丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 沃什的政策主张在于"降息+缩表、缩职能"，其目的在于重塑美联储公信力。但短期内顺利实施 的可能性并不高，原因在于："中期选举压力下，特朗普有迫切压降中长端利率的要求"和"缩表 推升期限溢价带动长端利率上行"之间存在冲突。这意味着，短期内降息有望、但缩表不可求。 而缩表推行不彻底，重塑美联储公信力就无从谈起，去美元化的趋势仍无法逆转。于市场而言， 短期"紧缩交易"预期不改长期"宽松交易"趋势。 分析师及联系人 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 沃什将带来什么：降息、缩表，缩职能 ——海外热点冷思考系列 3 [Table_Author] 报告要点 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 沃什将带来什么：降息、缩表，缩职能 2] ——海外热点冷思考系列 3 美东时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席。 事件评论 丨证券研究 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - Since 2025, the technology sector has seen price increases in various segments of computing power resources, recently spreading to the midstream cloud computing sector in overseas markets. The demand for AI, coupled with tight capacity in core segments, has shifted industry pricing towards "supply-demand pricing + value reassessment." Some segments are still in the early stages of price increases, which are expected to gradually transmit to the domestic market, suggesting investment opportunities in domestic computing power resources [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Price Trends**: Since the second half of 2025, there has been a significant upward trend in prices for storage and other computing power resources. For instance, memory prices surged by 171.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with expectations of further increases of 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and around 20% in Q2 2026. Major companies like Samsung have raised NAND flash contract prices by over 100% starting January 2026 [10][13] - **Market Dynamics**: The AI demand is robust, and the competition among tech giants for computing power resources is intensifying. For example, Meta's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to reach $135 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street's expectations. This surge in AI-related demand is creating a substantial supply-demand gap, particularly in storage chips, which is expected to lead to further price increases across various segments [10][13] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends focusing on key domestic leaders in computing power resources, including AI chips (e.g., Haiguang Information, Cambricon), CPUs (e.g., Haiguang Information), and cloud service providers (e.g., Kingsoft Cloud, Capital Online). Additionally, it suggests monitoring other quality stocks with strong fundamentals and high correlation within the industry chain [5][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the strategy differentiation of major financial institutions will reshape the bond market landscape. The trading attributes of banks will be enhanced, and the pressure to exchange floating profits will be reduced. If the regulatory constraints on interest - rate sensitivity indicators are relaxed, it may provide long - term bond allocation space for banks. Securities firms' proprietary trading will continue the aggressive strategy of "bond foundation, equity enhancement" with regulatory support. Wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" era, with product closure and defensive allocation becoming the mainstream. Public funds are expected to repair the liability side through the new fee regulations, the duration strategy may be reopened, and the use of hedging tools will increase. Insurance institutions will focus on long - term allocation, increasing their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - dividend assets. The overall trading attributes of the market will be enhanced, and the allocation strategies will gradually diversify [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Overall, it shows the characteristics of "configuration adjustment and trading enhancement". In 2026, if China follows the Basel regulatory new rules, large banks are expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of government bond allocation space, and the ability to undertake long - term bonds will be marginally improved. The trading attributes of state - owned large banks are gradually strengthening, and they will continue to maintain high trading activity in 2026. If the cost - performance of inter - bank certificates of deposit rises in the future, the bond - allocation strength of rural commercial banks may moderately recover [15]. - Constrained by the deepening of the asset - liability term mismatch, the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds is limited. However, if China implements the adjusted international regulatory standards, it is estimated that about 1 trillion yuan of bond - allocation capacity will be added for large banks. In 2025, the AC account proportion of various banks decreased, and the OCI account proportion increased. In 2026, although the pressure on banks to make up for the performance gap by realizing floating profits will weaken, there are still incentives to realize floating profits [16][21]. - State - owned large banks' trading volume of 7 - 10Y treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds in 2025 increased, and the proportion of trading volume also increased compared with the previous two years, showing an active trading strategy. It is expected that this high trading activity will continue in 2026 [29]. - Since the beginning of 2025, affected by the new capital regulations and the decline in the cost - performance of certificates of deposit, the bond - allocation behavior of rural commercial banks in the secondary market has significantly shrunk. If the cost - performance of certificates of deposit recovers and the capital occupation pressure eases in 2026, the bond - allocation strength may moderately recover [32][33]. 