Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Atour Group (ATAT.US) and raises the target price to $31.5, indicating a potential upside of 23.0% from the current price of $25.6 [4][9][22]. Core Insights - Atour Group's revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 1.899 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, exceeding expectations. The growth was driven by rapid store expansion and strong performance in retail business, particularly the Atour Planet brand, which saw a 104% increase in revenue [1][2]. - The company has net opened 140 new stores in Q3 2024, setting a new record for quarterly openings, and has raised its full-year store opening target to 450 [1][3]. - Despite a decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) of 10.5% in Q3 2024 due to high base effects and adverse weather, the report anticipates a narrowing of this decline in Q4 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 1.899 billion, with a 46.7% year-on-year growth. Franchise hotel revenue was RMB 1.179 billion, up 51%, while retail revenue reached RMB 480 million, growing 104% [1][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was RMB 380 million, a 47.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Store Expansion - The company has net opened 360 new stores in 2024, with a target of 450 for the year. Management is confident in reaching 2,000 stores by 2025 [1][3]. Revenue Projections - The report projects that Atour Group's full-year revenue target for 2024, which is set to grow by 48%-52%, is likely to be exceeded due to strong performance in both accommodation and retail segments [3][9]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.5%, with a slight decline attributed to increased sales expenses [9][10]. - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upward for 2024-2026 based on better-than-expected performance and accelerated store expansion [9][10].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at $15.2 for XPEV.US (potential upside of 22%) and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK (potential upside of 18%) [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a strong product cycle, with expected vehicle deliveries reaching 30,000 units in November, supported by strong order performance for models M03 and P7+. This positions the company for significant sales growth in 2024 and 2025, with revised sales forecasts of 188,000 units and 400,000 units respectively [1][2]. - The automotive gross margin has shown continuous improvement, reaching 8.6% in Q3 2024, benefiting from product mix enhancements and supply chain cost reductions. The company anticipates a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to launch four new models and several refreshed versions next year, aiming to sustain sales growth. Additionally, overseas sales have increased by approximately 70% quarter-over-quarter, contributing to 15% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 40.53 billion in 2024, RMB 74.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 140.165 billion in 2026, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 32%, 84%, and 88% respectively [4][16]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 14.2% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 16.9% in 2026, reflecting the positive impact of new platform models [4][16]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 18.5 billion in Q3 2024, although this represents a significant year-over-year decrease [2][4]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.3x for automotive sales and 2.1x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $15.2 for XPEV.US and HKD 59.3 for 9868.HK [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Shangmei Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 44.0, indicating a potential upside of 41.9% from the current price of HKD 31.0 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a leading domestic cosmetics company that has successfully implemented a multi-brand strategy, with its flagship brand, Han Shu, achieving significant growth through targeted marketing on platforms like Douyin [1][2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on the lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive future growth, supported by its diverse product offerings across skincare, baby care, and hair care segments [1][2][3]. - The report highlights the successful alignment of Han Shu's consumer profile with Douyin's user demographics, leveraging innovative marketing strategies such as short dramas to enhance brand visibility and sales [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Multi-Brand Strategy - Shangmei Co., Ltd. has been practicing a multi-brand strategy for nearly 20 years, with its main revenue coming from the Han Shu brand, which has recently dominated the Douyin platform [2][3][4]. - The company aims to develop multiple brands across different consumer segments, from mass to premium, enhancing its market influence [2][3][4]. Channel and Consumer Alignment - Han Shu's success on Douyin is attributed to its alignment with the platform's user demographics, particularly targeting consumers aged 18-34 in lower-tier cities [3][4][5]. - The brand has effectively utilized short drama marketing to regain consumer attention and drive sales, achieving significant viewership and engagement [3][4][5]. Growth