1 行业点评（2024 年 11 月 13 日） "双十一"消费观察：销售回暖，以旧换新政策助力 近日"双十一"大促落下帷幕。"双十一"是观察国内消费趋势的重 要窗口，我们对今年数据简评如下。 一、平台促销周期拉长，全网销售额增速反弹 据星图数网统计，2024 年"双十一"期间全网实现销售额 1.44 万亿 元，相比去年增长 26.6%。尽管有去年低基数的影响，我们认为这一销售 表现仍能反映国内消费动能企稳回暖的迹象。一是用户的消费意愿迎来提 升，例如天猫 88VIP 下单人数同比增长超 50%，京东购物用户数同比增长 超 20%，苏宁易购超 120 家门店客流增长超六成。二是量价关系也出现改 善，2023 年销售额增速大幅落后快递量体现单价下行压力（销售额+2.1%， 快递量+23.2%），今年快递量和销售额增速则相对平衡（销售额+26.6%，快 递量+21.4%）。 值得注意的是，2024 年数据对于消费的实际反弹力度可能存在一定程 度高估。由于今年多家平台拉长了"双十一"活动时长，星图也相应调整 数据监测周期，如阿里平台的数据范围从去年的 12 天拉长至今年 29 天， 可比性受到影响。部分业内人士指出 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|----------------------------|-------| | | | | | [Table_Title1] AIGC 行业全景篇—— | | | | | | | | | 算力、模型与应用的创新融合 | | [■Tab人le工_su智m能ma的ry发1]展历程与 AIGC 的市场机遇。人工智能的发展经历了三次浪潮， 从最初的逻辑推理和专家系统，到机器学习和深度学习，人工智能技术不断演 进。AIGC 利用生成式 AI 技术，创造出多样化的内容，展示出巨大的商业潜力。 AIGC 产业链可划分为基础层、模型层和应用层。预计到 2030 年，AIGC 市场规模 将增至 9810 亿美元，推动全球经济增长 4.9 万亿美元，累计产生的经济影响达到 19.9 万亿美元。 ■ 基础层:AIGC 的快速发展推动算力需求激增，算力存储网络成为投资的主赛 道。随着 AIGC 技术的快速发展，特别是基于 Transformer 的大模型对算力需求急 剧增加，全球互联网巨头纷纷加大对 AIGC 基础设施的投 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) Company Overview - The conference call focuses on China Merchants Shekou, a leading real estate company in China, particularly in core first and second-tier cities. Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Trends - The real estate sector has stabilized after an overcorrection since October, with expectations of continued recovery in the beta market for real estate [2][3] - The National People's Congress meeting on November 8 did not specify amounts for land and existing housing storage, but the Ministry of Finance is developing policy details for storage funds, indicating a gradual policy rollout [2][3] - The overall direction for the real estate sector is confirmed, with increasing policy support expected to be released from the end of this year into next year [2][7] Company Strategy and Performance - China Merchants Shekou has focused on core cities, with land reserves concentrated in 6+10 cities, accounting for 88% of its investment [2][4] - In the first nine months of the year, all land acquisitions were in core first and second-tier cities, which are likely to see price stabilization first [2][4] - The company has utilized new financing tools such as stock buybacks and increased loans, providing it with a valuation premium [4] Sales and Financial Outlook - Sales data for October, November, and December are expected to be positive, supporting the effectiveness of policies rather than disproving them [5] - Signs of price stabilization are emerging, including a decrease in second-hand housing listings and stable housing prices, which may positively influence buyer sentiment for new homes [5] - China Merchants Shekou's sales performance remains among the top five in the industry, with October sales growth exceeding the average of the top 100 real estate companies [6] Valuation and Future Expectations - The company has recognized substantial impairments totaling 10.7 billion yuan over three years, which is 20% of total profits, laying a solid foundation for future profit recovery [6] - The current book valuation is over one times the price-to-book ratio (Pb), which appears high but is misleading due to significant undervaluation of land reserves in Shenzhen [8] - After re-evaluating unsold inventory, the actual net asset value per share is estimated to increase by approximately 0.25 yuan, suggesting a more realistic valuation of around 0.75 times the price-to-book ratio [8] Overall Market Sentiment - The expectation is for a gradual release of real estate policies from small to large, with a confirmed direction towards recovery [7] - Despite potential short-term corrections due to mismatches in market