Overseas Economy - The US economy continues to expand steadily, with Q3 GDP growth revised up to 3.4% and full-year growth expected to exceed 2.5%[26] - The European economy is slowing down, with inflation cooling significantly and the ECB implementing its third rate cut of the year, with potential for accelerated cuts in the future[2] - Japan's economy is showing signs of weakening, with political turmoil affecting rate hike expectations, though long-term rate hikes remain likely[2] Chinese Economy - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.6%, slightly above market expectations, but growth has slowed for two consecutive quarters due to weak domestic demand[2] - Industrial production accelerated in September, with industrial output up 5.4% YoY, driven by new industries and export growth[48] - Fixed asset investment rose 1.4% YoY in September, with infrastructure investment surging 11.3% to 17.5%, the highest monthly growth this year[50] Financial Situation - New RMB loans in September totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, significantly below seasonal levels, reflecting weak economic growth[2] - M2 money supply grew 6.8% YoY in September, driven by non-bank and corporate deposits, while M1 growth fell to -7.4%, indicating weak economic activity[2] - Social financing increased by 3.76 trillion yuan in September, supported by accelerated government bond issuance, but corporate bond financing declined[59] Fiscal Situation - Fiscal revenue rebounded in September, with non-tax revenue surging 25.2% YoY, while tax revenue remained weak, down 5.0% YoY[62] - Fiscal expenditure accelerated in September, up 5.2% YoY, with infrastructure and social welfare spending increasing significantly[63] - The fiscal deficit for the first nine months narrowed, with revenue and expenditure growth rates improving, but budget completion progress remains slow[64] Macro Policy - The central bank introduced two structural policy tools to support the capital market, including a 300 billion yuan special relending facility for stock buybacks[66] - The 1-year and 5-year LPR rates were cut by 25 basis points, the largest reduction this year, aimed at lowering financing costs and stabilizing the property market[68] - The central bank launched a new open market operation tool, the buyout-style reverse repo, to enhance liquidity management and provide more policy flexibility[70]

投资策略配置建议表 研究院 [Table_Yemei0] 资本市场研究•月度报告 2024 年 10 月 31 日 +[Table_Title1] 关注美国大选影响，A 股进入 N 字走势第二阶段 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------|-----------------------|-------|---------|-----------------------------|----------------------|-------|----------| | | 大类资产 \n美元 | 月度趋势 \n偏强震荡 | 高 配 | 中高 配 | 配置建议（未来 \n标配 \n● | 6 个月） \n中低 配 | 低配 | 配置变化 | | | 欧元 | 偏弱震荡 | | | ● | | | | | 汇率 | 人民币 | 偏弱震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 日元 | 偏弱震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 英镑 | 偏弱震荡 | | | ● | | | | ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call involved **Jiangshan Nanyou**, a leading refined oil transportation company in the Asia-Pacific region and the only cost-operating entity listed on the A-share market [1][2] - The company has shown strong performance in the refined oil transportation sector, which is expected to continue benefiting from industry growth [1][2] Key Financial Highlights - For the first three quarters of 2023, Jiangshan Nanyou reported: - Revenue of **5.008 billion** yuan, a year-on-year increase of **7.76%** [3] - Operating profit of **1.388 billion** yuan, a year-on-year increase of **16.85%** [3][4] - In Q3, revenue was **1.48 billion** yuan, a slight decrease of **0.73%**, but operating profit increased by **20.9%** [4] - The company achieved a **21%** year-on-year increase in quarterly performance, exceeding market expectations [2][19] Market Dynamics - The refined oil transportation market faced pressures in Q3 due to geopolitical factors affecting demand and operational challenges in the oil transportation sector [2][19] - The company noted that while the refined oil market remains stable, there are signs of pressure from the crude oil transportation sector [2][19] - The demand for refined oil is projected to grow by **8%** year-on-year, although this may be adjusted based on current market conditions [12][19] Operational Strategies - Jiangshan Nanyou has focused on expanding its operations in the western market, which has shown better performance compared to the eastern market [20][24] - The company has successfully increased its market share in the western region, leveraging its operational capabilities and fleet efficiency [20][24] - The management emphasized the importance of diversifying operations and maintaining competitiveness in both eastern and western markets [24][25] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the refined oil transportation sector, driven by geopolitical factors and market demand [19][30] - There are concerns regarding the potential impact of new ship deliveries on market dynamics, but the overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable [16][30] - The management is optimistic about the long-term outlook for the industry, despite short-term fluctuations in demand and pricing [19][30] Investment Considerations - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a diversified fleet and operational flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions [20][30] - The company is exploring opportunities for new shipbuilding to enhance its operational capacity and market presence [30][31] - There is a focus on improving profitability through strategic partnerships and optimizing operational efficiencies [20][23] Additional Insights - The company has been proactive in managing its fleet, with older vessels being phased out to improve overall efficiency [27][36] - The management discussed the potential for increased shareholder returns through share buybacks and future dividend policies, contingent on financial performance [37][38] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, market dynamics, operational strategies, and future outlook.

