投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | | | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | --- | --- | | 0414 | | | 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲：——策略 | 2025-04-07 | | 周报 0407 | | | 从政策博弈到基本面 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 加快建设农业强国，推进农业全面绿色转 型 ——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 ESG 指环境（Environment），社会（Social），治理（Governance）的英文首字母缩 写，是投资和评估企业的新理念新方法。在分析和投资的决策过程中，不仅要重视企业 的财务信息，也要重视 ESG 非财务信息。考虑 ESG 因素的投资也叫负责任投资，具有 受托人责任，旨在推动公司把社会环境等要求融入到企业业务中去，降低风险，实现价 值创造，产生长期回报。本系列主要从这一角度出发，针对国内外 ESG 相关的政策和热 点进行跟踪和梳理，为长期投资的方向和方法论提供参考。 研究结论 风险提示 卷首语 | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | --- | --- | | 券：——ESG 企业动态双周报第二十九期 | | | 美国证监会终止气候披露规则辩护，欧盟 | 2025-04-06 | | ESG披露推迟：——东方证券ESG双周报 | | | 第六十七期 | | | 顺丰启动航空碳中和计划，亚马逊推出碳 | 2025-03-29 | | 信用投资：——ES ...

持续关注钢铁板块的投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 16 周） 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 金价再创新高，积极关注黄金板块投资机 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 13 周） | | | 央行购金空间广阔，投资需求推动金价中 | 2025-03-27 | | 期上涨：——黄金系列报告之一 | | | 持续关注黄金与钢铁板块投资机会：—— | 2025-03-24 | | 有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 12 周） | | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 2025-03-12 有关分析师的申 ...

数字能源业务快速增长，持续获得新项目 定点 新能源车业务配套量低于预期、数字能源业务配套量低于预期、海外工厂盈利低于预 期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,018 | 12,702 | 15,278 | 18,143 | 21,502 | | 同比增长 (%) | 29.9% | 15.3% | 20.3% | 18.8% | 18.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 816 | 1,009 | 1,365 | 1,755 | 2,183 | | 同比增长 (%) | 67.7% | 23.6% | 35.3% | 28.6% | 24.4% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 612 | 784 | 1,056 | 1,358 | 1,690 | | 同比增长 (%) | 59.7% | 28.0% | 34.8% | 28.6% | 24.4% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.73 | 0.94 | 1.26 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on a valuation of 167.2 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue increase for 2025-2026 due to strong performance from new products [2][9]. - The company has demonstrated effective channel reuse for new products, leading to sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 3.92 CNY in 2023 to 13.79 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][10]. Product and Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The company's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 39 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink segment saw a remarkable growth of 261.5% [9]. - The company has effectively utilized its 4 million terminal points, leading to strong growth in its new product lines, including "Bup Shui La" and "Guo Zhi Cha" [9].