expectations, the overall trend remains positive, leading to a bullish outlook for the real estate sector in the coming months and into next year [7][9] - Leading real estate companies like China Merchants Shekou are expected to benefit from new policy tools and the recovery of fundamentals in core cities, indicating a higher potential for valuation recovery [9] Additional Important Insights - The company’s significant land reserves in prime locations are a critical asset that may not be fully reflected in current valuations, suggesting potential upside as market conditions improve [8] - The focus on core cities and strategic land acquisitions positions China Merchants Shekou favorably for future growth and recovery in the real estate market [4][6]

Economic Impact - Trump 2.0 policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, may initially boost US economic growth, with private investment contributing 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2017Q4[32] - Long-term economic growth is uncertain due to trade protectionism, restrictive immigration policies, and rising debt, potentially leading to a "high start, low finish" scenario[35] - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, with import prices increasing from 1.2% to 4.8% between July 2017 and July 2018[36] Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve may face the risk of a second round of interest rate hikes if Trump's policies lead to re-inflation, with only about 1% of rate cut space remaining[41] - US fiscal sustainability is under pressure, with public debt leverage expected to rise by 17 percentage points by 2035, reaching 142%[44] Impact on China - Short-term pressure on China's current and capital accounts due to high US inflation, interest rates, growth, and tariffs[47] - Long-term relief may come if the US adjusts its policies, such as lowering tariffs or interest rates, as economic pressures increase[47] Capital Markets - Trump 2.0 policies are expected to negatively impact US Treasuries, non-US currencies, gold, crude oil, small-cap US stocks, and the new energy sector, while benefiting the US dollar, traditional energy, financial, and tech sectors[50] - The US dollar is expected to remain strong due to high tariffs, tax cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, which are inflationary and limit the Fed's ability to cut rates[58] Asset Strategy - US Treasuries are recommended with a focus on short to medium durations, as they offer higher yields and are less sensitive to interest rate changes[55] - Gold is expected to remain volatile, with potential to reach $3,000 per ounce, but may face headwinds from reduced central bank buying and lower geopolitical risks[63]

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 11 月 4 日 1 "软着陆"仍是基准情形 ——美国非农就业数据点评（2024 年 10 月） 10 月"海伦妮"飓风冲击美国就业。新增非农就业人数 1.2 万（市场预 期 11.3 万），失业率 4.1%（市场预期 4.1%），劳动参与率 62.6%（市场预期 62.7%），平均时薪同比增速 4.0%（市场预期 4.0%）。 "软着陆"仍是基准情形，市场对 10 月就业数据反应平淡。前瞻地看， 美联储或保持平缓步伐推进本轮降息，年内仍将降息 1-2 次，合计幅度 25- 50bp。 一、边际变化："海伦妮"飓风冲击＆波音公司罢工 "海伦妮"飓风冲击服务业，波音公司罢工冲击制造业，10 月美国新增 就业人数骤降至 1.2 万。 一是"海伦妮"飓风冲击服务业就业，10 月私营部门服务业就业仅增 0.9 万（9 月+16.9 万），各细分行业新增就业普跌。二是波音公司罢工冲击制 造业就业，10 月私营部门制造业就业减少 3.7 万（9 月+2.3 万），就业减少全 部来自耐用品制造业（-4.7 万）。 综合其他数据判断，本轮冲击已经退坡，美国就业市场回归常态 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | [Table_Title1] 汽车出海专题 —— | | | | | 中国汽车全球化：从"出口"到"出海" | | | | [Table_summary1] ■ 中国汽车正从"走出去"到"走上去"转变。2021 年后，中国汽车迈入出口 "高光期"，2023 年汽车出口 491 万辆，正式超越日本成为全球第一大汽车出口 国。三大因素驱使中国车企"走出去"：一是汽车内需市场存量博弈，价格战愈 演愈烈；二是新冠疫情和地缘冲突迫使国际车企收缩版图，中国品牌迅速补位； 三是中国汽车的产品力和品牌力已经得到大幅提升。我们认为新能源汽车的产业 升级和中国自主品牌的崛起将驱动中国汽车从"走出去"向"走上去"转变。 ■ "质价比"和"新品类"助力中国车企海外市场持续突破。整车出口、散件出 口、品牌收并购及零基础投资是典型的出海模式。复盘丰田的全球化历程，其经 历了典型的从整车出口到制造出海再到技术及产业链出海的完整转型，而"性价 比 ...

