证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 02 月 17 日 美国 1 月宏观月报：数据强劲、联储鹰派，降息仍需等待 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 1 月美国 CPI 同比 3.0%，核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，均超过预期。美国 1 月 整体 CPI 同比增速 3.0%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.9%；环比 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.2%；环比 0.4%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%。1 月 CPI 同环比读数均超过预期，市场担 忧的再通胀风险得到数据的"验证"，使得 2025 年首次降息的预期再次延 后。1 月通胀表现超预期主要系预期中的油价、房价上升和预期外的二手 车、医疗商品、汽车保险等超级核心分项价格走高。此外，1 月数据季调 或未充分考虑企业调整价格的季节性因素，CPI 可能被高估。后续建议关 注价格调整结束后 2 月核心 CPI 是否仍然高企 ...

Inflation Data - The US CPI for January increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[3] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%[3] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.5%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[3] Employment Data - In January, the US added 143,000 non-farm jobs, lower than the expected 175,000 and the previous value of 307,000[4] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%, aligning with the previous expectation of 4.1%[4] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for November and December, increasing November's figure from 227,000 to 261,000 and December's from 256,000 to 307,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance indicates that inflation and employment data do not support an imminent rate cut, pushing back market expectations for the first rate cut in 2025 to October[5] - Market sensitivity to economic data remains high, influenced by the policies of the Trump administration regarding tariffs, immigration, and taxes[5] Risk Factors - Persistent inflation exceeding expectations and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve pose risks to the economic outlook[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, new social financing (社融) reached 7.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.0%[10] - The increase in social financing was primarily supported by credit and government bonds, while foreign currency loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills were the main drag[10] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 1.74 trillion yuan, up 280 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans increased by 3.46 trillion yuan, up 150 billion yuan year-on-year, ending a 10-month streak of year-on-year declines[2] Group 2: Resident Financing and Demand - Resident short-term loans decreased by 49.7 billion yuan, down 402.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans added 493.5 billion yuan, down 133.7 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The decline in short-term loans is attributed to the "old-for-new" policy and reduced pressure from existing mortgage rates, leading to a decrease in liquidity needs[2] - In January, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities seeing declines of 3% and 29.1%, respectively[2] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Outlook - M1 growth rate fell to 0.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%[3] - The decline in M2 is linked to adjustments in the equity market and a shift of funds from non-bank deposits back to wealth management products[3] - The timing for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions may be delayed, as the central bank emphasizes the need for more signals indicating sustainable credit demand[5]

GDP Performance - The actual GDP growth rate for Q4 was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, while the annual growth rate was 5.0%, achieving the set target[3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, indicating a "U"-shaped growth pattern throughout the year[12] - The trade surplus for 2024 reached $992.2 billion, the highest in nearly a decade, with the surplus accounting for approximately 23% of the annual GDP increase[13] Production Insights - The industrial capacity utilization rate rose significantly to 76.2% in Q4, the highest since March 2022[22] - Industrial value-added growth in December was 6.2%, returning to above 6% for the first time since April, driven by export demand[22] - Manufacturing value-added growth in December was 7.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[22] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for December was 2.2%, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%, slightly higher than the previous year[26] - Broad infrastructure investment growth slowed to 9.2%, while narrow infrastructure investment showed a slight recovery, indicating reduced fiscal pressure on local governments[26] - Real estate investment in December decreased by 13.3%, with an annual decline of 10.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[29] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December rebounded to 3.7%, with a notable increase to 4.2% when excluding automobile sales[44] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, particularly in household appliances, contributing to a 13.1% growth in essential consumption[45] - The early timing of the 2025 Spring Festival led to increased pre-holiday purchasing, further supporting retail growth[44]