Potential - Despite concerns about reliance on a single channel and brand, the report suggests that Shangmei's strategies, including expanding into other channels and enhancing its product lines, will support long-term growth [3][4][5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growing lower-tier market, which represents a significant portion of China's population and consumer spending [3][4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 7,031 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.8% [6][11][141]. - The report anticipates improvements in profit margins, with gross margins expected to reach 74.7% by 2026 [6][11][141]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 44.0 is based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a discount compared to leading domestic cosmetics brands [4][5][118].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to $14, reflecting a potential upside of 6% from the current price of $13.26 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 20.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.2%, which aligns with expectations and prior guidance, primarily due to weak industry demand. The gross margin improved to 24.0%, with an adjusted net margin of 6.3% [2]. - The company completed a $275 million share buyback in Q3 2024 and approved a new $1 billion buyback plan, indicating a commitment to enhancing long-term shareholder returns by allocating over 75% of adjusted net profit for 2025 towards buybacks or dividends [2]. - The report highlights a cautious outlook for Q4 2024, projecting revenue between RMB 31.2 billion and RMB 32.9 billion, which corresponds to a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% to 5% [3]. Financial Projections - The updated financial model forecasts the following revenue and profit figures (in RMB million): - FY24E Revenue: 107,103 - FY25E Revenue: 107,647 - Adjusted Net Profit FY24E: 8,656 - Adjusted Net Profit FY25E: 8,815 - Target PE for FY24E: 6.2x, FY25E: 6.0x [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades JD com (9618 HK/JD US) to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 162/USD 42 [4][5] Core Views - JD com's core categories, particularly digital appliances, are benefiting from the trade-in policy, driving a recovery in sales [4] - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, with digital appliances growing 2 7% YoY [4] - Daily necessities revenue grew 8 0% YoY, with supermarket, apparel, and sports/outdoor categories achieving double-digit growth [4] - Active users grew double-digit YoY for four consecutive quarters, with a 20% YoY increase in shopping users during Double 11 [4] - Q3 2024 gross margin reached 17 3%, up 1 7pp YoY, with adjusted net profit growing 24% YoY to RMB 13 2 billion [5] - JD Retail's operating margin improved by 2 6pp YoY to 5 2%, while JD Logistics' operating margin increased by 4 0pp YoY to 4 7% [5] - The company repurchased USD 3 9 billion in Q3 2024, totaling USD 3 6 billion in the first three quarters [5] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 5 7% YoY in Q4 2024, with full-year revenue projected at RMB 1,135 4 billion for FY24E [4][7] - Gross profit is forecasted to reach RMB 178 3 billion in FY24E, up 11 7% YoY [7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow 27 4% YoY to RMB 44 8 billion in FY24E [7] - The company aims for a high single-digit net profit margin in the long term, driven by economies of scale, product mix optimization, and 3P contributions [5] Valuation and Market Expectations - The target price of HKD 162/USD 42 implies a 10x FY24E P/E ratio [5] - The current price of HKD 137 2/USD 35 19 offers a potential upside of 18%/19% [8] - The 52-week price range for JD com is HKD 81 55-192 3/USD 20 8-47 8 [8] Industry Context - The report covers JD com within the broader internet and e-commerce sector, highlighting its competitive positioning and growth drivers [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba Group [5][17]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY2Q25 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly below market expectations by 1%. Adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion, down 9% year-on-year, but better than market expectations by 3% [3][5]. - The Taobao and Tmall segment showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 1% to RMB 99 billion, driven by a double-digit growth in order volume. The average order value decreased, but the number of buyers reached a historical high during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [4]. - The international e-commerce segment saw a significant revenue increase of 29% to RMB 31.7 billion, primarily driven by the AliExpress Choice business [4]. - Cloud business revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to RMB 29.6 billion, with public cloud products experiencing double-digit growth and AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth. The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 9% [5]. Financial Summary - FY25E revenue forecast is adjusted to RMB 990.5 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 140.7 billion. For FY26E, revenue is projected at RMB 1,064.4 billion and net profit at RMB 145.4 billion [5][7]. - The adjusted target price is set at HKD 91 and USD 94, corresponding to FY25E/FY26E P/E ratios of 11.6x and 11.2x respectively [5][17].

