Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving a persistent shortage in storage [2][8] - Major storage companies are showing strong performance, with AI demand expected to continue creating incremental opportunities [6] - The supply of niche storage is expected to remain tight due to pressure from mainstream storage products [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include domestic storage chip design companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin, Beijing Junzheng, and Hengsuo [2][8] - Domestic storage module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage are also highlighted [2] - Companies benefiting from storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology, and Aojie Technology [2] - Semiconductor equipment firms such as Zhongwei Company, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang are recommended [2] - Domestic packaging and testing companies like Shentek, Huicheng, and Tongfu Microelectronics are included [2] - Supporting logic chip manufacturers such as Jinghe Integration are also mentioned [2] Market Dynamics - TrendForce has revised upward the price growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash products for the first quarter, with DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 90-95% and NAND Flash by 55-60% [7] - AI computing demand is becoming the dominant factor in storage demand, with significant price increases expected for server DRAM and Enterprise SSDs [7] - The AI inference process is anticipated to change data center storage structures, leading to increased demand for active data storage [7] Niche Storage Outlook - Niche storage products like NOR Flash and MLC/SLC NAND Flash are expected to remain in short supply due to reduced production from major suppliers focusing on mainstream products [7] - The global capacity for MLC NAND Flash is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to supply constraints [7]

资产配置 | 定期报告 提名沃什不改美元信用弱化格局 20260202 多资产配置周报 研究结论 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | --- | --- | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current trend of the convertible bond market depends on the underlying stocks. Despite a significant pullback in equities this week, the market's expectation of a slow bull market remains unchanged. With high convertible bond valuations, the probability of active valuation reduction is low. After the correction, opportunities outweigh risks. The share trend of convertible bond ETFs shows continuous net inflows since 2026, accelerating this week, indicating strong willingness of funds to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the large number of convertible bonds triggering early redemption in the coming week to prevent individual bond clause risks [6][9]. - The view on convertible bonds remains unchanged. As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, the convertible bond market enters deep - water territory. High valuations are expected to persist in an equity bull market. Currently, trading opportunities far exceed allocation opportunities. Technical indicators should be appropriately considered. When the overall premium rate is too high, its reference significance decreases, and the importance of the remaining term increases. It is recommended to focus on newly issued convertible bonds, those with redemption waivers, and those whose shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6][9]. - Overseas geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased, with Trump indicating plans to dialogue with Iran, reducing the expectation of geopolitical conflict escalation. Coupled with the disturbance of the Federal Reserve Chairman selection event, and domestic regulators continue to release the expectation of a slow - bull market, with policies guiding and supporting sectors such as hard - tech and consumption. The technology growth sector has oscillated and consolidated with the broader market. After continuous increases, non - ferrous metals and safe - haven assets have also experienced significant pullbacks. In the context of global risk assessment differentiation, the stable domestic and volatile overseas environment is beneficial to domestic assets. Foreign capital inflows are expected. Sideways oscillations with a slight upward trend remain the main tone, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks will become the mainstay in the future [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Viewpoint: Find Trading Opportunities in the Deep - water Area of Convertible Bonds during Corrections - The current trend of the convertible bond market is mainly determined by the underlying stocks. After the equity pullback this week, the slow - bull market expectation remains. High - valuation convertible bonds are less likely to see active valuation reduction. After the correction, opportunities are greater than risks. The continuous net inflow of convertible bond ETFs since 2026, accelerating this week, shows strong buying - on - dips sentiment. Be cautious of individual bond clause risks due to a large number of convertible bonds triggering early redemption next week [6][9]. - As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, the market enters deep - water territory. High valuations will continue in the equity bull market. Trading opportunities are more prominent than allocation opportunities. Pay attention to technical indicators, and the remaining term becomes more important when the overall premium rate is high. Focus on newly issued convertible bonds, those with redemption waivers, and those with non - reduced shareholder holdings [6][9]. - Overseas geopolitical tensions ease, and domestic policies support hard - tech and consumption. The technology growth sector oscillates with the market, and non - ferrous metals and safe - haven assets pull back. The stable domestic and volatile overseas environment is favorable for domestic assets, with expected foreign capital inflows. The slow - bull pattern remains, and mid - cap blue - chips will play a key role [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Slight Decline in Convertible Bond Trading Volume and Significant Compression of Valuations 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Close Lower, with Slight Increase in Trading Volume - The equity market is under pressure this week, with more obvious adjustments in small - and medium - cap and growth styles. Market sentiment is cautious, and funds are flowing towards low - volatility and defensive sectors. The CSI 300 rises 0.08%, and the SSE 50 rises 1.13%, while other major indexes such as the SSE Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index decline to varying degrees. In terms of industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, and coal lead the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, and the automobile sector lead the losses. The average daily trading volume increases slightly by 262.499 billion yuan to 3.06 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week are Lianrui Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Baichuan Convertible Bond 2, etc. In terms of trading volume, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond are more active [12]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declines, and Low - priced, High - rated Convertible Bonds Have Smaller Declines - Convertible bonds decline significantly this week, with the 100 - yuan premium rate also significantly compressed. The average daily trading volume decreases slightly to 8.4571 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index drops 2.61%, the median conversion price drops 2.1% to 108.4 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rises slightly by 0.2% to 32.4%. In terms of style, low - priced and high - rated convertible bonds have smaller declines, while high - priced convertible bonds perform poorly [18].

