◼ 核心观点 主要客户需求向好，规模效应驱动业绩增长 公司主要客户赛力斯、理想、吉利等排产需求向好，据 Marklines，24 年产量分别约 49.64万辆、51.04 万辆和 267.51 万辆，同比分别约+94%、 +34%和+41%，24Q4 产量分别约 12.64 万辆、16.04 万辆和 88.72 万 辆，同比分别约+5%、+17%和+31%，环比分别约-5%、+4%和+33%。 此外，据 Marklines，小鹏 Mona M03 热销，24Q4 产量约 4.04 万辆， 环比约+210.91%。 盈利能力强劲，24Q4 净利率创季度新高 博俊科技(300926) 公司研究/公司点评 24Q4 业绩表现亮眼，优质客户持续放量 ——24 年业绩点评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收约 42.27 亿元，同比约 +62.55%；归母净利润约 6.13 亿元，同比约+98.74%。其中 24Q4，营 收约 13.65 亿元，同比约+51.67%，环比约+19.82%；归母净利润约 2.45 亿元，同比约+93.41%，环比约+80.79%。 2024 年公司毛利率约 ...

广博股份(002103) 公司研究/公司深度 广誉"文具之都"，博采 IP"甬"新 ——广博股份（002103）深度报告 ◼ 核心观点 国内文教用品龙头企业，2024 前三季度公司业绩实际大幅增长。公司 是国内文教办公用品龙头企业之一。2024Q1-3，公司实现营收 17.58 亿 元，归母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比增速分别为-1.45%和-11.41%。2023 年 同期公司因收回部分汇元通业绩补偿款及唯品会调解款而增加公司利 润 5,484.84 万元，扣除上述因素影响，公司 2024 年 1-9 月净利润较上 年同期有较大幅度增长。 办公直销行业稳健增长，持续培育中长期发展动能。公司依托专业的 文化物资 集采平台——广博商城，聚焦政府及大中型企业对于各类办 公物资的集中化、电商化采购。2024 年陆续中标南方电网、国电投、 中国有色集团、华润万象生活等集采项目，助力公司销售业务拓展。 关于产品供应品类方面，公司办公直销也将不断拓展 MRO、员工福 利等品类，加强品牌间合作，抢占数字化采购市场更大市场份额，培 育中长期增长动能。 中国"谷子经济"增长较快，公司积极布局文创产品，有望充分受益。 艾媒咨询数 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant inflows into broker ETFs, indicating a positive outlook on the continuous improvement of the brokerage sector's fundamentals. Despite a 3.2% decline in the brokerage sector this week, broker ETFs experienced a net inflow for five consecutive days, with a weekly net inflow being the second highest in the past year. As of this week, 17 brokerages have reported their 2024 performance, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders. The A-share market has remained active this year, with a notable recovery in the equity market compared to the same period last year, suggesting that the brokerage sector's fundamentals will continue to improve in Q1 2025 [5][19][21]. Summary by Sections Market News - China's financial opening is progressing steadily, with four foreign-owned brokerages now operating. In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of brokerage mergers and acquisitions surged by 432%, with leading brokerages capturing nearly 70% of the market share. Tiger Brokers reported a 65% increase in net profit last year, with a nearly 28-fold increase in Q4. Zheshang Securities acquired 30 million shares of Guodu Securities for 57.042 million yuan [2][53]. Data Tracking - The securities index (Shenwan) fell by 3.22%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 15,497 billion yuan, down 6.4% week-on-week but up 75.2% year-on-year. The margin trading balance reached 1,937.4 billion yuan, with a year-to-date average margin balance increasing by 20.7% year-on-year. The newly established equity funds totaled 14.18 billion units this week, up 39.2% week-on-week [3][4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with high trading elasticity and beta attributes, such as Dongfang Caifu. With the recovery of the equity market and the rise of passive investment, it recommends attention to leading brokerages with advantages in equity asset management and ETF management, including CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities. Additionally, brokerages with merger and acquisition expectations are highlighted [6][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - Tencent's self-developed deep thinking model, "T1," has been officially released, enhancing reasoning capabilities through large-scale reinforcement learning and optimization for scientific and coding challenges. The model utilizes a Hybrid-Mamba-Transformer architecture, reducing computational complexity and memory usage, thus lowering training and inference costs. The API is available on Tencent Cloud, with input priced at 1 yuan per million tokens and output at 4 yuan per million tokens [1][23] - Tencent also launched five new open-source 3D generation models, improving generation speed, detail, and material expression, along with an upgraded 3D AI creation engine that supports multi-view input and model optimization [2][24] - Kunlun Wanwei has open-sourced the Skywork R1V multimodal reasoning model, achieving top scores in logical reasoning and mathematical analysis on benchmark tests, and successfully transferring text reasoning capabilities to visual tasks [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry chain, recommending attention to investment opportunities in the IaaS layer, specifically highlighting companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMAZON) [4][26]

宏观研究/宏观点评 | 日期: | 2025年03月25日 | | --- | --- | | 分析师: | 高明 | | E-mail : | gaoming@yongxingsec.com | | SAC 编号: | S1760524050003 | 相关报告: 《科技为锋、制造为翼、消费为体》 -2025年03月07日 《财政政策的空间、节奏与侧重点》 -2025年02月17日 《把握政策取向,讲求时机力度》 -2024年12月13日 财政支出逆周期增长 1至2月财政收支分析 核心观点 一、财政收入压力仍在,但支出保持逆周期增长。2025年1-2月公共 财政收入累计同比-1.6 %(2024年为1.3 %),公共财政支出累计同比 3.4%(2024年为3.6%):政府性基金收入累计同比-10.7%(2024年 为-12.2 %),政府性基金支出累计同比 1.2 %(2024年为 0.2 %)。 二、公共财政支出结构: 1-2月公共财政支出 45.096 亿元。其中中央 本级财政支出占比 11.6%,同比 8.6 %(2024年为 6.5 %):地方财政 支出占比 88.4%。 同比 2.7 %(2024 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [7] Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce is focusing on expanding pilot programs in education and culture, which is expected to benefit the industry chain [19][33] - The Shanghai Film Creation Conference was held to enhance Shanghai's influence in the global cultural landscape, promoting integration of culture, tourism, and commerce [20][33] - The Game Developers Conference (GDC) 2025 opened, with Chinese game companies participating and notable awards received, indicating potential benefits for the gaming sector [21][34] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The Ministry of Commerce is actively researching the expansion of pilot programs in education and culture, which is anticipated to benefit the industry chain [19] - The Shanghai Film Creation Conference aims to enhance Shanghai's global cultural influence and foster new economic growth points [20] - The GDC 2025 showcased Chinese game developers, with