1 | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | 2 月 CPI 同比转正，结束了此前连续四个月的同比负增长，这主要源于"春节错月"效应反转，食品 和旅游出行服务价格大涨带动整体物价水平显著走高；从环比来看，2 月物价增长动能仍然较为温和。预 计 3 月 CPI 同比涨幅将会回落，未来一段时间仍将低位运行，其中一个原因是楼市低迷对居民消费心理有 一定负面影响。PPI 方面，2 月国际原油价格上行，但因国内商品整体价格偏弱调整，当月 PPI 环比仍维 持跌势。同时，由于上年同期基数走势相对稳定，当月 PPI 同比降幅有所扩大。 一、2 月 CPI 同比转正，结束了此前连续四个月的同比负增长，这主要源于春节错月效应反转，食品 和旅游出行服务价格大涨带动整体物价水平显著走高；从环比来看，2 月物价增长动能仍然较为温和。预 计 3 月 CPI 同比涨幅将会回落，未来一段时间仍将低位运行，这也为宏观政策向稳增长方向发力提供了较 大空间。 东方金诚宏观研究 整体上看，2 月 CPI 同比转正，意味着通缩风险弱化。不过，2 月 CPI 环比上涨 1.0%，尽管较去年春 节月份（1 ...

Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The 2024 GDP growth target is set at "around 5.0%", consistent with market expectations and the actual growth rate of 5.2% in 2023[7] - The fiscal deficit target for 2024 is 3.0%, with an additional 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, bringing the effective deficit rate to around 3.8%[4] - New local government special bond issuance is set at 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year[9] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - Monetary policy in 2024 will remain "flexible and targeted", with potential for further RRR cuts and interest rate reductions[12] - Market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably ample, with a slight downward trend in market interest rates and reduced volatility[5] - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized to direct financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation and green development[14] Real Estate and Debt Risk Management - Real estate support policies are expected to intensify, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increased financing support for private developers[15] - Local government debt risk management will be a key focus, with expanded issuance of special refinancing bonds and debt restructuring efforts[5] Policy Consistency and Market Confidence - Macro policy consistency will be enhanced to ensure alignment across fiscal, monetary, industrial, and employment policies, aiming to stabilize market expectations[16] - Efforts to improve the policy environment for private enterprises include addressing payment delays and market access barriers, with a focus on quantitative metrics and public sentiment[18]

| --- | --- | |---------------------|-------------------------------------------| | | 东方金诚宏观研究 | | 春节因素扰动明显，2 | 月官方制造业和服务业 PMI 指数"一降一升" | | | ———— 2024 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 | | | 王青 闫骏 冯琳 | 2 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 2 月制造业新订单指数为 49%，与上月持平，连续 5 个月处于收缩区间。当月反映需求不足的企业 占比超过 60%，需求不足问题仍然突出。我们判断，房地产行业低迷背景下，居民消费信心受到影响， 是制造业需求不足的主要原因。这一点并未因春节消费旺季到来而有所改变。更为重要的是，2 月央行 降准落地、5 年期以上 LPR 报价大幅下调 0.25 个百分点，城市房地产融资协调机制也加速落地，稳增 长政策明显发力，但对市场需求的提振效应尚不明显，背后是 2 月楼市继续处于低迷状态。这是当前 影响宏观经济运行及市场需求的最重要因素。 其他市场比较关注的分项指数方面，2 月制造业 PMI 中的两个价格指数"一升一降"。其中， ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing Adjustments - The 5-year LPR was adjusted down to 3.95% from 4.2%, while the 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%[12] - The reduction in the 5-year LPR is driven by a decrease in bank funding costs due to a 1 trillion yuan long-term fund release from the recent reserve requirement ratio cut, saving banks approximately 9 billion yuan annually[2] - Since the LPR reform in August 2019, there have been three separate downward adjustments of the LPR, primarily influenced by similar reductions in bank funding costs[2] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The official manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory since Q4 2023, indicating a weakening macroeconomic environment and increasing the necessity for counter-cyclical monetary policy[6] - The 5-year LPR serves as a pricing benchmark for long-term loans, and its significant reduction is deemed necessary to support the real estate market and stimulate investment demand[3] - The current low inflation environment, with February CPI at -0.8% and PPI at -2.5%, suggests that actual financing costs are rising, necessitating further policy rate cuts to alleviate pressure on nominal loan rates[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - There is a high likelihood of further MLF rate cuts in the short term, which would lead to additional downward adjustments in both LPR terms, thereby supporting overall economic demand[18] - The regulatory framework is expected to facilitate lower mortgage rates for first and second homes, as indicated by recent policy adjustments in major cities[7] - The overall strategy aims to achieve a soft landing for the real estate sector, with a focus on stabilizing housing loan rates as a key measure[7]