新能源汽车行业 | 行业追踪 浦银国际 行业追踪 2024 北京车展调研： 新时代·新汽车 2024 广州车展调研：新科技·新生活 2024 年 11 月 15 日，第二十二届广州国际汽车展览会在中国进 出口商品交易会展馆正式开启。 根据新闻报道，2024 广州车展全球首发新车 78 台，其中跨国 公司首发车 6 台。广州车展的参展车辆总数达到 1,171 辆，其 中新能源车 512 辆。 多家车企携新发布的新车型或主力车型亮相广州车展。包括小 米 SU7 Ultra、比亚迪的夏、腾势 N9、豹 8、零跑 B10、小鹏 P7+、 蔚来乐道 L60、理想 L6、鸿蒙智行系列等等。中外车企都都在 持续地大力转型新能源和智驾。 首先，从我们参观展览的主观感受来看，本次展会中参展/观展 的人气依然比较高。各家的管理层为自家车企站台行为越发突 出。一方面，广州车展是今年最后一次大型车展，有带动年底 冲量的任务。另一方面，各家车企也会借助本次车展为明年规 划布局做铺垫。 其次，与去年的广州车展和今年的北京车展势一致，中国新能 源汽车自主品牌的高端化和智能化，仍然是主力趋势。其中， 小米带来了小米汽车 SU7 Ultra ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 160 / USD 103, reflecting a potential upside of 34% and 22% respectively from current prices [3][6][18]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in Q3 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of RMB 26.2 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8%. This was 1.4% lower than market expectations. The adjusted net profit was RMB 7.5 billion, also below market expectations by 5.9% [1][3]. - The gaming segment showed mixed results, with total gaming revenue of RMB 20.2 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. Mobile game revenue decreased by 10% due to high base effects from last year, while PC game revenue increased by 29% [2][3]. - The company is expected to see short-term growth driven by strong performance in PC games, particularly with upcoming titles and the return of Blizzard games to the Chinese market [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 26.2 billion, with a gross margin of 62.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 28.6% [1][3]. - Revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E have been adjusted to RMB 105.6 billion and RMB 112.4 billion respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of RMB 31.9 billion and RMB 33.4 billion [3][4]. - The gaming segment's gross margin slightly decreased to 68.8%, while the overall gross margin improved [2][3]. Market Expectations - The target price reflects a P/E ratio of 14.3x for FY25E, indicating confidence in the company's long-term gaming operations and potential for new game releases [3][4]. - The stock is currently trading at HKD 119.5, with a 52-week range of HKD 116 to HKD 185.7, and a market capitalization of HKD 428.9 billion [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 177, indicating a potential upside of 9% from the current price of HKD 162.4 [9][24]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first adjusted profit in Q3 2024, reporting revenue of RMB 7.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, surpassing market expectations by 2%. The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was RMB 236 million, with an adjusted profit margin of 3.2% [7][8]. - The company announced a share buyback plan worth USD 200 million, approximately 2.3% of its current market capitalization [7]. - Strong growth in gaming and advertising segments was highlighted, with daily active users increasing by 4.4% year-on-year to 107 million and monthly active users rising by 2.1% to 348 million, both reaching new highs [8]. - The advertising business grew by 28% year-on-year, driven by increased traffic and the gradual release of user commercial value, with expectations for a 22% year-on-year growth in Q4 advertising revenue [8]. - Gaming revenue surged by 84% year-on-year to RMB 1.82 billion, supported by the success of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," with expectations for a 76% year-on-year growth in Q4 gaming revenue [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: FY22 at RMB 21.9 billion, FY23 at RMB 22.5 billion, FY24E at RMB 26.7 billion, FY25E at RMB 29.5 billion, and FY26E at RMB 32.5 billion [6][12]. - The company is expected to achieve an operating profit of RMB 590 million in FY25 and RMB 1.6 billion in FY26, with adjusted net profits projected to reach RMB 2.2 billion in FY25 and RMB 3.2 billion in FY26 [6][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 34.9%, with expectations for further improvement to 36% in Q4 [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 67.8 to HKD 238.8, with a total market capitalization of HKD 62.05 billion [9][24]. - The report indicates a potential upside of 24% for the US-listed shares, with a target price of USD 23, compared to the current price of USD 18.59 [9][24]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in gaming and advertising, alongside its first adjusted profit, as key drivers for maintaining a positive outlook and "Buy" rating [9][24].