分析师：唐俊男 登记编码：S0730519050003 tangjn@ccnew.com 021-50586738 研究助理：王兴广 登记编码：S0730123120001 wangxg1@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 电气设备相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券，聚源 -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 28% 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 电气设备 沪深300 相关报告 《电气设备行业月报：宏观信心增强，海外 需求不减，关注输变电行业龙头》 2025-01- 27 《电气设备行业年度策略：电气设备行业三 大驱动：电网投资景气、配网智能升级、出 海机遇凸显》 2024-12-13 《电气设备行业月报：增量政策提振信心， 国际需求稳定增长，关注输变电行业龙头》 2024-12-03 联系人：李智 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 28 日 ⚫ 电气设备 2 月表现强于沪深 300 指数。截至 2 月 27 日收盘，电 气设备指数当月上涨 8.18%，跑赢沪深 300 指数(3.96%)4.2 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -14% -8% -3% 2% 8% 13% 19% 24% 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,388.06 | 0.23 | | 深证成指 | | 10,927.51 | -0.26 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,968.12 | 0.21 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,799.44 | 0.28 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,028.99 | -0.38 | | 中证 | 1000 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound after a dip, with the index finding support around 3353 points during the trading session on February 27, 2025. The market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with strong performances from sectors such as beverages, food and drink, energy metals, and batteries [3][6][15]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.06 points, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,927.51 points, down 0.26%. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% [7][15]. Sector Performance - The beverage, food and drink, energy metals, and battery sectors showed notable gains, while sectors such as communication equipment, power equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and optical electronics underperformed [3][6][15]. - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets declined, with the commercial retail, food and drink, battery, beauty care, and tourism sectors leading in gains. Conversely, sectors like communication equipment, power equipment, and photovoltaic equipment saw significant outflows of capital [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The current average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are 14.30 times and 39.79 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [15]. - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 20,422 billion, above the median level for the past three years, suggesting robust market activity [15]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in sectors such as consumption, batteries, energy metals, and gaming [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pet food production has shown counter-cyclical growth, with a 9.3% increase in pet feed production in 2024, reaching 1,599,000 tons [27][28] - The "No. 1 Document" for 2025 introduces the concept of "new agricultural productivity," emphasizing the need for technological advancements in agriculture [29][30] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index fell by 2.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which dropped by 2.99% [10] - The pet food sector showed strong performance, while the aquatic processing sector faced declines [10] Livestock Industry Data Tracking - In January 2025, the average price of live pigs was 15.77 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25% but a year-on-year increase of 10.82% [14] - The white feather chicken price averaged 3.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline [22] - The report indicates a rebound in the price of piglets, with a 12.57% month-on-month increase [14] Pet Food - Pet food exports showed significant growth, with a 31.6% year-on-year increase in quantity and a 14.7% increase in value in December 2024 [26] - The overall feed production in China decreased by 2.1%, but pet feed production increased, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [27][28] Policy Developments - The 2025 "No. 1 Document" emphasizes stabilizing grain planting areas and improving yield and quality, which is crucial for food security [29] - The document introduces "new agricultural productivity," focusing on the application of biotechnology and digital technologies in agriculture [30] Price Tracking of Major Agricultural Products - The report notes that corn prices stabilized in January 2025, while soybean meal prices saw a rebound [32][33]

Economic Performance and Comparison - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with the growth target achieved under supportive policies [6][9] - Henan Province's GDP reached 635.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, ranking sixth nationally and first in Central China [6][16] - The industrial production in Henan accelerated, with a significant increase in the added value of industries above designated size, growing by 8.1% [18][19] Macro Policy Tracking - In 2024, a series of policies were introduced to promote economic stability, improve the capital market, and deepen reforms [6][29] - Henan's government implemented policies to stabilize the economy and support technological innovation, including plans for logistics and consumption upgrades [36][37] Securities Market Performance - In 2024, the Henan Index increased by 5.36%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [6] - The top three A-share performers in Henan were Hengtuo Kaiyuan (141.24%), Yutong Bus (114.67%), and Huifeng Diamond (112.36%) [6] Listed