3.2 Wealth Management - In 2026, wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" operation mechanism. In terms of products, "fixed - income +", closed - end and minimum holding - period products will be used to deal with net - value fluctuations; in terms of operation, the management requirements for duration, leverage and liquidity will continue to increase, and the asset allocation will focus on stability and term matching [40]. - In 2026, in the context of low - interest rates and the full - completion of valuation rectification, the scale and number of "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow. The proportion of "fixed - income +" products in fixed - income wealth management is expected to rise steadily [41][42]. - After the full - completion of valuation rectification, the net - value stability constraint of wealth management products has been significantly enhanced. The closed - end and quasi - closed - end operation characteristics of new products are expected to be further strengthened in 2026 [44]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will pay more attention to the liquidity safety cushion. The proportion of high - liquidity assets in wealth management asset allocation is likely to remain relatively high [50]. - In 2026, wealth management drawdown is expected to be controllable and will change around interest - rate fluctuations. Wealth management institutions may deepen the application of multi - asset allocation strategies to reduce the impact of bond - market fluctuations on net value [52]. - In 2026, the allocation value of amortized - cost bond funds will be further highlighted. The re - investment demand of the expired funds of amortized - cost bond funds is expected to support the short - end credit - bond market [58]. 3.3 Public Funds - In 2026, with the implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds, the bond - market sentiment is expected to be moderately repaired, and the stability improvement of the liability side may create conditions for reopening the duration strategy. The development of innovative tools such as stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to introduce incremental funds, and the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase. The supervision of customized funds and dividend mechanisms will continue to be optimized [65]. - In 2025, the leverage ratio of bond funds decreased, and the duration fluctuated greatly. In 2026, the liability - side and asset - side durations of public funds are expected to increase [66]. - The implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds in 2026 is expected to promote the moderate repair of the bond market and the internal optimization of the bond - fund pattern [71]. - In 2026, the pure - bond fund market may face product - pattern adjustment. The smooth development of stock - bond constant ETFs may bring incremental funds to the equity and interest - rate bond markets and weaken the traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect in the short term [76]. - In 2026, the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase to manage risk exposure in the context of low - interest rates and high volatility in the bond market [79]. - In 2026, there is still room for optimization of customized funds and dividend mechanisms in the public - fund industry. The regulatory authorities may put forward rectification requirements for customized funds with a high institutional - holding ratio and optimize the dividend mechanism [82][84]. 3.4 Insurance - In 2026, the investment strategy of insurance institutions is expected to shift from "trading" to "allocation - based". The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds such as treasury bonds has declined, and the asset - allocation structure will be further optimized [87]. - In 2025, affected by the regulatory reduction of the liability - side pricing ceiling, new - policy attractiveness weakened, and premium growth slowed down. Insurance funds preferred a Carry - based strategy, with a decline in the turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and a stable or rising allocation weight [88]. - As of Q3 2025, bonds still accounted for more than 50% of insurance - fund asset allocation, but the growth rate of equity investment was relatively fast. In 2026, if the new fee regulations weaken the cost - performance of bond funds, some insurance funds may shift to equity assets, but it will not significantly affect their bond - market allocation [94]. - In 2026, under the dual - system drive of the new asset - liability regulations and new accounting standards, insurance institutions will significantly increase their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - grade general credit bonds and reduce the allocation of bank Tier 2 capital bonds. The proportion of participating insurance is expected to continue to increase, and the equity - asset allocation will focus on high - dividend and low - valuation stocks [100][101]. 3.5 Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading - In 2026, the bond - allocation of securities firms' proprietary trading will continue to focus on interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and the equity - allocation is expected to achieve "both quantity and quality improvement" under regulatory encouragement, with a preference for standardized products such as broad - based index constituent stocks and liquid ETFs [103]. - From March 2021 to November 2025, the bond - holding scale of securities firms' proprietary trading increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds rose. In 2026, the bond - holding scale is expected to continue to grow, and the credit - bond allocation will continue to concentrate on high - grade bonds [104][105]. - In 2025, the floating - profit scale of securities firms' proprietary trading turned from negative to positive, and they showed advantages in stop - profit operation and holding - cost control [109]. - Regulatory support for securities firms' proprietary trading to increase equity - asset allocation has increased. In 2026, securities firms may further increase their equity - asset allocation, with a possible preference for standardized products [114].

