24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [行业层面 Table_Summary ummar ：造纸板块行业 y] ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings amid growing economic concerns[5] - Three main obstacles to rate cuts include potential inflation from tariffs, stable employment data, and the limited impact of Q1 GDP decline[5][10] - The Fed's patience is primarily due to greater concerns about inflation than economic downturns[10] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is expected to be the primary factor influencing the Fed's decision to cut rates, rather than inflation[14] - Current unemployment fluctuates between 4.0% and 4.2%, showing no significant deterioration in the job market[6] - If tariffs lead to increased layoffs, the unemployment rate could rise significantly, prompting a policy shift from the Fed[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The risk of recession this year is slightly higher than that of stagflation, with a potential unemployment rate nearing 5% by year-end under neutral conditions[22] - Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.3%, influenced heavily by a 41.3% increase in imports, which detracted 5 percentage points from GDP growth[10][11] - Potential risk factors include geopolitical tensions, unexpected rises in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected job market[28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable start in Q1 2025 with revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year [2][4] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its 6+6 brand matrix, emphasizing product innovation in the beer business, which is expected to enhance brand asset accumulation [4] - The company is actively responding to macro challenges by optimizing its distributor system and investment strategies, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 80% [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 49.1% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 48.1% by 2025 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.61 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.07, 21.12, and 19.93 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook following the merger with COFCO Packaging, indicating potential for improved operational quality and profitability [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 13.673 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, reflecting a 2.1% increase [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 55.74 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.0% year-on-year, largely due to the consolidation of COFCO's contributions [1]. - The company is focusing on innovation in metal packaging and filling services, with revenues of 121.23 million yuan and 1.66 million yuan respectively in 2024, showing growth of 0.7% and 10.0% year-on-year [2]. - The merger with COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance the company's operational synergy and scale, leading to improved profitability as the industry consolidates [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 13.843 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 24.919 billion yuan, indicating a substantial growth of 82.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.331 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 68.3% compared to 2024 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 11.2% in 2025, down from 16.3% in 2024 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings, including the introduction of a virtual health assistant, which is part of its strategy to strengthen its brand ecosystem [2]. - The company is also expanding into new product lines, such as pre-prepared meals and high-end nutritional products, to diversify its offerings and capture new market segments [2]. Industry Outlook - The two-piece can industry is undergoing consolidation, with the company positioned as a leader. The merger with COFCO is expected to improve the company's bargaining power and profitability as the industry stabilizes [3]. - The company anticipates that the integration will lead to enhanced operational efficiency and a recovery in profitability to reasonable levels as market conditions improve [3].

24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [行业层面 Table_Summary ummar ：造纸板块行业 y] ...

24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [关税影响初步落地，龙头海外产能优势凸显、短期订单 Table_Summary um ...

基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...

基础化工月报：三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观消 费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_ReportDate] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 月报 化工行业 张燕生 化工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹 柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86 010-83326712 邮 箱： yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [基础化工月报： Table_Title] 三氯乙烯等价格上行，我国甲醇表观 消费量首次突破 1 亿吨 [Table_Re ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 恒林股份(603661) 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2024 年报&2025 一季报。2024 全年公司实现收入 110.29 亿 元（同比+34.6%），归母净利润 2.63 亿元（同比-0.02%），扣非归母净利润 2.81 亿元（同比+19.5%）；单 Q4 收入 32.18 亿元（同比+33.0%），归母净利润-0.03 亿元（23Q4 亏损 1.03 亿元），扣非归母净利润 0.16 亿元（23Q4 亏损 1.03 亿 元）。25Q1 收入 26.54 亿元（同比+12.7%），归母净利润 0.52 亿元（同比 -49.5%），扣非归母净利润 0.53 亿元（同比-48.9%）。Q4 利润承压主要系年末 资产&信用减值集中计提（合计损失约 2.1 亿），其中厨博士商誉减值为 0.79 亿 元（厨博士商誉已计提完毕）。我们预计 Q1 跨境电商扩张驱动收入稳健增长， 盈利能力环比已稳定修复。 跨境高增，基本盘稳定。24 年办公家居/软体家居/板式家居 ...