数字能源业务快速增长，持续获得新项目 定点 核心观点 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.97 | -22.23 | 13.5 | 27.1 | | 相对表现% | -5.56 | -16.36 | 14.54 | 21.42 | | 沪深 300% | 0.59 | -5.87 | -1.04 | 5.68 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.26、1.63、2.02 元（原 2025-2026 年为 1.39、1.77 元），可比公司 25 年 PE 平 均估值 24 倍，目标价 30.24 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 新能源车业务配套量低于预期、数字能源业务配套量低于预期、海外工厂盈利低于预 期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on an estimated equity value of 167.2 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a forecasted revenue increase for 2025-2026 and projected earnings per share of 9.13, 11.85, and 13.79 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of new product channel reuse and sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3][15]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][15]. Product Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The revenue from the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, was 39 billion CNY, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink revenue surged by 261.5% [9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has demonstrated strong growth in various regions, with notable increases in revenue from the Southwest (61.78%) and North China (71.67%) [9]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust distribution network, with 4 million terminal points enhancing its market reach and product availability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" due to a significant recovery in industry conditions and the company's position as a leading enterprise benefiting from this trend [2][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 21.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.87 billion yuan, a 117.0% increase compared to the previous year [4][8]. - The recovery in the vitamin industry, particularly for Vitamin A and E, has led to a notable increase in prices, which has positively impacted the company's gross margin, reaching 43.18%, an increase of 13.27 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing domestic share of the vitamin market, which has risen to approximately 86% in 2024, as overseas production declines due to various factors [8]. - New projects, such as the methionine project in collaboration with Sinopec, are anticipated to drive sustained growth for the company [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 15,117 - 2024A: 21,610 - 2025E: 23,641 - 2026E: 24,826 - 2027E: 26,496 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 43.0% - 2025: 9.4% - 2026: 5.0% - 2027: 6.7% [4][11] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,704 - 2024A: 5,869 - 2025E: 6,271 - 2026E: 6,295 - 2027E: 6,957 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 117.0% - 2025: 6.9% - 2026: 0.4% - 2027: 10.5% [4][11] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.88 - 2024A: 1.91 - 2025E: 2.04 - 2026E: 2.05 - 2027E: 2.26 [4][11] - Target price is set at 28.56 yuan based on a 14x average PE ratio of comparable companies for 2025 [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline in performance are the significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, as well as in the petrochemical sector with MTBE and PVC. Although raw materials like pure benzene and LPG also saw price declines, the extent was smaller, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin. In Q4 2024, there was a significant improvement in the market conditions for MDI and other products, resulting in a quarterly increase in gross margin, but substantial asset impairment provisions and asset write-offs negatively affected net profit [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its sales price, sales volume, and raw material price assumptions based on macroeconomic changes. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 4.37 yuan and 5.23 yuan respectively (previously 5.91 yuan and 6.83 yuan), with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.40 yuan. The comparable company PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15 times, and due to the company's long-term ROE and historical growth being more prominent, a 15% valuation premium is applied, resulting in a target price of 74.29 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Key Financial Information - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 182.07 billion yuan, 210.05 billion yuan, 224.90 billion yuan, and 234.10 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.8%, 15.4%, 7.1%, and 4.1% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 16.82 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.03 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 13.73 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 16.43 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.09 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2025, before recovering to 17.9% by 2027 [8]. Market Performance - The company's absolute performance over the past week, month, three months, and year has been -8.65%, -19.84%, -19.85%, and -35.27% respectively. In comparison, the relative performance has been -9.24%, -13.97%, -18.81%, and -40.95% against the CSI 300 index [2]. Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - The capital expenditure intensity has decreased, with a fixed asset increase of 20 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The construction in progress has decreased from a peak of 69.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024 to 47.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in capital expenditure intensity [10]. - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly due to changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty, leading to further declines in oil prices and prices of most bulk chemical products. The impact of the Sino-US trade dispute may affect raw materials like ethane and LPG, although the company has long-term strategic partners in the Middle East to mitigate some of these pressures [10].

金融工程 | 专题报告 时点风险模型 ——因子选股系列之一一三 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 研究动机 2024 年 9 月科技板块因政策变化引发的超预期反弹，暴露了传统指数增强模型在应对突 发性外部风险时的重大缺陷。此类事件驱动型风险具有瞬时性、高波动特征，而传统 Barra 类风险模型依赖缓慢衰减的风格因子进行风控，难以及时捕捉突发风险的短期集聚 效应，导致组合在极端市场环境下出现历史性回撤。基于此，本研究提出时点风险因 子，旨在解决突变型风险对组合的冲击问题。 时点风险因子 针对外部风险事件的突发性，我们创新性提出"时点风险因子"来刻画这种时点的风 险，风险具有集聚性，因此当天高风险的来源在未来短期内仍然是市场的高风险来源， 因此可以依靠这种风险的集聚效应去控制组合的时点风险从而起到对外部事件降波的作 用。 我们通过监测中证全指指数的振幅与成交额突破阈值（5 日均值+1 倍标准差）的突变时 点，以个股当日涨跌幅构建风险因子。当日个股涨跌幅是当日的隐式风险共同作用"定 价"后的结果，这一设计本质上是将政策冲击、流动性突 ...