Impact of Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement on Interbank Liquidity - Corporate foreign exchange settlement has increased due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB, with a record high of USD 99.9 billion in December 2025. The strong RMB trend is expected to maintain high settlement levels throughout 2026 [8][11] - The settlement process involves two stages: 1. Corporates settle with commercial banks, leading to a decrease in foreign currency deposits and a corresponding decrease in excess reserves. This results in an increase in RMB deposits and a need for banks to match more statutory reserves, which may reduce excess reserves [10][13] 2. If commercial banks settle with the central bank, it results in a decrease in foreign currency assets and an increase in excess reserves, thereby injecting liquidity into the market [10][13] Current Liquidity Conditions - Current liquidity is relatively loose, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity and stable growth in deposits. Concerns about deposit disintermediation have not materialized, and the overall disintermediation pressure remains moderate [26][32] - The central bank has net injected CNY 1 trillion in medium- and long-term funds through various operations, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [15][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Copper concentrate is expected to be included in the strategic reserve scope, enhancing the status of key metals [8] - The global average copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained tight supply trend, which may further elevate copper's status as a critical metal [8] - The "anti-involution" policy in copper smelting remains unchanged, with expectations for copper prices and smelting fees to rise in the medium term [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The copper resource reserve system is being improved, with plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms. The import dependency of domestic copper concentrate has reached 75%, indicating a need for enhanced supply chain security [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major copper mining companies have reported a decline in copper production due to falling ore grades. The insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies and the decreasing rate of significant copper resource discoveries suggest that supply will not increase significantly in the medium term. Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors and emerging fields like renewable energy is expected to grow [8] Policy and Market Trends - The domestic copper smelting capacity is being strictly controlled, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects halted. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually show effects in the next two to three years, leading to a potential upward correction in smelting fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its large resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [8] - For copper smelting, attention is drawn to Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is expected to benefit from increased copper concentrate self-sufficiency and improved spot smelting fee expectations. Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) is also mentioned [8]

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 风物长宜放眼量 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2026 年第 5 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 金银比突破 50，贵金属有望带领工业金属 加 速 上 涨 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 （2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market adjustment pressure has been released, leading to a rebound, with popular sectors experiencing valuation recovery [6] - It maintains a cautiously optimistic view for February, suggesting that while the A-share index may struggle, there is potential for valuation recovery in the H-share market [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the agricultural sector, as they are expected to continue performing well due to their risk characteristics [6] Group 2 - The renewable energy sector is highlighted as a cornerstone for carbon reduction, with significant growth expected in wind and solar installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The report anticipates over 50% growth in energy storage installations by 2025, driven by high demand in the renewable energy sector [3] - It suggests focusing on high-growth technology-related stocks within the renewable energy space [3] Group 3 - The report discusses the increasing certainty of mass production for humanoid robots, particularly with Tesla's advancements in this area [4] - It identifies investment opportunities in components related to robotics, such as sensors and flexible protective layers, as the industry moves towards more human-like robots [4] - Companies with proven manufacturing and management capabilities in automotive and machinery parts are expected to gain higher market shares [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.84 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to intensified competition and policy impacts, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][10]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has significant long-term growth potential driven by self-research and innovation transformation [4][10]. - The company is expected to leverage its integrated service capabilities in contract research and development (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) to enhance its business structure and return to a growth trajectory [10]. - The company has a robust pipeline of self-researched products, with 132 projects under development, including 37 approved projects, which are anticipated to contribute positively to future revenues [10]. - The company is actively transitioning to innovative drug development, with 15 ongoing projects in critical therapeutic areas, which could provide a second growth curve through partnerships and milestone payments [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 1,017 million CNY in 2023 to 696 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [6][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be a loss of 53 million CNY in 2024, with a gradual return to profitability by 2026 [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to -0.63 CNY in 2025, before recovering to 0.37 CNY in 2026 and 0.61 CNY in 2027 [6][12]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease from 65.5% in 2023 to 52.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery thereafter [6][12].

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, with a focus on price increases in the chemical and agricultural sectors [6][27] - Liquidity expectations are shifting, leading to increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, while the demand for industrial products driven by AI capital expenditure is expected to support price increases in cyclical goods [6][27] - Agricultural products are anticipated to experience a comprehensive price increase due to upstream price transmission and a tight supply-demand balance in major commodities like sugar, corn, and oilseeds [12][27] Group 2 - The trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable [17][27] - The trend for mid-cap blue chips related to cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals) remains strong, while media and defense industries are showing strengthening trends [20][27] - Short-term uncertainty is rising for non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, while medium-term uncertainty for basic chemicals is stable and for agriculture is declining [23][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.84 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to intensified competition and policy impacts, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][10]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has significant long-term growth potential driven by self-research and innovation transformation [4][10]. - The company is expected to leverage its integrated service capabilities in contract research and development (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) to enhance its business structure and return to a growth trajectory [10]. - The company has a robust pipeline of self-researched products, with 132 projects under development, including 37 approved products, which are anticipated to contribute to stable revenue growth as they enter commercialization [10]. - The company is actively transitioning to innovative drug development, with 15 ongoing projects in key therapeutic areas, which could provide a second growth curve through partnerships and milestone payments [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 1,017 million CNY in 2023 to 696 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 889 million CNY by 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn negative in 2024 and 2025, with forecasts of -53 million CNY and -69 million CNY respectively, before recovering to 67 million CNY in 2027 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.63 CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 0.61 CNY by 2027 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 65.5% in 2023 to 52.0% in 2024, before gradually improving to 56.4% by 2027 [6].

基金研究 | 专题报告 沃土生金春潮起，农业擎旗续周期 行业 ETF 配置系列报告之一 研究结论 风险提示 宏观经济与产业政策变化超预期风险、主题炒作风险、量化模型滞后性风险等。本报告 结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计算，对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分析结论并不 预示其未来表现，也不能保证未来的可持续性，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 本报告不涉及证券投资基金评价业务，不涉及对基金产品的推荐，亦不涉及对任何指数 样本股的推荐。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | 东春鸣 | 执业证书编号：S0860525100002 | dongchunming@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | 王继恒 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090004 | | wangjiheng@orientsec.com.cn | 0755-82819271 | | 主动权益基金仓位跟踪周报(20260130) 2026-02-02 主动权益基金仓位跟踪周报(20260123) 2026-01-26 多视角看近期 ETF 市场持续放量现象 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant commercial value of extrahepatic delivery technology for small nucleic acid drugs, which is expanding from liver diseases to multiple disease areas. Domestic companies are rapidly developing multi-target drugs and extrahepatic delivery platforms, which are expected to accelerate the release of potential clinical value [3][8] - The report emphasizes that multinational corporations (MNCs) are intensifying their focus on next-generation delivery platforms, moving from "liver validation" to "multi-organ expansion." This shift is crucial as it addresses unmet clinical needs in various tissues such as fat, muscle, central nervous system, heart, and kidneys [8] - The report indicates that 2026 is a pivotal year for small nucleic acid therapies, with domestic innovative drugs expected to become core assets for transactions. Domestic companies have accumulated rich experience in chemical modifications and liver-targeted delivery technologies, covering high-value areas such as hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hepatitis B, and weight loss [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China, specifically on small nucleic acid drugs and their evolving delivery technologies [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report lists several investment targets, including: - YK Pharma (688658, Buy) - Hengrui Medicine (600276, Buy) - Xinda Biopharma (01801, Not Rated) - Other companies such as Chengdu XianDao (688222, Not Rated), Reborn Biotech (06938, Not Rated), and others [3]