awards indicating a positive outlook for the gaming sector [21] 2. Market Review - The A-share media index fell by 4.96%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points [23] - Among the seven sub-sectors, the gaming sector experienced the largest decline at 7.27%, while advertising marketing showed the least decline at 2.36% [26][28] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on educational companies such as Xueda Education, Kede Education, and Action Education [21] - In the film sector, Light Media and Wanda Film are highlighted as potential investments [21] - For gaming, companies like Kaiying Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Gigabit are suggested for attention [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [7] Core Viewpoints - NAND prices are experiencing an upward trend due to supply reductions and increased demand from AI applications, with an average price change of 0.93% for 22 NAND product categories last week [1] - DRAM prices are also rising, with an average increase of 2.34% across 18 product categories, driven by strong demand for large-capacity storage [2] - SK Hynix has made a technological breakthrough by showcasing its 12-layer HBM4 samples, which are expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025, offering over 2TB per second data processing speed [2][29] Summary by Sections NAND Market - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix have joined the price increase trend for storage chips, with NAND prices rebounding faster than expected [1][30] - The current market is characterized by a general price increase due to manufacturers controlling supply and a strong demand for large-capacity storage [3][31] DRAM Market - The MemoryS 2025 summit highlighted that server memory consumption has surpassed that of mobile devices, indicating a supply-demand imbalance for large-capacity storage [2][29] - The demand for HBM in the DRAM sector is projected to grow significantly, with AI applications driving this trend [2] HBM Market - SK Hynix's 12-layer HBM4 is a significant advancement, expected to enhance performance by over 60% compared to the previous generation [2][29] - The demand for HBM is anticipated to accelerate due to the rapid development of advanced computing chips [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the growth in the HBM industry, such as Saiteng Co., Yishitong, and Lianrui New Materials [4] - For storage chips, companies like Dongxin Co. and Zhaoyi Innovation are recommended due to the expected recovery in the industry driven by supply-side price increases and AI demand [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [7] Core Insights - Nvidia launched the Blackwell Ultra GPU and CPO switches at the GTC 2025 conference, marking a significant advancement in AI capabilities with a performance increase of 2.5 times compared to previous models [18][30] - The Chinese government has included "deep-sea technology" as a strategic emerging industry, emphasizing its importance in national development and security [19][31] - Aurora Star successfully completed China's first 400Gbps inter-satellite laser communication test, enhancing satellite internet capabilities [19][31] Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Communication Index fell by 3.85% from March 17 to March 21, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.56 percentage points [21][26] - Within the Shenwan Communication sub-sectors, communication services dropped by 5.19%, while communication equipment decreased by 3.04% [22][24] - The overall performance of overseas indices remained weak, with the Nasdaq showing a slight increase of 0.17% [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as optical modules, operators, and communication equipment [20] - Specific companies to watch include: - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng - Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Communication Equipment: ZTE Corporation, Unisplendour [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4][6]. Core Insights - In January-February 2025, China's total retail sales reached 8.37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.30 percentage points [2]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 7.68 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [2]. - E-commerce penetration is slowing, while offline convenience stores and specialty stores are performing well [2]. - Online retail sales reached 2.28 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while physical goods online retail sales were 1.86 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [2]. - The food and beverage sector showed resilience, with retail sales of staple foods increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January-February, total retail sales were 739.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [3]. - Restaurant income grew by 4.3% year-on-year, driven by the Spring Festival [3]. - Essential consumption categories like staple foods showed strong growth, while discretionary consumption exhibited mixed performance [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment focus one: The Spring Festival effect is expected to boost sales in the gold and jewelry sector, with long-term growth driven by new gold processing technologies. Companies to watch include Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Da Sheng, and Chao Hong Ji [4]. - Investment focus two: As policies to stimulate consumption take effect, offline sales are expected to recover steadily. Traditional supermarkets are undergoing reforms, with companies like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket recommended for attention [4]. - Investment focus three: The e-commerce sector is seeing improved competition dynamics, with major platforms enhancing their strategic positioning. Companies like Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and JD Group are suggested for monitoring [4].