行业研究丨深度报告丨电子元件 [Table_Title] 液态金属行业五问五答 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 苹果作为全球消费电子硬件创新的引领者，其自身的高端机存量用户 10 亿以上，安卓品牌在 前几年已经给消费者完成折叠屏市场教育阶段，大量 IOS 用户期待苹果的折叠屏手机问世，我 们预期其首代产品将大卖，若后续采用液态金属转轴也会对当下安卓品牌形成很好的示范作 用，液态金属行业或将迎来新一轮高成长。针对市场普遍关注的几个问题，本篇报告以五问五 答的形式行文论述。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 蔡少东 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490522090001 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 液态金属，即非晶合金，是指与通常情况下金属材料的原子排列呈现的周期性和对称性所不同 的非结晶状态的金属，其内部原子排列为短程有序、长程无序的玻璃态结构，因此又被称为"金 属玻璃"。 产业液态金属应用场景 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The development path of the overseas AI industry shows a two-year lag from significant capital expenditure (Capex) investments in 2023 to the explosion of token usage in 2025. Domestic companies are expected to start their AI capital expenditure cycle in the second half of 2024, one year behind their overseas counterparts [3][6][7] - The report highlights that cloud service providers (CSPs) will be the first to benefit from the token explosion, as they serve as the backbone for AI applications. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are likely to achieve a positive cycle of AI investment returns more quickly [3][9] Summary by Sections Overseas Observation - The overseas AI industry is expected to experience a three-stage cycle: high Capex investment in 2023, revenue growth for cloud providers in 2024, and a surge in token usage in 2025. The high Capex investments are primarily directed towards model training, which is costly [6][21][36] Domestic Observation - Domestic companies are lagging behind their overseas counterparts by about a year in terms of investment. The leading domestic cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, is projected to see its revenue growth rebound significantly starting in the second half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to rise from 3% to 26% [7][48] Domestic Forecast - The report predicts that the domestic token explosion will occur in 2026, following the overseas pattern. As of now, the leading cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, has begun to realize revenue growth, primarily driven by training demand, while inference demand is gradually increasing [8][52] Cloud Computing as the Core of AI - Cloud computing is described as the "blood" of applications, set to benefit first from the token explosion. The demand for cloud services is expected to shift from resource pricing to value pricing, potentially increasing gross margins for cloud resources [9][56] Competitive Landscape - The competition among major players in the AI space will hinge on two factors: the capability of their models and the ability to form effective business closed loops. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are better positioned to convert model advancements into business revenue or barriers [9][60][61]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [12]. Core Insights - The company, Nanya New Materials, has been deeply involved in the copper-clad laminate (CCL) industry for over 20 years, producing a wide range of products suitable for various applications, including high-frequency and high-speed products for the 5G era [4][10]. - The CCL market in China has shown steady growth since 2018, with an expected market size of 71.2 billion yuan in 2023, driven by increasing demand in telecommunications, computing, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics [7][29]. - The demand for high-frequency and high-speed CCL is significantly driven by advancements in AI and 5G technologies, which require materials with low dielectric constants and low loss factors [44][71]. Company Overview - Nanya New Materials has established a robust production and R&D network centered in Shanghai, with additional facilities in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Jiangxi, allowing it to adapt to diverse market needs [10]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product line that includes various grades of CCL, catering to the evolving requirements of the electronics industry [10][76]. Industry Dynamics - The CCL industry is experiencing a price increase cycle, with strong upward pressure on prices due to rising costs of key raw materials such as copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth [8][35]. - The industry is characterized by a higher concentration compared to the PCB industry, which limits the bargaining power of PCB manufacturers against CCL suppliers [35]. - The demand for high-frequency and high-speed CCL is expected to grow as AI applications expand, necessitating advanced materials that meet stringent performance criteria [76][79].