1 区域点评（2024 年 10 月 16 日） ——简析《关于加快公共数据资源开发利用的意见》 近日，新华社发布了《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于加快公 共数据资源开发利用的意见》（以下简称《意见》）。《意见》是中 央层面首次对公共数据资源开发利用进行系统部署，是数据基础制度 建设的重要一环。其从扩大资源供给、规范授权运营、鼓励应用创新、 营造良好环境、强化组织保障等方面提出了 17 项具体措施，是贯彻落 实党的二十届三中全会精神的重要改革举措，对数据资源开发利用具 有里程碑意义。 一、政策背景 公共数据事关数字经济发展大局，《意见》将打开供给新局面。 2022 年 12 月，国务院《关于构建数据基础制度更好发挥数据要素作 用的意见》（以下简称"数据二十条"），建立公共数据、企业数据、 个人数据的分类分级开发利用框架。其中，公共数据体量大、质量好、 潜能大、带动作用强，且大都被政府所掌握，便于开展创新性探索， 成为发展数字经济首先要突破的领域。"数据二十条"发布后，公共数 据开发利用取得了一定的进展，但局面没有完全打开，各地未能形成 具备推广性的模式。《意见》作为支持公共数据开发利用的专门政策， 着眼于供 ...

[Table_Author1] i 2024 年 10 月 18 日 |研究院 资产负债管理部 [Table_Yemei1] 行内偕作·宏观深度 [Table_Title1] 日元潮汐：套息交易机理、规模与风险 [Table_summary1] ■ 今年 8 月 5 日，全球股市遭遇"黑色星期一"，日本股市领跌全球， 日元汇率快速升值。市场普遍认为，对美国经济衰退以及日央行升息预期 所引发日元套息交易大规模逆转，是造成本次金融冲击的主要原因。 ■ 日元套息交易，泛指借入低息日元，投资于潜在回报更高资产的交易 策略/行为，具有"高杠杆、高风险"特征。过去 25 年间，日央行持续实 施零利率政策，使得日元成为全球最为稳定低息币种，全球金融市场日元 套息交易日积月累，规模持续扩张。 ■ 不同于市场主流的估测方法，本文基于日央行公布的日元资金循环 表，对 2023 财年末（2024 年 3 月末）三类日元套息交易的潜在规模上限 进行了估算。一是日本居民借入日元，投向海外证券，此类交易潜在规模 或达$5.4 万亿。二是日本非居民借入日元，投向上市日股，此类交易潜在 规模或达$2.1 万亿。三是日本非居民将日元投向海外证 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the importance of innovation-driven and cross-regional collaboration, particularly in the context of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor in the Yangtze River Delta region [1][10] - The G60 Corridor is positioned as a national strategic platform, aiming to become an internationally influential innovation hub and a key source of innovation in China [11] - The corridor has achieved significant progress in innovation and industrial development, with notable increases in R&D investment, high-tech enterprises, and contributions to national economic indicators [16] Construction Background - The G60 Corridor has evolved from grassroots practices to a national strategic platform, covering nine cities along the G60 Expressway and high-speed rail lines [11] - The corridor's development is supported by policies that emphasize institutional innovation in education, technology, talent, and cross-regional collaboration [14] - Each city within the corridor has distinct policy focuses, such as Shanghai's emphasis on basic research and international openness, while Suzhou focuses on industrial innovation [14] Development Achievements - The nine cities in the G60 Corridor have significantly improved their innovation capabilities, with R&D investment increasing by 83% from 2018 to 2022, and the number of high-tech enterprises growing from 10,000 to over 50,000 [16] - The corridor contributes 1/5 of China's科创板 enterprises, 1/6 of national science and technology awards, and 1/9 of PCT international patent applications, despite accounting for only 1/24 of the population and 1/120 of the land area [16] - The innovation landscape is characterized by a gradient and differentiated system, with Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Hefei as core cities, while other cities focus on leveraging external resources to drive local innovation and industrial development [18] Innovation Collaboration and Cooperation - The report identifies four effective collaboration paths: industrial chain cooperation, shared innovation platforms, establishment of innovation hubs, and promotion of innovation element circulation [1][34] - Industrial chain cooperation involves leveraging leading enterprises, creating industrial alliances, and establishing demonstration zones to promote cross-regional collaboration [35] - Shared innovation platforms include large-scale scientific facilities and concept validation centers, which facilitate collaboration between government, industry, academia, and research institutions [40] - The establishment of innovation hubs, or "reverse flyover" models, allows less developed regions to tap into the innovation resources of more developed areas, particularly in Shanghai [42] - The promotion of innovation element circulation focuses on the free flow of talent, technology, and capital across regions, with initiatives such as cross-regional financial products and shared data platforms [46]

