丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨五芳斋（603237.SH） [Table_Title] 五芳斋 2024 年报点评：业绩符合预期，关注新 渠道拓展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营业总收入 22.51 亿元（同比-14.57%，下文皆为同比）；归母净利润 1.42 亿元（- 14.24%），扣非净利润 1.3 亿元（-9.66%）。其中 2024Q4 营业总收入 2.03 亿元（-7.61%）； 归母净利润-6828.93 万元（+9.64%），扣非净利润-6939.77 万元（+19.99%）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 范晨昊 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490519100003 SFC：BQK487 $${\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}$$ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 五芳斋（60323 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.041 billion yuan, reflecting a 108.03% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 0.232 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items also showing a loss of 0.221 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [2][6]. - The company expects to continue its high-quality development trajectory, with confidence in achieving new highs in revenue and profit for 2025 [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 14.667 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 41%. The operating profit was 1.609 billion yuan, accounting for 11% of total revenue [18]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 7.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 4 million kiloliters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The U8 product line saw a significant sales increase of 31.4% year-on-year [12]. - Revenue growth varied by region, with North China and East China showing increases of 5.4% and 9.8% respectively, while Northwest China experienced a decline of 12.5% [12]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company successfully reduced its cost per ton by 6.6% year-on-year, leading to an overall improvement in gross profit margin by 3.1 percentage points to 40.7% [12]. - The company streamlined its workforce, reducing the number of employees by 1,440, which contributed to a decrease in overall expense ratios [12]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its performance in 2025, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.51 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.65 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25X, 22X, and 19X [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the total revenue was 51.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.401 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.21% [2][6] - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.928 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% year-on-year [11] - The company continues to maintain strong cash flow, with cash received from sales and services amounting to 182.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [11] Summary by Sections Revenue Analysis - The revenue from direct sales was 74.843 billion yuan, increasing by 11.32% year-on-year, while wholesale revenue was 95.769 billion yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year. The direct sales channel accounted for 43.87% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [11] - The "i Moutai" digital marketing platform generated 20.024 billion yuan in revenue, down 10.51% year-on-year, likely due to the delisting of Moutai 1935 from the platform in Q4 2024 [11] Profitability - The net profit margin for 2024 was 49.52%, a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 92.08%, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of around 75% for 2024, in line with its previously disclosed dividend plan for 2024-2026 [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected EPS of 73.98 yuan and 80.40 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21 and 19 times [11]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 客运量增长提速，油轮中东领涨 ——交运周专题 2025W17 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：国内客运量增长提速，票价跌幅收窄 海运：油轮中东领涨，集运持续阴跌 物流：蒙煤库存持续去化，大宗运价降幅收窄 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 [Table_Title 客运量增长提速，油轮中东领涨 2] ——交运周专题 2025W17 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：国内客运量增长提速，票价跌幅收窄 4 月 25 日，本周国内客运量增长提速，七日移动平均同比增加 10%，主要由于去年同期广深 雷暴天气频发，导致国内客运量基数较低；国际客运量延续高增，七日移动平均同比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 持仓低配程度加深，重α轻β特征突出 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度，公募基金公用事业板块重仓持股比例为 0.96%，环比上个季度降低 0.37 个百 分点，当期配置占比历史同期分位数为 37.7%，超配比例-2.03%。公用板块持仓已经回落至绝 对低位，低配程度持续加深。但在板块持仓回落的背景下，部分公司获得逆势增持，如火电中 电源机组所在区域价格更优的公司获得逆势增持，此外我们一直强调的绿电板块投资逻辑重视 赔率和福建海风得到市场验证，板块重α轻β特征突出。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 水电：龙头持仓均有降低，行业估值性价比提升 一季度在蓄能释放带动下，水电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.05% year-on-year, reaching 24.882 billion yuan, driven by a 4.62% increase in power generation and a 0.66% rise in electricity prices. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8.297 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.63% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, amounting to 5.385 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.508 billion yuan, representing a 41.56% year-on-year growth [2][6]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with financial expenses decreasing by 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in the first quarter of 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.882 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 8.297 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue is 5.385 billion yuan, and the net profit is 1.508 billion yuan [6][12]. Power Generation and Pricing - The total power generation for 2024 is expected to be 112.012 billion kWh, a 4.62% increase year-on-year. The average electricity price is projected to reach 0.22257 yuan/kWh, up 0.66% from the previous year [12]. - In Q1 2025, the company anticipates a power generation increase of 31.22% year-on-year, totaling 21.292 billion kWh, driven by strong demand and optimized scheduling [12]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced financial expenses, with a decrease of 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in Q1 2025. R&D expenses also saw a reduction of 19.49% in 2024 [12][2]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.54 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.04, 18.27, and 17.62 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.931 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.09%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 317 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.95%. The company is expected to benefit from improved transportation conditions and hotel project renovations, leading to stable revenue growth [2][6]. - The opening of the Chi-Huang high-speed railway in 2024, along with improved weather conditions, is anticipated to further increase visitor traffic to the mountains. Upgrades to hotels are expected to enhance both volume and pricing [2][6]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 377 million, 415 million, and 449 million, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 519 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, and a net profit of 45 million, marking a return to profitability [6]. - The total number of visitors to the scenic area reached 4.9224 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while the cable car service transported 9.8149 million visitors, up 3.25% year-on-year [12]. - The decline in profit despite increased visitor numbers was attributed to a decrease in ticket prices, adverse weather conditions, and increased depreciation from new investments [12]. Cost and Profitability - Operating costs increased by 4.98% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, primarily due to new investment projects still in the cultivation phase, leading to a gross margin of 51.78%, down 2.24 percentage points [12]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 6.03 percentage points to 17.61% due to rising costs and increased expense ratios [12]. Business Segments - Revenue from the scenic area business declined by 9.22%, while hotel and cable car businesses saw increases of 2.55% and 1.02%, respectively. The decline in scenic area revenue was mainly due to lower ticket prices [12]. - The company is undertaking several renovation and investment projects, including a 150 million upgrade to the Huangshan International Hotel and a joint venture to develop a cultural performance project [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from multiple favorable factors, including improved transportation and hotel renovations, leading to steady revenue growth. Visitor traffic is projected to increase with the opening of the Chi-Huang high-speed railway [2][12].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨恒顺醋业（600305.SH） [Table_Title] 恒顺醋业 2024 年年报点评：Q4 营收大幅提速， 盈利能力持续修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 恒顺醋业披露 2024 年年报，实现营业总收入 21.96 亿元（同比+4.25%）；归母净利润 1.27 亿 元（同比+46.54%），扣非净利润 1.13 亿元（同比+48.30%）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 恒顺醋业（600305.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 恒顺醋业 2024 2] 年年报点评：Q4 营收大幅提速， 盈利能力持续修复 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 恒顺醋业披露 2024 年年报，实现营业总收入 21.96 亿元（同比+4.25%）；归母净利润 1.27 亿 元（同比+46.54%），扣非净利润 1.13 亿元 ...

[Table_Summary] 3 月工业企业利润和营收同比增速双双录得回升。拆分来看，本次利润增速回升主要来自量和 利润率同比改善，价格则在低位继续震荡。从分工业门类来看，制造业利润回升明显，动能预 计主要源自于抢出口和设备更新持续拉动装备制造行业需求脉冲式回升。从企业经营角度，经 营压力边际有所改善，但库存延续被动回补趋势，反映整体需求继续偏弱运行。后续总需求能 否进一步改善，是驱动企业利润长期复苏的观察锚点。而 4 月政治局会议传递出中央对支撑内 需的信心和态度坚定，期待后续储备政策陆续出台承托需求韧性和企业利润增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 盈利增速脉冲式回升 ——1-3 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title 盈利增速脉冲式回升 2] ——1-3 月工业企业利润点评 事件描述 2025 年 4 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据：1- ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 预期与现实博弈强化，重视底部积极信号 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 在贸易冲击下，4 月以来，钢价和钢铁股持续回调。近期，受贸易冲突缓和的催化，市场上的 谨慎情绪有所消退，钢铁股走出企稳反弹的趋势。当前时点，有三大积极信号值得重视：1）钢 价和库存再度跌至低位，市场"人心思涨"；2）限产预期强化，盘面利润走扩对钢铁股上涨形 成驱动；3）地产预期改善，产业链有望受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 预期与现实博弈强化，重视底部积极信号 最新跟踪：供给收缩对冲需求季节性下滑，预期与现实博弈强化 4 月以来，基于成材利润尚可，供给涨至高位；叠加外需预期转弱，市场情绪谨慎， 共同压制成材和原 ...