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨太平洋航运（02343.HK） [Table_Title] 太平洋航运：细水长流，共迈远途 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 太平洋航运是一家深耕于小宗散货海运的公司，由于处于强周期的完全竞争市场，公司业绩随 行业波动，当前行业底部，拐点将至，供给端温和增长，无明显扩张迹象，且老龄化加剧有效 运力收紧，需求端提供向上弹性，西芒杜投产、美联储降息以及或有的俄乌战后重建等多重因 素助力拉涨行业的运量与运距。在运价中枢有望抬升的情况下，太平洋航运凭借其业内领先的 运力规模、经验老道的管理层与船管团队、稳健的多长约运营策略、审慎的资本开支纪律和持 续高分红承诺，展现出显著的周期防御性，且未来有望随着行业景气上行而展现业绩弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 魏爱晓 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_s ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles has reached 55%, and future sales growth is expected to slow down. However, the increase in battery capacity is anticipated to significantly impact demand, with a projected double-digit growth in battery demand for passenger vehicles by 2026 [2][4] - The domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has entered a consumption-driven growth phase since the end of 2020, with penetration rates increasing from around 10% to an expected 55% by the end of 2025. This growth is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth due to a higher base [4][17] - The increase in battery capacity is expected to support the growth of battery installations, with single-vehicle battery capacity projected to rise from 52.8 kWh in April 2025 to 61.2 kWh by December 2025 for EVs, and from 23.3 kWh to 33.7 kWh for PHEVs during the same period [4][18] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The market for new energy passenger vehicles is projected to see a slight decline in total vehicle numbers, while new energy vehicles are expected to achieve small single-digit growth due to increased penetration rates. Battery capacity per vehicle is expected to increase by approximately 7%-8%, supporting a battery installation growth rate of around 12% [6][34] Policy and Economic Factors - Positive factors for battery capacity enhancement include changes in the old-for-new policy, which sets a subsidy cap at 8% of the vehicle price in 2026, and changes in purchase tax standards that require PHEVs to have a pure electric range of 100 kWh to qualify for tax exemptions [5][23] - The trend towards larger batteries in range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to continue, addressing consumer concerns about range anxiety and enhancing the perception of electric vehicles' convenience and cost-effectiveness [24] Product Development - Major manufacturers are launching new models with increased battery capacities. For instance, BYD and Geely are introducing models with capacities ranging from 20.79 kWh to 36.62 kWh for their 2026 versions [27][30] - The introduction of large-capacity EVs and PHEVs is expected to further enrich the market, with new models like the Wanjie M9 and NIO ES9 expected to have battery capacities around 100 kWh [31][33]

Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the general fiscal revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, down 1.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal expenditure was CNY 28.7 trillion, up 1.0% year-on-year[6] - The cumulative general fiscal revenue for 2025 was down 2.9% compared to the budgeted growth of 0.2%, while expenditure was up 3.7%, below the budgeted 9.3%[8] - The completion rate of the first account expenditure in 2025 was the lowest since 2003 at 96.8%, with infrastructure spending significantly reduced[8] December 2025 Insights - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in central non-tax revenue, which decreased by 51%[8] - General fiscal expenditure in December 2025 saw a marginal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, but showed signs of acceleration, particularly in infrastructure and service consumption[8] - The central government’s non-tax revenue in December 2025 was notably impacted by a high base effect from 2024, where actual revenue was 327% of the budgeted amount[8] Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, focusing on growth and debt management, with major economic provinces leading the efforts[8] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to reach CNY 1.1 trillion, an increase of CNY 0.2 trillion year-on-year, with early initiation of new special bonds contributing to this growth[8] - The fiscal strategy aims to support economic stability and growth through increased infrastructure and service sector investments[8]