[Table_Yemei0] 行业研究·行业深度 2024 年 10 月 23 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | [Table_Title1] | | | | | | 生物制造系列报告① —— | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 把握合成生物发展趋势，聚焦产业链上下游突破 | | | | [Table_summary1] ■ 合成生物学：从"格物致知"到"造物致用"，推动产业技术变革和生物经 济发展。合成生物学汇聚了多学科发展，基于工程化的设计理念，对生物体进行 有目标地设计、改造乃至重新合成，甚至创建赋予非自然功能的"人造生命"， 推动了从认识生命到设计生命的跨越，正在引领产业技术变革和生物经济发展。 合成生物学在医药、化工材料、食品农业以及生物能源等多领域展现了颠覆性、 渗透性作用，以其绿色、低碳和循环特点，具备引领"第 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call involved **招商证券 (China Merchants Securities)**, discussing its financial performance and strategic outlook for the third quarter. Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: For the first nine months, the company reported a revenue of **143 billion CNY**, a **4% decrease** year-on-year [1] - **Net Profit**: Adjusted net profit increased by **2.9 percentage points** to **50.1%** [1] - **Investment Income**: Investment income saw a significant increase of **51.9%** [1][5] - **Commission Income**: Commission income from brokerage services decreased by **17.6%** [1] - **Operating Expenses**: The operating expense ratio was **47.3%**, a slight decrease of **0.1 percentage points** year-on-year [1] Revenue Structure - **Investment Income**: Contributed **50.2%** of total revenue, marking a significant increase [2] - **Brokerage Services**: Accounted for **25.7%** of revenue, with a noted decline due to decreased trading volumes [2] - **Long-term Equity Investments**: Contributed **7.9%** to revenue [2] - **Investment Banking and Asset Management**: Contributed **2.9%** and **3.5%** respectively [2] Market Performance - **A-share Market**: Average daily trading volume decreased by **8.0%** year-on-year, with margin financing down by **9.5%** [3] - **IPO Market**: A-share IPO financing dropped by **86.1%**, while bond financing decreased by **78.9%** [3] - **Hong Kong Market**: Showed resilience with a **0.5%** increase in average daily trading volume [3] Capital Intermediation and Financing - **Margin Financing**: As of September, the balance was **70.6 billion CNY**, down **14%** year-on-year [4] - **Stock Pledge Financing**: Remained at **18.5 billion CNY** [4] Investment Strategy - The company has adopted a strategy focusing on **fixed income investments**, which have shown substantial growth due to favorable market conditions [6] - **Asset Allocation**: The company maintains a conservative approach with **74%** in fixed income and **26%** in equities and funds [6] Wealth Management and Brokerage Services - The company has maintained a stable ranking in brokerage services despite a decline in revenue, attributed to regulatory impacts on high-frequency trading [11] - **Commission Rates**: Average commission rates have increased slightly, attributed to a decrease in high-frequency trading clients [16] Asset Management Performance - **Asset Management Income**: Experienced a decline due to lower yields on cash products, despite an increase in asset scale [17] - **Public Fund Contributions**: The contributions from public funds have shown a slight decline but remain stable [18] Institutional Business - The company has a strong position in the private equity custody market, benefiting from regulatory changes that favor larger, compliant firms [21] - **Client Base**: Focus on enhancing service capabilities for institutional clients, including public funds and insurance companies [22] Future Outlook - The company is in the process of developing a new strategic plan for the next five years, aiming to improve its market position and operational efficiency [27] - **IPO Pipeline**: The company has a robust IPO pipeline, ranking **sixth** in terms of IPO reserves [36] Conclusion - Overall, 招商证券 has demonstrated resilience in a challenging market environment, with strategic adjustments aimed at enhancing profitability and market share. The focus on investment income and maintaining a strong institutional client base positions the company well for future growth.