1 政策点评（2024 年 10 月 18 日） 房地产"止跌回稳"组合拳 ——10 月 17 日五部门新闻发布会点评 10 月 17 日上午住房城乡建设部就"促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有关 情况"举办新闻发布会，财政部、自然资源部、中国人民银行、国家金融监 督管理总局负责人参会并答记者问，旨在落实 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议"要 促进房地产市场止跌回稳"的精神，提出"两个增加、四个取消、四个降低"。 "两个增加"，即"通过货币化安置方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、 危旧房改造"和"年底前融资白名单项目规模从当前 2.23 万亿增加到 4 万亿" 备受市场关注。继 2015-2019 年棚改货币化安置后，政策再次提出城中村 货币化安置，打开了后续财政助力的方向和空间，未来仍需密切关注相关 政策的落地力度及速度。"四个取消、四个降低"关乎存量政策，目前这些 措施正在快速落地实施过程中，并对十月份以来的房地产市场产生了积极 的影响。此外，发布会还提及"探索专项债收购存量商品房和土地""保交房 攻坚战""保障房以需定购"，均为原有政策的延续。 基于当前房地产市场经过三年调整期"已经开始筑底"的研判，住建部 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decrease to 4.6% in Q3 compared to Q2[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.0%, indicating a 0.6 percentage point difference from the real GDP growth rate[2] Demand and Consumption - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery, with retail sales growth rising to 3.2% in September, up 1.1 percentage points from August[6] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption in major categories, with home appliances and automobiles seeing increases of 20.5% and 4.1% respectively[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment notably increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 9.3%[4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 1.7 percentage points to 9.7%, reversing a declining trend since March[5] Industrial Production - Industrial production accelerated, with the value-added of large-scale industries increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in September, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The industrial capacity utilization rate slightly increased to 75.1%, still below the peak of 78.4% in Q2 2021[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment decline narrowed to -10.1%, with new construction down by 20.0%[4] - Property sales showed improvement, with the decline in sales area and amount reducing to 11% and 16.3% respectively in September[4] Future Outlook - The GDP growth rate is expected to rise to around 5.3% in Q4, driven by improved domestic demand and ongoing policy support[9] - A series of incremental policies are anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate economic activity in the coming quarters[9]

1 资本市场点评（2024 年 10 月 23 日） 美债利率的反弹还会继续吗？ 事件：自 10 月以来，美债利率出现了一轮明显反弹，10 年期利率已经 站上 4.2%，相关产品净值也同步出现了回撤。 对此，我们点评如下： 一、美债利率为何反弹？ 一方面，美联储降息预期向下修正。10 月以来，美国多项经济数据表现 超预期，美联储官员对未来降息路径的表述也偏谨慎，共同导致年内降息预 期从 3 次下修至不足 2 次，带动了美债利率的反弹。 另一方面，"特朗普交易"卷土重来。近期，特朗普支持率出现快速回 升，尤其是在关键摇摆州的民调支持率已经超过了哈里斯。市场开始再度押 注"特朗普交易"。特朗普主张的减税、加征关税、收紧移民等政策均呈现通 胀属性，可能会掣肘美联储的降息幅度，美债利率因此出现反弹。 上述两点因素我们在 9 月底发表的资本市场季报中有所提示，目前已被 验证。 二、美债利率的反弹还会继续吗？ 我们认为在大选结果落地之前，美债利率的反弹可能还会延续。 首先，降息预期的摇摆可能并未结束。尽管衍生品市场的降息预期（1.6 次）已经略低于点阵图（2 次），但考虑到美国的消费韧性、服务通胀粘性等 因素，降息预期进 ...

1 行业点评（2024 年 10 月 14 日） 财政接力稳盘，后续关注销售及收储落地 ——房地产高频跟踪② 9 月的中央政治局会议房地产"止跌回稳"的目标明显积极，因此各 项政策空间相应被逐步打开。近两周是地产政策的密集出台期，10 月 12 日，财政部新闻发布会上又推出一揽子针对房地产的增量政策，增量政策 包括允许专项债用于收土地和存量商品房，优化税收支持等。从近期网签 数据（9.30-10.13）来看，新房周均网签面积相对年内均值水平改善明显； 二手房周均网签面积在 8 月-9 月中上旬走弱的情况下有所修复，基本回到 517 前后相对较高水平。一线城市广州新房、深圳二手房改善较大。另外， 考虑到住宅认购到网签约需两周左右时间，国庆期间认购数据预计将在本 月中下旬逐渐反映至网签数据，后续将密切关注销售改善的成色和持续性。 一、政策：财政三大举措接力稳地产，关注专项债助力收储的相关细 则落地 10 月 12 日财政部对于地产的支持举措聚焦在供给端。通过扩大专项 债使用范围，回收土储及存量商品房，"严控增量、优化存量"，助力地产 去库存，在供给端发力"稳地产"，加速达到供需平衡。通过税收优惠，主 要降低房企税 ...