行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] xTool：全球科技工具品牌，龙头地位持续巩固 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司专注于全球科技工具市场，产品以激光工具为核心，并拓展至材料打印领域。行业层面， 全球市场规模预计保持快速增长，其中激光类稳步渗透，材料打印类（尤其 DTF）增长显著。 公司地位稳固，在激光市场及核心细分领域份额持续领先，并快速切入材料打印市场，位列全 球前三。财务方面，公司收入稳健增长，毛利率保持较好水平。整体来看，公司已在高增长赛 道建立领先优势，具备持续发展的基础。综上，建议把握科技工具优质赛道及产业链投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] xTool：全球科技工具品牌，龙头地位持续巩固 [Table_Summary2] 公司概览：全球化布局深化，产品矩阵持续丰富 xTool 是一家全球消费科技品牌 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨宁德时代（300750.SZ） [Table_Title] 迈向应用创新，再造宁德时代——换电篇 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从宁德时代近两年的战略方向看，动力、储能电池持续的材料体系研发、极限制造创新仍是重 点和基础，与之同时面向市场应用的集成产品、商业模式创新有被更多的提及。因此，我们将 宁德时代的研究重点，从锂电池制造转向应用创新布局，关注换电与车电分离、滑板底盘、数 据中心储能集成、零碳电网等业务进展。本篇报告将重点介绍宁德时代的换电战略。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520090003 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 邬博华 曹海花 叶之楠 [Table_scodeMsg2] 宁德时代（300750.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the heavy-duty truck industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The electrification of heavy-duty trucks in China is accelerating due to policy support and economic drivers, with the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks expected to reach 33.0% by 2026, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year. The average battery capacity is projected to reach 498 KWh, a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [3][8] - Traditional automakers are expected to see a recovery in both market position and profitability in their new energy heavy-duty truck businesses, with a strong recommendation for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [8] Summary by Sections Historical Review - The development of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China can be divided into two phases: 1. **2021-2023**: Policy introduction phase, where the penetration rate rose from 0.7% in 2021 to 5.0% in 2023 2. **2024 onwards**: Market-driven phase, with sales expected to reach 78,000 units in 2024 and a penetration rate of 12.9%, increasing to 231,000 units and 28.9% in 2025 [6][18] Market Outlook - By 2026, the penetration rates for different types of heavy-duty trucks are expected to vary: - **Tractor Trucks**: 44% penetration rate with an average battery capacity of 528 KWh - **Specialized Trucks**: 21% penetration rate, with concrete mixer trucks contributing significantly - **Cargo Trucks**: Low penetration due to weight issues, but potential policy changes may drive growth - **Dump Trucks**: Expected to reach a 50% penetration rate, especially in mining applications [7][8][40] Investment Recommendations - The trend towards electrification in heavy-duty trucks is irreversible, with traditional manufacturers likely to regain market share and profitability as new energy trucks become more prevalent. The report emphasizes the importance of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group as a key player in this transition [8][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The operational cycle of the company is improving, with inventory returning to a healthy state, and it is expected to return to growth in 2026. The company is currently in a recovery adjustment period due to public sentiment impacts in 2025, which has led to increased marketing and promotional spending. The upgrade of the 0 series soy sauce in September 2025 positions the company to lead the industry in clean label transformation [3][9] - The company is a proponent of healthy soy sauce in China, focusing on products like soy sauce, vinegar, cooking wine, and oyster sauce, with a core positioning of "clean ingredient list" and "0 additives." Since its listing in 2016, the company has experienced rapid growth, with a CAGR of 18.29% in revenue and 19.92% in net profit from 2017 to 2024. However, in the past two years, revenue and profit have been under pressure due to product structure adjustments and negative public sentiment [6][18] - The soy sauce industry is entering a mature development stage, seeking structural growth opportunities driven by health and functionality. The industry is focusing on "0 additives," reduced salt, and organic products, with a trend towards higher value-added products supported by health positioning [6][34] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the "healthy seasoning" sector, emphasizing clean ingredients and zero additives. It has undergone significant adjustments in product structure and channel strategies due to recent challenges, but is poised for recovery and growth [6][18] Market Dynamics - The soy sauce market is approximately 900 billion yuan, with a CAGR of about 4.1% from 2016 to 2025. The market is characterized by stable volume growth and declining price growth, indicating a need for structural optimization [34][36] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing with one dominant player, Hai Tian, holding over 20% market share. The company aims to leverage its differentiated brand positioning to improve its market ranking [7][34] Financial Performance - The company has faced significant revenue and profit declines in 2025 due to negative public sentiment, but is expected to recover as inventory issues are resolved and new product launches take place. The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 0.30 yuan and 0.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33 and 25 [9][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into new channels, including e-commerce and new retail formats, to drive revenue growth. The recent product upgrades and marketing strategies are expected to enhance brand recognition and improve operational efficiency [8][9]