Monetary Policy Insights - The MLF operation scale in February was 500 billion, with an MLF maturity amount of 499 billion, indicating a slight increase in operations[2] - The MLF interest rate remained unchanged at 2.50%, consistent with the previous period, reflecting a cautious approach amid recent monetary policy adjustments[8] - The recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to release over 1 trillion in funds, supporting credit growth and government bond issuance[2] Economic Indicators - The CPI in February showed a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, with a widening drop of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[9] - The PPI also declined by 2.5% year-on-year, although the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in industrial prices[9] Future Projections - There is a significant likelihood of MLF interest rate cuts in the short term, which would signal proactive growth policies and potentially lower financing costs for the real economy[5] - The anticipated adjustments in LPR rates, with a possible reduction of 5 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, could further ease borrowing costs for businesses and households[4] - The need for macroeconomic policy adjustments is heightened due to the ongoing contraction in manufacturing PMI, which has remained in the contraction zone for over three months[4]

1 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------| | | | | | ——美联储 1 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | 研究发展部分析师 白雪 李晓峰 | 美联储主席鲍威尔在当天会后举行的新闻发布会上表示，联邦基金利率很可能处于本轮紧缩周期 峰值。如果经济发展与预期大体一致，美联储将开始调整政策力度。但他同时表示，根据本次会议， 联邦公开市场委员会"不太可能在 3 月达到信心水平，并确定 3 月是采取行动（降息）的时机"。 一、整体来看，本次会议美联储政策立场转向中性。一方面，确定加息周期已经结束，暗示政策 将向正常化转向，为年内降息打下铺垫；另一方面，明确反驳了 3 月降息的可能性，表示降息并不具 备紧迫性。 2 我们认为，美联储这一政策立场背后的原因在于，一方面，自去年 12 月会议以来的经济与通胀 数据来看，通胀、经济延续下行的趋势较为确定，为年内降息打开了空间。通胀方面延续了温和降温 趋势，其中美联储看重的核心 PCE 通胀环比年化已经回落到 2%以下——3 个月环比年化为 1.5%，6 个 月环比年化为 1.9%，通胀 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | | 东方金诚宏观研究 | | 春节错月导致 1 月 CPI 同比降幅扩大，2 | 月有望转正 ——2024 年 1 月物价数据点评 | PPI 方面，1 月 PPI 环比维持跌势，主要原因是内需仍然较弱，近期国内主导的钢铁、水泥、煤炭等 大宗商品价格稳中偏弱，同时下游商品出厂价格涨价动力也显不足。不过，在基数走低支撑下，当月 PPI 同比跌幅仍延续收敛。 一、1 月 CPI 同比降幅扩大，主要是受春节错月基数上升影响，当月食品价格同比降幅显著扩大；另 外，同样受上年同期基数上升影响，1 月服务价格同比涨幅也有所收窄。从最新物价上涨动能来看，1 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.3%，与历史上春节前同期相比稳中偏低。不过，当月核心 CPI 同比仍保持 0.4%的稳定正 增长，意味着尽管整体 CPI 连续四个月同比负增长，但当前并未形成通缩格局，而低通胀现象值得高度重 视。 其次，寒假到来叠加春节临近，1 月出行娱乐等服 ...

Credit and Financing - In January 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 4.92 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2 billion, marking a historical monthly high[1] - The total social financing scale in January reached 6.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 506.1 billion, also a record high[1][15] - The structure of new social financing showed improvement, with government bond financing decreasing by 119.3 billion year-on-year, indicating a shift from a "government strong, enterprise weak" scenario[15][26] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% year-on-year at the end of January, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[1][27] - The narrow money supply (M1) saw a significant increase of 5.9%, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous month, driven by the activation of corporate deposits before the Spring Festival[1][17] Economic Policy and Outlook - The continuous implementation of stable growth policies is aimed at reversing the contraction in the official manufacturing PMI index, which has been in a contraction zone for four consecutive months[12][26] - Future structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting weak sectors of the economy, including small and micro enterprises, the real estate industry, and key areas like technological innovation and green development[8][26]