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Bank Q3 2024 Earnings Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Bank (招商银行) - **Event**: Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call - **Date**: October 29, 2024 Key Points Financial Performance - **Revenue**: The bank reported total operating income of CNY 252.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93% [3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 113.18 billion, down 0.62% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in the first half of the year [3] - **Return on Assets (ROAA)**: 1.33% and Return on Equity (ROE) at 15.38% [3] - **Cost Management**: Operating expenses decreased by 3.5% to CNY 82.17 billion, with a cost-to-income ratio of 29.59%, down 0.5 percentage points [3] Asset and Liability Management - **Total Assets**: CNY 11.65 trillion, up 5.68% from the previous year [4] - **Loans**: Total loans and advances reached CNY 6.76 trillion, a growth of 3.84% year-on-year [4] - **Deposits**: Customer deposits totaled CNY 8.73 trillion, increasing by 7.08% [4] - **Loan Quality**: Non-performing loan (NPL) balance was CNY 63.56 billion, with an NPL ratio of 0.94%, slightly down from the previous year [6][7] Market and Economic Environment - **Economic Outlook**: The bank noted a stable overall economic operation in China, but challenges remain, including weak effective demand and social expectations [8] - **Policy Impact**: Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the economy are expected to positively impact credit demand and investment [12][13] Wealth Management and Non-Interest Income - **Wealth Management**: The bank's wealth management business remains robust, with retail clients increasing to 206 million, a growth of 4.57% [5] - **Non-Interest Income**: Net fee and commission income was CNY 55.70 billion, down 16.9% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half [6] - **Investment Opportunities**: The bank is optimistic about capital market recovery, which is expected to benefit its wealth management and non-interest income streams [12][50] Risk Management - **Asset Quality**: The bank maintains a strong risk management framework, with a focus on monitoring and mitigating risks in key sectors such as real estate and manufacturing [7][19] - **Provisions**: The bank's provision coverage ratio was 432.15%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [7] Strategic Focus - **Value Banking Strategy**: The bank aims to enhance its value banking strategy, focusing on quality and efficiency while maintaining a balanced growth approach [8] - **Digital Transformation**: Continued investment in digital capabilities and technology to improve customer service and operational efficiency [86] Future Outlook - **Profit Growth**: Management expressed cautious optimism about profit growth in Q4 and beyond, contingent on economic recovery and effective policy implementation [20][21] - **Loan Demand**: Anticipated improvement in loan demand due to recent policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [12][34] Additional Insights - **Cost Control**: The bank is focused on cost control measures to enhance profitability amidst a challenging revenue environment [39][40] - **Employee Engagement**: Emphasis on maintaining employee morale and engagement while implementing cost management strategies [40] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, market conditions, strategic initiatives, and future outlook for China Merchants Bank.

各位投资人大家中午好欢迎来到招商基金直播间今天是我们招商A500ETF连接基金的节目的一天是我们募集的最后一天所以也很高兴在这个时间能够有机会在这里跟大家做一个交流对如果大家有关于这个产品的任何的问题可以打在这个公屏上我们会在这里和大家共同去交流和分享 因为也是节目的一天嘛 所以我相信来到我们这个今天中午这个直播间的投资人和客户可能已经对这个产品其实有比较多的了解和看到了很多的相关的信息和介绍了所以其实我觉得其实也并不需要我对这个产品做过多的一个介绍和分享啊 就是如果大家对这个产品之前有关注那今天是我们募集的最后一天那么欢迎大家或者也希望大家能够继续支持招商基金能够在这个15点之前吧然后通过我们的这些购买链接和购买的入口进行产品的购买和下单然后今天在各个平台也有一些平台的一些官方福利大家可以在这个平台自己去关注和领取对 那其实如果是说啊要说到这个产品如果说这里我还有什么我想跟大家说的和和说的点吧我觉得核心还是在于啊作为一个宽阶指数啊大家其实我们看到最近其实市场表现还是非常不错的啊不管是A股啊还是港股啊其实表现的都还是非常不错的那么在这种情况下那 虽然可能有些小伙伴会觉得不像前期这个拉伸涨幅这么猛啊但是我我们觉 ...