Companies - By the end of 2024, Henan had 137 listed companies, with a total market value of 1,397.33 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.98% increase from the previous year [6][19] - In 2024, two companies completed their IPOs in Henan, while ten companies withdrew their applications [6][20] Investment Recommendations - In 2025, it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange, as well as those with merger and acquisition potential [6][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a significant recovery since February 6, with an overall increase of 3.29% by February 25, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 2.16% during the same period [7][8]. - The recovery in the food and beverage sector is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, such as promoting new energy vehicles and supporting tourism and housing improvements [7]. - Key segments within the food and beverage industry, such as dairy products, liquor, snacks, and health products, have shown notable performance, with many small-cap stocks being particularly sensitive to market sentiment [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From February 6 to February 25, various consumer sectors, including food and beverage, have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable increases in consumer electronics (14.33%), passenger vehicles (12.45%), and media (11.32%) [7]. - The food and beverage sector's performance is supported by a healthy inventory level in the dairy sector, which is maintained at around 20 days [8]. Investment Recommendations - Despite a general slowdown in high growth within the food and beverage industry compared to a decade ago, emerging markets present new investment opportunities. Recommended sectors for 2025 include soft drinks, pre-mixed beverages, snacks, and yeast products [10]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Jingzai Foods, Lihigh Foods, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Angel Yeast, Xianle Health, Zhongjing Foods, and Yingjia Gongjiu [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the index encountering resistance around 3374 points during the day [2][3][7] - Key sectors performing well included automotive parts, robotics, photovoltaic equipment, and electronic components, while engineering consulting services, aviation, precious metals, and jewelry sectors lagged [3][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3388.21 points, up 1.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.93% to 10,955.65 points [7][8] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 14.16 times and 39.31 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16] - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 19,700 billion, above the median of the past three years, supported by positive domestic fiscal policies and expectations of monetary easing [3][16] - There is a noticeable trend of asset allocation shifting towards equity markets, with foreign institutional interest in A-shares increasing due to policy optimization and low valuations [3][16] - The market is expected to exhibit characteristics of technology leadership and defensive dividends, suggesting that investors should seize structural opportunities while balancing growth and defense [3][16] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, robotics, electronic components, and semiconductor sectors [3][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on technology and defensive sectors as key investment opportunities [5][12][14] - The communication and semiconductor industries are identified as leading sectors, with significant growth potential due to advancements in AI and data processing technologies [23][24][28] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation towards cleaner and smarter operations, with a stable demand forecast despite challenges in resource availability [29][30][32] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,380.21, up by 1.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.28 and 39.64, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [12][14] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, reflecting a mixed global market sentiment [4] Industry Analysis - The electric vehicle sector is leading the market, with strong performance in related industries such as optical electronics and consumer electronics [5][8] - The AI and robotics sectors are gaining traction, with significant investments in humanoid robots and computing power equipment [17][18] - The coal industry is projected to maintain its status as a primary energy source in China, with a focus on enhancing production efficiency and environmental sustainability [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly in traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment [18][32] - In the AI sector, attention is drawn to companies involved in humanoid robotics and computing power, as well as those benefiting from the growth of AI applications [17][38] - The coal sector is recommended for investment due to its high dividend yield and stable performance, despite recent price fluctuations [32] Key Data Updates - The report notes a significant increase in the export of optical modules, with a 60% year-on-year growth, indicating strong demand in the telecommunications sector [26] - The communication industry index outperformed major indices, with a 1.78% decline, showcasing resilience amid broader market challenges [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power and utilities sector based on industry valuation levels, performance growth expectations, and development prospects [11][48]. Core Insights - The power and utilities sector is characterized by its stable performance and defensive nature, with significant growth in profitability expected in 2024 compared to the high base of 2023 [48]. - The sector is currently experiencing a favorable environment for large hydropower and nuclear power enterprises, which are noted for their robust profitability and high dividend yields [48]. - The report highlights the ongoing construction and commissioning of new energy projects, including the TB and Hard Beam hydropower stations and the launch of the Zhangzhou nuclear power plant [48]. Market Review - As of February 25, 2025, the CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 0.58%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 2.84%, resulting in a 2.26 percentage point lag [3][14]. - The coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the Qinhuangdao port's Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) closing at 708 RMB/ton, down 5.98% for the month and 7.45% year-to-date [3][18]. - International natural gas prices have surged, with the NYMEX natural gas futures closing at 3.98 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a 29.52% increase for the month [4][23]. Industry Chain Volume and Price - The average coal inventory at major ports increased significantly, totaling 74.99 million tons as of February 24, 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 6.466 million tons [3][22]. - The report notes a rise in the Yangtze River's inflow and outflow rates, with inflow at 7,100 cubic meters per second and outflow at 8,510 cubic meters per second, indicating a year-on-year increase of 13.36% and 22.82%, respectively [5][29]. Power Market Data - The top three regions for proxy electricity purchase prices as of February 2025 are Guangdong (511.3 RMB/MWh), Hainan (489.734 RMB/MWh), and Shandong (473.6 RMB/MWh) [6][30]. - In January 2025, Henan's total electricity consumption was 37.824 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.49% [11][33]. Supply and Demand Situation - In January 2025, Henan's total power generation was 33.377 billion kWh, down 3.95% year-on-year, with hydropower generation increasing by 18.57% to 1.198 billion kWh [11][35]. - The installed capacity in Henan reached 15,072 MW by the end of January 2025, with significant contributions from solar and wind energy [11][37]. Industry and Company News - The report discusses various industry developments, including the implementation of new energy pricing reforms and the construction of new power plants, which are expected to enhance the sector's growth prospects [39][42]. - Notable company announcements include the construction of the Guangdong Lufeng nuclear power plant and the issuance of mid-term notes by major power companies [49][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector experienced a significant decline in January 2025, with the brokerage index dropping 7.26%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.27 percentage points [4][7]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector in January 2025 ranged from 1.343 to 1.416, with a closing average of 1.368, further distancing from the historical average of 1.55 since 2016 [13][41]. - The brokerage sector is expected to see a "Davis Double" effect, where both performance and valuation improve, with potential upward movement towards a 2x P/B valuation in the near future [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2025 Market Review - The brokerage index faced a significant adjustment, marking the largest monthly decline since Q3 2023, with a total trading volume of 647 billion yuan, down 47.8% month-on-month [4][7]. - All 43 listed brokerage firms reported declines, with the top five smallest declines being between -2.22% and -3.25%, while the largest declines reached -19.23% [8][10]. 2. Key Market Factors Affecting January Performance - The equity market faced a downturn, with average daily trading volume dropping 25.2% month-on-month, leading to a decrease in brokerage business sentiment to its lowest since Q4 2024 [20]. - Margin trading balances decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, although year-on-year growth remained at 13.3% [22][24]. - The investment banking sector saw a significant increase in equity financing, reaching 906 billion yuan, a 100.2% increase month-on-month [25]. 3. February 2025 Performance Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see improvements in self-operated business due to a rebound in major equity indices, although fixed income operations may face challenges [29][32]. - The brokerage business sentiment is anticipated to recover to a relatively high level compared to Q4 2024, driven by increased market activity and investor interest in technology stocks [33]. - The overall operating performance for February is expected to show some improvement, but the extent of this improvement should not be overly optimistic [35]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is currently in a consolidation phase, but there are opportunities for investment in leading brokerages and those with significant wealth management capabilities [39]. - Continuous monitoring of the brokerage sector is advised, with a focus on firms with valuations significantly below the sector average [39].