Group 1: CPI Overview - December US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, also in line with forecasts[3] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, consistent with expectations, and core CPI increased by 0.2%, also meeting forecasts[3] - The market's concerns over rising inflation have eased, leading to a shift in the anticipated first interest rate cut from July to June 2025[3][6] Group 2: Energy and Core CPI Insights - December energy CPI decreased by 0.5% year-on-year but increased by 2.6% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rising by 4.4%[4] - Core CPI unexpectedly slowed to 3.2% due to a decline in used car prices, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%[5] - Housing CPI decreased to 4.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth rate remained stable at 0.3%[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI data release, US stocks rebounded, and bond yields fell, boosting confidence in potential interest rate cuts[6] - Current CME data indicates a 25 basis point rate cut is now expected in June, compared to previous expectations of July[6] - Future risks include potential unexpected inflation performance and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy[7]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 01 月 16 日 12 月金融数据点评：财政发力拉动社融增速，居 民信贷持续改善 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 陈国文 分析师 魏争 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320524100001 投资要点： 政府债多增，社融存量同比改善。社会融资规模存量同比增速边际改善，录 得 8%，社融增量当月值同比多增。表内融资方面，人民币贷款同比少增， 外币贷款同比多降，表内融资整体对社融形成拖累。表外融资方面，信托贷 款增量为正，但同比少增；委托贷款和未贴现银行承兑汇票增量为负，但同 比多增。直接融资方面，政府债券融资处于高位，是拉动社融增量的最大贡 献项。在化债背景下，用于债务置换的特殊再融资专项债发行推进，发行额 度在年内使用完毕，是推动地方债券融资的主要原因。企业债券融资同比 多增，股票融资同比少增。 信贷同比少增，企业中长贷少增幅度较大。贷款当月值同 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 01 月 14 日 12 月外贸数据点评："抢出口"迹象显著 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 投资要点： 抢出口支撑下，出口增速超预期。以美元计价，12 月出口同比增速 10.7%，高于市场预期，环比增速创五年以来新高。单月贸易顺差近五年 来首次突破 1000 亿美元，全年贸易顺差创近十年以来新高。全球制造业 景气度低迷背景下，12 月出口表现亮眼，指向推动出口增长更可能多是 结构性因素，这与我们前期判断相符："抢出口"对出口的拉动显著。 对美出口大幅提高，东盟地区贡献最大。12 月，我国对发达经济体出口 多数回升，其中，对美国出口增速大幅提高，从上月 8.0 上升至 15.6%。 我国对东盟出口增速继续维持高增。从贡献度看，东盟、美国、欧盟对出 口贡献显著。全年看，东盟地区对出口贡献最大，共拉动出口 1.9 个百分 点，其中，越南拉动出口 0.7 个百分点，与美国对出口拉 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 01 月 14 日 美国 12 月非农点评：美国就业连续超预期，降息预期再压缩 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 美国 12 月非农新增 25.6 万人，失业率为 4.1%，就业表现超预期。12 月 新增就业彭博一致预期为 16.5 万，新增就业前值 21.2 万，失业率预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%。家庭调查（CPS）口径的劳动力人数上升 24.3 万人， 劳动参与率持平 62.5%。数据公布同时，劳工部修订 10-11 月新增非农就 业数据，10 月上修至 4.3 万，11 月下修至 21.2 万，共上修 1.6 万。回顾 2024 年，平均每月新增非农就业人数 19.7 万人，劳动力市场有所转弱但 仍有韧性，且近两期非农表现超预期，市场担忧美联储未来降息幅度严重 不足，预计 1 月降息可能性极低，2025 年全年降息一次。 服务业就业为新增就业主力，商品生产就业较为低迷。12 月服务业 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2024 年 12 月 16 日 11 月金融数据点评：结构性改善的延续性持续验证 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 陈国文 分析师 魏争 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320524100001 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2024 年 12 月 12 日 11 月外贸数据点评：出口维持韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 投资要点： 高基数下，出口维持韧性。以美元计价，11 月出口同比增速 6.7%，虽然 回落，但韧性不减：一是出口回补结束，增速自然有所回落；二是去年年 末基数较大，高基数拖累下增速仍实现年内中上水平，指向出口动能不 弱。全球制造业景气回暖或为出口韧性来源之一。11 月，美国、英国、新 西兰等国的央行继续降息，全球主要经济体制造业景气度初步改善。往前 看，全球制造业景气度或波动回升，对我国外需或形成一定支撑。 分地区看，"抢出口"或支撑对美出口。回补效应消失后，我国对美出口 仍维持较高增速，可能是"抢出口"的支撑。我国对东盟出口略有放缓； 对俄罗斯出口增速从高位回落，可能是中俄双方的支付结算问题的影响进 一步加深。从拉动点数上看，东盟、美国对出口贡献显著；俄罗斯边际贡 献由正转负。 分产品 ...