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨工商银行（601398.SH） [Table_Title] 大行工匠，基业长青 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们重点推荐工商银行，看好基本面稳健性和长期配置价值。1）资产负债表映射实体，伴随经 济结构转型，市占率进入上行周期。经济结构转型、新旧动能转换背景下，金融总量降速，银 行转向高质量发展。2）利率周期视角下，净息差筑底、核心营收反转。近七年的降息周期中， 银行业净息差创历史新低。目前利率周期低位运行，但下行空间受到约束，预计 2026 年利息 净收入将实现反转，大型银行的核心营收（利息及手续费）增速转正。3）资产质量韧性穿越地 产周期，风险指标波动低。目前 A/H 股 2026 年预期股息率 4.39%、5.37%。重点推荐，给予 "买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 SFC：BUT916 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S04 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 红马奔腾策略系列 1：从老红利到新红马之投资 范式 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前部分机构资产回报率承压，核心原因在于负债端久期长、成本刚性，而低利率环境下，固 收类资产收益率下行，权益类的传统红利投资股息下降，较难覆盖负债端成本。投资思路：预 期回报率高（3%~5%以上）、安全边际高（行业格局和估值企稳）的方向值得关注。1）寻找 未来股息率高的方向：通过分红率的提高来提供较高的股息水平，直接增厚股息回报；2）同时 估值不应大幅下滑：具有安全边际，避免因资本利得大幅损失（如股价下跌）抵消股息收益， 重点关注供给收缩/行业出清到尾声的细分行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% 关注自由现金流和稳住 ROE 是分红潜力的关键。一是从理论出发，稳定的自由现金流是保障 潜在股息率提升的重要基础，其通过影响利润与估值，提供持续的 ...

%% %% research.95579.com 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 碳中和系列："十五五"碳达峰决胜期，政策深化 下的投资机遇 %% %% 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在"双碳"战略的顶层设计与全国碳市场逐步深化的共同驱动下，中国经济的绿色转型已从理念 倡导进入实质性攻坚阶段。我们认为，这一波澜壮阔的转型进程将系统性地催生多层次、长周 期的产业投资机遇；其核心逻辑并非局限于单一赛道，而是围绕"能源系统重塑、工业绿色溢价、 降碳技术放量与配套服务崛起"四大维度展开的立体化投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 魏凯 赵超 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BUT911 SAC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing accelerated concentration, with state-owned enterprises leveraging scale, industrial chain advantages, and policy support to squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized private enterprises [2][4]. - Sub-sectors like landscaping engineering are under dual pressure from declining demand and intensified competition, leading to weakened revenues, profit pressures, and deteriorating financial structures [2][4]. - Some companies are leveraging low-efficiency asset restructuring, financial endowments, and business associations to strategically transition towards new infrastructure sectors, guided by policy directions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Concentration and Challenges - The concentration of the construction industry is continuously increasing, with the market share of state-owned construction enterprises rising from 46.9% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2024, while their output value share increased from 36.3% to 43.1% [4][15]. - The growth rate of infrastructure and fixed asset investment is declining, with a projected year-on-year decrease of -1.48% for infrastructure investment in 2025 [4][15]. - State-owned enterprises benefit from lower financing costs due to policy advantages and credit ratings, while private enterprises face high leverage and liquidity issues, necessitating a transformation [4][23]. Sub-sector Analysis and Transformation Factors - The report identifies sub-sectors with poor financial performance, particularly landscaping, building decoration, and engineering consulting, as having strong transformation needs [5][28]. - Landscaping and decoration sectors are experiencing declining revenues and high operational leverage, while the engineering consulting sector, despite slight revenue growth, shows high overall valuations indicating significant internal differentiation [5][28]. Transformation Directions and Methods - To achieve effective transformation, companies should align with national strategic directions, focusing on "hard technology" sectors like AI and blockchain, and "new consumption" sectors that cater to public demand [6][46]. - Common transformation methods include mergers and acquisitions, establishing subsidiaries for independent R&D, expanding existing qualifications and businesses, and forming strategic alliances [7][51]. Potential Transformation Targets - Companies with abundant cash flow, sufficient credit limits, and underperforming main businesses are identified as potential transformation targets, particularly in landscaping, building decoration, and engineering consulting sectors [8][46]. Key Support Factors for Transformation - Sufficient cash flow and credit limits are crucial for enabling potential transformations, allowing companies to quickly capture policy opportunities and reduce reliance on high-interest external financing [46][47]. Revitalizing Inefficient Assets - Inefficient assets can serve as low-cost entry points into new infrastructure sectors, with many old factories and idle warehouses meeting the requirements for transformation into data centers or energy storage bases [48][49]. New Shareholder Involvement - The introduction of new major shareholders is a focal point in the transformation of the construction industry, with examples of companies optimizing their ownership structures to leverage state resources and accelerate transitions into new sectors [51][52].

