证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 星环科技-U(688031.SH) 投资评级： 上次评级： [Table_A 庞倩倩 uthor计算机] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110006 邮 箱： pangqianqian@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 25 年 Q1 业绩逐渐恢复，大模型相关订单落地 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S 事件：星环科技 ummary]发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报，公司 2024 年实 现营收 3.71 亿元，同比下降 24.31%；实现归母净利润-3.43 亿元，亏损幅 度同比扩大；实现扣非净利润-3.80 亿元；2025Q1，公司实现营收 0.64 亿 元，同比增长 2.59 ...

工具出海龙头，品牌化+全球布局共铸成长 [Table_CoverStock] —巨星科技(002444)公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 S1500524120004 S1500525030005 S1500523080006 jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com gongyizhi@cindasc.com wangrui@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 王锐 机械行业首席分析师 [Table_CoverReportList] 相关研究 1.巨星科技：自主品牌高增，加速全球化布局 证券研究报告 公司研究 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 [Table_BaseDat 公司主要数据 | a] 收盘价（元） | 24.40 | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价波动区间 | 33.53-21.43 | | (元) | | | 最近一月涨跌幅(％) | 10.11 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.94 | | 流通 A 股比例(％) | 95.7 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 星环科技-U(688031.SH) 投资评级： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] 上次评级： [Table_A 庞倩倩 uthor计算机] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110006 邮 箱： pangqianqian@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 25 年 Q1 业绩逐渐恢复，大模型相关订单落地 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 8 日 [Table_S 事件：星环科技 ummary]发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报，公司 2024 年实 现营收 3.71 亿元，同比下降 24.31%；实现归母净利润-3.43 亿元，亏损幅 度同比扩大；实现扣非净利润-3.80 亿元；2025Q1，公司实现营 ...

工具出海龙头，品牌化+全球布局共铸成长 [Table_CoverStock] —巨星科技(002444)公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 S1500524120004 S1500525030005 S1500523080006 jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com gongyizhi@cindasc.com wangrui@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 王锐 机械行业首席分析师 [Table_CoverReportList] 相关研究 1.巨星科技：自主品牌高增，加速全球化布局 [Table_ReportType] 公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 巨星科技(002444) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 [Table_Chart] -20% 0% 20% 40% 24/05 24/09 25/01 巨星科技 沪深300 证券研究报告 公司研究 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 [Table_BaseDat 公司主要数据 | a] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable start in Q1 2025 with revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year [2][4] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its 6+6 brand matrix, emphasizing product innovation in the beer business, which is expected to enhance brand asset accumulation [4] - The company is actively responding to macro challenges by optimizing its distributor system and investment strategies, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 80% [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.8% [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 49.1% in 2023, with a return on equity (ROE) of 62.5% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.61 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.07, 21.12, and 19.93 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]

24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [关税影响初步落地，龙头海外产能优势凸显、短期订单 Table_Summary ummary] ] &盈利影响有限。2025 年 2 月/3 月特朗普政府分别向我国加征 10%/10%关税，4 月分批次将加征关税税率提 升至 145%。从短期出货影响来看，由于海外产能关税暂时豁免，各公司海外产能 出货&订单影响较小；国内产能出货分化，保温杯、功能性遮阳帘等 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook following the merger with COFCO Packaging, indicating potential for improved operational quality and profitability [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.673 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, reflecting a 2.1% increase [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 55.74 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.0% year-on-year, largely due to the consolidation of COFCO's contributions [1]. - The company is focusing on innovation in metal packaging and filling services, with revenues of 121.23 million yuan and 1.66 million yuan respectively in 2024, showing growth of 0.7% and 10.0% year-on-year [2]. - The merger with COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance the company's operational synergy and scale, leading to improved pricing power and profitability in the two-piece can industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 13.843 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.919 billion yuan, 26.116 billion yuan, and 27.419 billion yuan respectively, indicating a substantial growth forecast [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 1.331 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 68.3% compared to 2024 [5]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 11.2%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings, including the introduction of a virtual health assistant, which is part of its strategy to build its own brand ecosystem [2]. - The company is also expanding into new product lines and services, such as pre-prepared meals and high-end nutritional products, to diversify its revenue streams [2]. - The two-piece can industry is undergoing consolidation, and the company is positioned to benefit from this trend, enhancing its market leadership and pricing power [3]. Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin in Q1 2025 was reported at 13.6%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating short-term profitability pressures [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 3.4%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price adjustments in the two-piece can segment [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -35 million yuan in Q1 2025, impacted by merger-related expenses [3].

24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 造纸板块综述：周期触底、向上不足，龙 头聚焦产业链上下游延伸、差异化竞争优势放大 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [行业层面 Table_Summary ummar ：造纸板块行业 y] ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings amid growing economic concerns[5] - Three main obstacles to rate cuts include potential inflation from tariffs, stable employment data, and the limited impact of Q1 GDP decline[5][10] - The Fed's patience is primarily due to greater concerns about inflation than economic downturns[10] Group 2: Unemployment Rate as a Key Indicator - The unemployment rate is expected to be the primary factor influencing the Fed's decision to cut rates, rather than inflation[14] - Current unemployment fluctuates between 4.0% and 4.2%, showing no significant deterioration in the job market[6] - If tariffs lead to increased layoffs, the unemployment rate could rise significantly, prompting a policy shift from the Fed[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The risk of recession this year is slightly higher than that of stagflation, with a potential unemployment rate nearing 5% by year-end under neutral conditions[22] - Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.3%, influenced heavily by a 41.3% increase in imports, which detracted 5 percentage points from GDP growth[10][11] - Potential risk factors include geopolitical tensions, unexpected rises in international oil prices, and a weaker-than-expected job market[28]