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120002 | | | lanyang@orientsec.com ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120 ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 物价回升：这次不一样——"通往再平衡 之路"系列之三 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"力度超预期，收缩效应大于消费改善幅度的风险。 目 录 | 历史上的 PPI 回暖是如何传导的？ 4 | | --- | | 90 年代末的启示：CPI 的改善源于新一轮开放而非国企改革传导 4 | | 2009-2011：强刺激拉动内需，PPI 与 CPI 依然同步 6 | | 2015–2017：两个指标的脱钩开始出现，上游周期获得更强集中度 8 | | 2020–2021：上游涨终端弱，剪刀差历史最大 10 | | 通胀能传导到利润，但对居民收入影响有限 11 | | 2026 价格回升：更关注政策拉动下的需求改善 12 | | 财政重心向民生倾斜，同时存在一些政策推动的提价 12 | | "反内卷"追求以更优制度来影响价格 13 | | 风险提示 14 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S086051909 ...

信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 齐晟 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | --- | --- | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 关注 CRMW 一级发行定价机会 | 结汇如何影响资金面和存单：固定收益市 | 2026-01-27 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 转债波动不弱正股，把握估值 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with inventory adjustments providing support. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with futures contracts experiencing significant declines. The price of lithium concentrate was reported at $2,070 per ton, down $144 from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, but downstream demand has led to active market transactions [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals, with notable announcements including Pilbara's production advancements and CATL's plans for a new battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium and Yahua Group have provided profit forecasts indicating significant year-on-year growth, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also reported expected turnarounds in profitability [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December production data shows mixed trends, with carbonate lithium production up 4% month-on-month and hydroxide lithium up 2%. The inventory levels are undergoing structural adjustments, with significant increases in imports of carbonate lithium and hydroxide lithium [18][31][49].

Market Overview - The market is currently in a sideways trend, with the pre-holiday low likely established, indicating no need for panic[3] - Global financial markets remain volatile, with an upward trend in risk assessment, while China's risk evaluation remains stable[3] Industry Focus - Investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the chemical and agricultural sectors[4] - Previous recommendations in the cyclical sectors of chemicals and non-ferrous metals have met expectations, with a focus now on agriculture and chemicals[4] Thematic Investment - Agricultural price increases are anticipated, with the agricultural policy document expected to be released in February, potentially driving prices upward[5] - Key agricultural products like live pigs and rubber are at the beginning of a price uptrend due to supply adjustments, while major commodities like sugar and corn are in a tight supply-demand balance[5] Technology and Aerospace - Continued focus on AI technologies and applications, with significant market interest expected as major internet companies ramp up marketing efforts ahead of the Spring Festival[5] - The aerospace sector is experiencing a decline in market attention, but potential for a rebound exists due to ongoing developments from companies like SpaceX and NASA[6] Risk Factors - Market performance may fall short of expectations due to various economic and geopolitical risks[7] - Insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks could lead to sudden market shocks[7] - Potential underperformance in industry developments due to technological iterations and commercialization challenges[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with support from inventory adjustments ahead of the holiday. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with a divergence in the rhythm between mining and salt ends. Futures contracts have dropped significantly, with the Wuxi 2605 contract down 16.65% to 149,200 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2605 contract down 18.36% to 148,200 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 2,070 USD/ton, down 144 USD from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected due to regulatory cooling and market fluctuations, with downstream demand stabilizing [12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals. For instance, Pilbara is evaluating the potential for increased production capacity at its Ngungaju plant, while CATL plans to build a lithium battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium Industry and other companies have announced significant changes in their profit forecasts, reflecting the impact of lithium price fluctuations and operational adjustments [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - In December, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 4% month-on-month, while hydroxide lithium production rose by 2%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a general increase in prices for lithium and cobalt materials. The average price for battery-grade carbonate lithium rose by 7.15% to a range of 161,000-182,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade hydroxide lithium increased by 8.12% to 158,000-169,000 CNY/ton [18][19][67].