行业研究丨深度报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 周期调整的下半场 ——房地产总量预测框架及趋势展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经 4 年多的快速调整，中国房地产行业主要总量指标较高点均有明显下降，参考国际经验和 需求中枢，当前大概率已进入调整周期的下半场。预计 2026 年仍有挑战，但下半场特征愈发 明显，销售、开工等前端指标同比降幅有望收窄，而竣工等后端指标压力相对更大；若政策力 度超预期，则会有相对更好表现。当前股票位置较底部的溢价并不大，重视具备轻库存、好区 域和产品力的优质房企，以及拥有稳定现金流的经纪龙头、商业地产和央国企物管。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 周期调整的下半场 2] ——房地产总量预测框架及趋势展望 [Table_S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The sales volume of sanitation equipment in 2025 is projected to reach 79,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, marking the first year of positive growth since 2021. Notably, sales of new energy sanitation vehicles are expected to increase by 76.8%, with a cumulative penetration rate of approximately 21.7% [3][6][18] - The recovery in sales is primarily attributed to the advancement of national debt reduction policies, which are expected to further enhance the demand for sanitation equipment. Additionally, the "14th Five-Year Plan" carbon reduction policies are anticipated to drive the penetration and economic viability of new energy sanitation equipment [3][8][9] Summary by Sections Overview - In 2025, the sanitation equipment sales are expected to grow by 11.5%, with new energy sanitation vehicles experiencing a significant increase of 76.8%. The total sales volume is projected at 79,000 units, with December alone seeing a sales figure of 10,064 units, a 45.2% increase year-on-year [6][18][21] Market Structure - The market concentration for sanitation equipment in 2025 is indicated by a CR10 of 55.4%, a decrease from 58.6% in 2024. Major players include Yingfeng Environment with a market share of 17.0%, Yutong with 3.9%, and Fulongma with 3.8%. In the new energy segment, the CR10 is higher at 67.7%, with Yingfeng Environment leading at 30.6% [7][26][30] Electrification - The penetration rate of electric sanitation equipment in pilot cities is expected to reach approximately 31.6% in 2025. Excluding Xiong'an New Area, pilot cities are projected to account for 36.2% of total sales, with cities like Zhengzhou and Shenzhen showing significant electric penetration rates of 57.3% and 48.9% respectively [7][33][34] Marginal Changes - The effects of debt reduction are gradually being transmitted, with expectations for further increases in sanitation equipment sales in 2026. The core reason for the recovery in 2025 sales is attributed to the easing of local government financial pressures due to debt reduction policies [8][9] - New energy sanitation equipment is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies, with significant reductions in emissions compared to traditional fuel vehicles, enhancing its attractiveness in the market [8][9][21] Investment Logic - The growth rate of the sanitation equipment industry is primarily constrained by local fiscal and policy conditions. The dual logic of reduced local fiscal pressure from debt reduction and increased penetration of new energy sanitation vehicles driven by carbon reduction policies presents a favorable outlook for the industry [9][12]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 系列深度（一）：千亿星辰，商业竞速 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary] Robotaxi 具有理论上更高的行驶安全性、更低的运营成本以及具有运营/体验的优势，从传统出 租车/网约车向 Robotaxi 发展是 AI 发展的重要应用。当前行业的加速发展，是政策许可+技术 发展+商业化推动的共振结果。预计 2030 年国内 Robotaxi 保有量有望达到约 52 万辆，共享出 行车队渗透率约 10%，市场空间约 902 亿元。商业化落地验证是短中期跟踪 Robotaxi 行业的 核心主线，行业焦点从车内无安全员运营转向关注实现单车经济效益的能力。核心关注在城市 牌照拓展、车辆规模扩张及综合运营效率方面表现突出的行业参与者。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 韩轶超 宗建树 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S04905 ...